200 Retreat Dr #7 · Graham, TX 76450

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 273 Days on market

Built 2017 2,396 sqft lot $248/sqft · 18% below area Est $201k · 38% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If your heart yearns for a cozy place to enjoy the amazing views of Possum Kingdom Lake and the pure peaceful bliss of life surrounded by nature, you don't want to miss this fully furnished rustic cabin located in The Retreat at Chapel Hill! Situated at the top of the drive overlooking the lake and the State Park, you will be greeted by an exquisite garden area abuzz with pollinators that will welcome you to sit and soak in the relaxation. When you're ready to head inside, the efficiency style cabin offers entry through an enclosed sunroom and extra bunk room (so you'll have room for guests) before opening up to a spacious abode. The living area is roomy enough for settling in for your favorite movie or gather round with friends for sharing lake stories after a day on the water. The kitchen area is separated by a convenient high-top bar that provides dining space, storage, and a great place for happy hour. One side of the kitchen is ideal for food prep and countertop space, the other has a nice desk spot for tending to work if you must. On the opposite side of the room, there is space for a queen-sized bedroom set and a walk-in closet provides storage space. The full-size bathroom features a shower, newer water heater, and plenty of space for changing. This place is ideal for a weekend getaway or summer vacation home, or it could be used as a vacation rental investment property. Most furnishings, home supplies, and decor will come with the property ~ just bring your necessities and prepare to be in love with the PK Lake Life! Short-term rental use currently prohibited; investors seeking income production would be allowed to offer a minimum six-month lease term.

Key facts

• Enclosed sunroom
• High-top bar
• Extra bunk room

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED RUSTIC CABIN
• EXQUISITE GARDEN AREA
• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• EXTRA BUNK ROOM
• SPACIOUS ABODE
• HIGH-TOP BAR

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $124,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$201,167) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $97k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $79k (36.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $79k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.3% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#232 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety C-.
• Graford ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #817 of 1,141 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Palo Pinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palo Pinto County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,003 (36.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.40%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,167
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -37.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-30,300
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-39,445
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76450

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $790 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $893/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $989

Max offer price $97,102

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,900 Active 273 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 272 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 271 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 270 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 269 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 266 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 263 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 262 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 261 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $124,900 Active 259 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $124,900 Active 257 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,500 Active 256 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,500 Active 255 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 254 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,500 Active 253 DOM
17. 2026-02-22
    price $129,500 1695-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1695 chars)

    If your heart yearns for a cozy place to enjoy the amazing views of Possum Kingdom Lake and the pure peaceful bliss of life surrounded by nature, you don't want to miss this fully furnished rustic cabin located in The Retreat at Chapel Hill! Situated at the top of the drive overlooking the lake and the State Park, you will be greeted by an exquisite garden area abuzz with pollinators that will welcome you to sit and soak in the relaxation. When you're ready to head inside, the efficiency style cabin offers entry through an enclosed sunroom and extra bunk room (so you'll have room for guests) before opening up to a spacious abode. The living area is roomy enough for settling in for your favorite movie or gather round with friends for sharing lake stories after a day on the water. The kitchen area is separated by a convenient high-top bar that provides dining space, storage, and a great place for happy hour. One side of the kitchen is ideal for food prep and countertop space, the other has a nice desk spot for tending to work if you must. On the opposite side of the room, there is space for a queen-sized bedroom set and a walk-in closet provides storage space. The full-size bathroom features a shower, newer water heater, and plenty of space for changing. This place is ideal for a weekend getaway or summer vacation home, or it could be used as a vacation rental investment property. Most furnishings, home supplies, and decor will come with the property ~ just bring your necessities and prepare to be in love with the PK Lake Life! Short-term rental use currently prohibited; investors seeking income production would be allowed to offer a minimum six-month lease term.

18. 2025-09-19
    listed $135,000 Active 1695-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1695 chars)

    If your heart yearns for a cozy place to enjoy the amazing views of Possum Kingdom Lake and the pure peaceful bliss of life surrounded by nature, you don't want to miss this fully furnished rustic cabin located in The Retreat at Chapel Hill! Situated at the top of the drive overlooking the lake and the State Park, you will be greeted by an exquisite garden area abuzz with pollinators that will welcome you to sit and soak in the relaxation. When you're ready to head inside, the efficiency style cabin offers entry through an enclosed sunroom and extra bunk room (so you'll have room for guests) before opening up to a spacious abode. The living area is roomy enough for settling in for your favorite movie or gather round with friends for sharing lake stories after a day on the water. The kitchen area is separated by a convenient high-top bar that provides dining space, storage, and a great place for happy hour. One side of the kitchen is ideal for food prep and countertop space, the other has a nice desk spot for tending to work if you must. On the opposite side of the room, there is space for a queen-sized bedroom set and a walk-in closet provides storage space. The full-size bathroom features a shower, newer water heater, and plenty of space for changing. This place is ideal for a weekend getaway or summer vacation home, or it could be used as a vacation rental investment property. Most furnishings, home supplies, and decor will come with the property ~ just bring your necessities and prepare to be in love with the PK Lake Life! Short-term rental use currently prohibited; investors seeking income production would be allowed to offer a minimum six-month lease term.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $893 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,286 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,392/yr (+$116/mo · 155.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$893
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$758
• − Management: −$758
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$4,184
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,004
• After-tax cash flow: $-884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Graford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,275
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #10225
• State rank: #817 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Graham

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #5580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,890

Population outlook (Palo Pinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,500 people
• By 2030: 27,079 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 26,135 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,215 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 23,416 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 20,300 · -26.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Palo Pinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.1) · D 16.1% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.2pp · 2024: -67.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.1 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+64.1 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+48.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.82%
• Current HPI: 198.6373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $129,500 NTREIS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $135,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $893 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.