3012 Highbank Dr · Katy, TX 77336

$306,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,263 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $371k · 17% under $97/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Sherman Floor Plan - This new two-story home features a luxurious owner’s suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing (last modified 2026-06-15)
• Financial info: List price noted (listing details provided)
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 parking spaces total)
• Security:
• Utilities:
• Home design: Sherman plan
• Construction: New construction (Sherman plan)
• Exterior features: Specified as new construction (Spec inventory); Address: 3012 Highbank Dr, Katy, TX 77493

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling:
• Interior features: Open living area (2,263 sq ft living area noted)
• Laundry & utility:

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $307k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-296/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 587 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,701 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $371,132
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6018 Bella Breeze Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,294 (+1%)	0mo	$349,990	$153	76
3056 Huntersville Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-11%)	0mo	$346,990	$172	75
27723 Oasis Ridge Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,294 (+1%)	1mo	$375,990	$164	74
4784 Luna Landing Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,168 (-4%)	0mo	$335,990	$155	69
6418 Breakaway Grove Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,263 (0%)	0mo	$299,490	$132	68
27507 Crystalline Sage Ln	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,170 (-4%)	0mo	$364,990	$168	65
27334 Leeward Jetty Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,201 (-3%)	0mo	$357,990	$163	62
27303 Leeward Jetty Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,340 (+3%)	0mo	$357,330	$153	59
27519 Crystalline Sage Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,035 (-10%)	0mo	$371,990	$183	56
4680 Peony Green Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,056 (-9%)	0mo	$343,990	$167	55
3024 Avalos Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,539 (+12%)	0mo	$392,990	$155	52
27602 Loyalty Islands Ln	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,015 (-11%)	1mo	$354,990	$176	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-51,217
• Equity at exit: $45,773

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-46,212
• Equity at exit: $26,543

Cash invested: $85,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 587
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,777 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,610
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$384 /mo · $4,605/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$97
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,808

Max offer price $303,416

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $81	+0% $-25	+5% $-131	+10% $-237
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-134	+0% $-25	+5% $85	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $53	base $-25	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-185

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,748
• Closing costs: $9,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	26d	1	0.19mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	26d	1	0.21mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	0.24mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	0.27mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	26d	1	0.28mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	14d	1	0.30mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	5d	1	0.30mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	0.36mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	0.38mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	0.40mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	24d	1	0.48mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	17d	1	0.48mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	14d	1	0.49mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	0.50mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	19d	1	0.56mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	45d	1	0.57mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.62mi
4633 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$3,995	$1.49	26d	1	0.63mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	22d	1	0.67mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	0d	1	0.71mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,599	$1.21	1d	1	0.73mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	45d	1	0.73mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	14d	1	0.94mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	0.95mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	45d	1	1.08mi
408 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,265	$1.43	1d	1	1.41mi
404 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,290	$1.38	1d	1	1.41mi
401 San Miguel Creek Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,945	$1.23	5d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $97 · $1,164/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $306,990 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 607-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listing id $299,990 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 387-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $299,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,196
• − Property taxes: −$4,605
• − Insurance: −$1,535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,666
• − Management: −$2,666
• − HOA: −$1,164
• − Depreciation: −$8,931
• Taxable loss: −$5,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,305
• After-tax cash flow: $1,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B