19352 Acorn Hill Dr · Porter Heights, TX 77302

$235,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1994 0.92 ac lot $168/sqft · 9% below area Est $258k · 9% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your private country retreat on nearly one acre in Acorn Hill Estates. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home has been beautifully updated with a fully renovated kitchen, bathrooms, and stylish new flooring throughout. Rustic wood accent walls add warmth and character, creating a cozy yet modern feel. Step outside and enjoy your own peaceful backyard oasis featuring a private pond, mature trees, and space to relax or entertain. The outdoor covered pad and additional outbuildings offer endless possibilities for hobbies, storage, or a future workshop. Experience the perfect blend of country living and modern updates while still being conveniently located near Conroe amenities.

Key facts

• Elegant backsplash
• New kitchen
• New flooring

Tags

• PRIVATE COUNTRY RETREAT
• NEW KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE SOFT CLOSING CABINETRY
• ELEGANT BACKSPLASH
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.57%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,508
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -8.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16996 Ranch Cir	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (0%)	7mo	$349,900	$250	59
19286 Walnut Hills Dr	0.15mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,568 (+12%)	10mo	$270,000	$172	58
16643 Fm 1485 Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+8%)	2mo	$224,900	$149	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-21,519
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,333
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,866/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $235,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    price $235,000 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Welcome to your private country retreat on nearly one acre in Acorn Hill Estates. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home has been beautifully updated with a fully renovated kitchen, bathrooms, and stylish new flooring throughout. Rustic wood accent walls add warmth and character, creating a cozy yet modern feel. Step outside and enjoy your own peaceful backyard oasis featuring a private pond, mature trees, and space to relax or entertain. The outdoor covered pad and additional outbuildings offer endless possibilities for hobbies, storage, or a future workshop. Experience the perfect blend of country living and modern updates while still being conveniently located near Conroe amenities.

15. 2026-04-04
    price $245,000 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Welcome to your private country retreat on nearly one acre in Acorn Hill Estates. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home has been beautifully updated with a fully renovated kitchen, bathrooms, and stylish new flooring throughout. Rustic wood accent walls add warmth and character, creating a cozy yet modern feel. Step outside and enjoy your own peaceful backyard oasis featuring a private pond, mature trees, and space to relax or entertain. The outdoor covered pad and additional outbuildings offer endless possibilities for hobbies, storage, or a future workshop. Experience the perfect blend of country living and modern updates while still being conveniently located near Conroe amenities.

16. 2026-03-02
    listed $255,000 Active 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Welcome to your private country retreat on nearly one acre in Acorn Hill Estates. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home has been beautifully updated with a fully renovated kitchen, bathrooms, and stylish new flooring throughout. Rustic wood accent walls add warmth and character, creating a cozy yet modern feel. Step outside and enjoy your own peaceful backyard oasis featuring a private pond, mature trees, and space to relax or entertain. The outdoor covered pad and additional outbuildings offer endless possibilities for hobbies, storage, or a future workshop. Experience the perfect blend of country living and modern updates while still being conveniently located near Conroe amenities.

17. 2025-12-16
    soldstatus
18. 2018-07-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,866 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,435/yr (+$203/mo · 130.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,866
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,110
• − Management: −$2,110
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$888
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$213
• After-tax cash flow: $3,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,866 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.