800 Ironwood Dr #834 · Palm Valley, FL 32082

$269,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,117 sqft · Condo public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1992 $241/sqft · 5% below area Est $284k · 5% under $604/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live at the beach! Bright and open two bedroom, two bathroom condo featuring vaulted ceilings and an airy split floor plan filled with natural light. The oversized lanai provides a personal retreat overlooking the tranquil courtyard with a serene water view backdrop. Ideally located less than one mile from the beach, and within minutes of restaurants, shopping and the TPC Sawgrass, this home offers both lifestyle and convenience. Public beach access is just down the road on Solana and is easily accessible by bike or relaxing stroll. Enjoy resort-style amenities including a clubhouse, pool, hot tub, 24hr fitness center, tennis, basketball court, playground and on-site car wash. Boat and RV parking are also available. A fantastic primary residence, vacation retreat, or great investment opportunity in a highly desirable area.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Hot tub
• Natural light

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• POOL
• HOT TUB
• FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-390 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.3% in Palm Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#462 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 342 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $149k; list at $269k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,031 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.22%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,755
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -5.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-56,486
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-27,580
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32082

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 342
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,518 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,030/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$604
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,012

Max offer price $200,031

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-238	-5% $-314	+0% $-390	+5% $-467	+10% $-543
Rent	-10% $-589	-5% $-490	+0% $-390	+5% $-291	+10% $-192
Rate	-1.0pp $-255	-0.5pp $-322	base $-390	+0.5pp $-460	+1.0pp $-531

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Ironwood Dr #133 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1117	$2,295	$2.05	24d	1	0.19mi
7 Cobia St Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1046	$2,500	$2.39	13d	1	0.83mi
46 Ponte Vedra Colony Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	22d	1	0.85mi
71 Ponte Vedra Colony Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$3,200	$3.37	24d	1	0.89mi
11 Arbor Club Dr #214 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,200	$1.97	24d	1	0.96mi
19 Arbor Club Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,095	$1.88	24d	1	0.98mi
5 Arbor Club Dr #103 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	8d	1	1.01mi
562 Ponte Vedra Blvd Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	3.0	1.5	1453	$4,500	$3.10	24d	1	1.10mi
100 Fairway Park Blvd Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	15d	3	1.17mi
908 Shoreline Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$2,100	$2.03	4d	1	1.21mi
622 Ponte Vedra Blvd Unit D4 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1440	$4,500	$3.12	24d	1	1.29mi
650 Ponte Vedra Blvd Unit E Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1406	$3,995	$2.84	24d	1	1.38mi
657 Ponte Vedra Blvd Unit 657C Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$6,500	$5.30	24d	1	1.47mi
218 Cranes Lake Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,950	$1.61	15d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $604 · $7,248/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,000 Active 123 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $269,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,999 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,999 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,999 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,999 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,999 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,999 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,999 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-02-09
    listed $289,999 Active 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Live at the beach! Bright and open two bedroom, two bathroom condo featuring vaulted ceilings and an airy split floor plan filled with natural light. The oversized lanai provides a personal retreat overlooking the tranquil courtyard with a serene water view backdrop. Ideally located less than one mile from the beach, and within minutes of restaurants, shopping and the TPC Sawgrass, this home offers both lifestyle and convenience. Public beach access is just down the road on Solana and is easily accessible by bike or relaxing stroll. Enjoy resort-style amenities including a clubhouse, pool, hot tub, 24hr fitness center, tennis, basketball court, playground and on-site car wash. Boat and RV parking are also available. A fantastic primary residence, vacation retreat, or great investment opportunity in a highly desirable area.

16. 2026-01-26
    historical $1,800
17. 2025-12-30
    price $1,800
18. 2025-10-11
    price $1,900
19. 2025-10-10
    historical $1,900
20. 2025-10-10
    listed $1,900
21. 2025-09-25
    historical $2,100
22. 2025-09-23
    listed $2,100
23. 2025-08-14
    price $1,975
24. 2025-06-23
    listed $2,100
25. 2025-06-07
    historical $2,200
26. 2025-05-24
    listed $2,200
27. 2025-05-24
    historical $2,200
28. 2025-05-23
    listed $2,200
29. 2010-06-21
    historical 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Very nicely appointed w/neutral colors throughout. View of corner of golf course and grounds. Very private quiet location in back of community. Pool, Tennis, fitness center,car wash station and located within walking distance of shopping, restaurants, cleaners and bike to the beach.

30. 2009-12-21
    listed $155,000 285-char remark

    Show marketing remark (285 chars)

    Very nicely appointed w/neutral colors throughout. View of corner of golf course and grounds. Very private quiet location in back of community. Pool, Tennis, fitness center,car wash station and located within walking distance of shopping, restaurants, cleaners and bike to the beach.

31. 2001-10-17
    historical
32. 2001-10-15
    soldstatus $149,000
33. 2001-08-06
    listed $149,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,030 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,030 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$3,030
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,417
• − Management: −$2,417
• − HOA: −$7,248
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$9,140
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,194
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Valley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #462
• US rank: #8349

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Valley, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,289
• Household income: $124,558
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 672.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -435.26%
• Current HPI: 306.134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.39%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+94.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $289,999 realMLS
• 2026-01-26 Rental Removed $1,800 APPFOLIO
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $1,800 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $1,900 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-10 Rental Removed $1,900 NEFLMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed for Rent $1,900 NEFLMLS
• 2025-09-25 Rental Removed $2,100 RENTLY
• 2025-09-23 Listed for Rent $2,100 RENTLY
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $1,975 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-23 Listed for Rent $2,100 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-07 Rental Removed $2,200 APPFOLIO
• 2025-05-24 Listed for Rent $2,200 APPFOLIO
• 2025-05-24 Rental Removed $2,200 NEFLMLS
• 2025-05-23 Listed for Rent $2,200 NEFLMLS
• 2010-06-21 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2009-12-21 Listed $155,000 realMLS
• 2001-10-17 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2001-10-15 Sold (MLS) $149,000 realMLS
• 2001-08-06 Listed $149,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,030 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.