432 Clifton Bradley Dr · Oglethorpe, GA 31068

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 976 sqft · Other · 315 Days on market

Built 1960 0.27 ac lot $41/sqft · 103% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great little fixer. Call to see property. 478-212-3377 Lavern Hershberger Realtor

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 315 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#569 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Macon County (town): math 5% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #169 of 174 in GA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Macon County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 315 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 315 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.56%
• DSCR: 3.07
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $19,702
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: 103.03%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $36,963
• Equity at exit: $22,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.84×
• Total profit: $87,819
• Equity at exit: $39,263

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31068

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $40,000 Active 315 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 314 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 313 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 312 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 311 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 309 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 306 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 305 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $40,000 Active 304 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 303 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 299 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 298 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 297 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 296 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $40,000 Active 295 DOM
17. 2025-08-07
    listed $40,000 New 81-char remark

    Show marketing remark (81 chars)

    Great little fixer. Call to see property. 478-212-3377 Lavern Hershberger Realtor

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$864
• − Management: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,168
• After-tax cash flow: $4,046/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Macon County
• NCES district ID: 1303450
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $29,832
• Composite: 7.25/100
• National rank: #9957
• State rank: #169 of 174 in GA

Livability — Oglethorpe

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #24994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oglethorpe, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,757

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,210 people
• By 2030: 11,442 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 9,901 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 8,575 · -29.8%
• By 2075: 6,047 · -50.5%
• By 2100: 4,043 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 31% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: D (+17.9) · D 58.8% · R 40.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: 30.9pp · 2024: 17.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.9 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+27.2 2012: D+34.8 2008: D+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Current HPI: 192.8026
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-07 Listed $40,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $27 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.