HARBORTON Plan · Captains Cove, VA 23356

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · SingleFamily · 239 Days on market

Good condition $147/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Captains Cove is the Eastern Shore of Virginias fastest growing Golf & Waterfront community; close to Chincoteague Island, Wallops Island and Ocean City MD. Amenities offered at Captains Cove: 9 Hole Pristine Golf Course, indoor/outdoor pools (2), fitness center, basketball, tennis & pickle ball courts, boat ramp, docks, playground, biking & walking trails, dog park, security and so much more.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Pickle ball courts
• Tennis courts

Tags

• INDOOR OUTDOOR POOLS
• FITNESS CENTER
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLE BALL COURTS
• BOAT RAMP

🏗️ New construction. The $239,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $280,742.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-595 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#371 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kegotank Elementary (math 26% / reading 51%, grade F, #924 of 1,108 statewide, top 84%, 479 students, 104% FRL); Arcadia Middle (math 35% / reading 54%, grade D, #278 of 342 statewide, top 82%, 482 students, 102% FRL); Arcadia High (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #213 of 319 statewide, top 69%, 713 students, 117% FRL) — zoned schools average 108% FRL vs 63% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 364 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,934 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.08%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,742
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -14.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3902 Captains Corridor	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,668 (-0%)	6mo	$230,000	$138	81
2218 Captains Corridor	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,671 (+0%)	0mo	$297,000	$178	80
2521 Jolly Rodger Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,760 (+5%)	5mo	$249,000	$141	79
2598 Jolly Rodger Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,875 (+12%)	5mo	$325,000	$173	73
2146 Buccaneer Blvd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-3%)	5mo	$238,500	$147	73
2301 Spinnaker St	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,705 (+2%)	5mo	$338,000	$198	70
2244 Mayflower Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-3%)	5mo	$225,000	$139	67
3199 Navigator Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,795 (+8%)	3mo	$375,000	$209	60
2252 Jolly Rodger Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,860 (+11%)	7mo	$340,000	$183	56
38027 Davey Jones Blvd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-10%)	0mo	$285,000	$191	55
3349 Navigator Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-12%)	1mo	$248,000	$169	52
2141 Fleming Rd	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,813 (+9%)	0mo	$265,000	$146	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-29,259
• Equity at exit: $99,288

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-17,007
• Equity at exit: $134,653

Cash invested: $78,608 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 69 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 29.6 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $325,000 ($207/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 1% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -18.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 23356

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$351 /mo · $4,211/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$147
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-595

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,642

Max offer price $194,707

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-401	-5% $-498	+0% $-595	+5% $-692	+10% $-789
Rent	-10% $-744	-5% $-669	+0% $-595	+5% $-520	+10% $-445
Rate	-1.0pp $-453	-0.5pp $-523	base $-595	+0.5pp $-667	+1.0pp $-741

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,186
• Closing costs: $8,422
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3928 Captains Corridor Greenbackville, VA	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,700	$1.30	62d	1	0.29mi
38040 Davey Jones Blvd Greenbackville, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	62d	1	0.57mi
38019 Fathom Rd Greenbackville, VA	3.0	2.5	1440	$2,000	$1.39	70d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail $147/mo · $1,764/yr

• Likely covers: waterpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $239,000 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $239,000 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $239,000 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $239,000 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $239,000 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $239,000 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $239,000 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $239,000 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $239,000 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $239,000 Active 224 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $239,000 Active 223 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $239,000 Active 222 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $239,000 Active 221 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $239,000 Active 220 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $239,000 Active 218 DOM
18. 2026-07-17
    days on market $239,000 Active 217 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $239,000 Active 216 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $239,000 Active 214 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $239,000 Active 213 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $239,000 Active 212 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $239,000 Active 211 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $239,000 Active 210 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $239,000 Active 209 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $239,000 Active 207 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $239,000 Active 206 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $239,000 Active 205 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $239,000 Active 204 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 203 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 202 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 201 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $239,000 Active 200 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $239,000 Active 199 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $239,000 Active 198 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $239,000 Active 197 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $239,000 Active 196 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $239,000 Active 193 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $239,000 Active 192 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $239,000 Active 191 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $239,000 Active 190 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $239,000 Active 188 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $239,000 Active 187 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $239,000 Active 186 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $239,000 Active 185 DOM
46. 2026-06-15
    days on market $239,000 Active 184 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $239,000 Active 183 DOM
48. 2026-06-12
    days on market $239,000 Active 182 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $239,000 Active 179 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,000 Active 178 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,726
• − Property taxes: −$4,211
• − Insurance: −$1,404
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − HOA: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$8,167
• Taxable loss: −$12,227
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,935
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,350–$25,050 screening

This home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, ready for minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves aesthetics and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances the bathrooms and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Kegotank Elementary F VA #924/1,108 Nat'l #20,973/41,679 Middle Arcadia Middle D VA #278/342 Nat'l #4,747/14,009 High Arcadia High B- VA #213/319 Nat'l #2,821/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Captains Cove

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #14910

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Captains Cove, VA
• County: Accomack · 32,072 people
• Population (ZIP): 1,738
• Household income: $98,934
• Rent vs Own: 5.5% rent · 94.5% own

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Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 6% Subsaharan African 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Current HPI: 191.9035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-12 Listed $239,000 Zillow