5388 Smith Rd · Curtis, MI 48737

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 1950 8.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

VACANT. CASH ONLY. THE SELLER HAS NEVER LIVED IN THIS HOME AND HAS NO KNOWLEDGE OF WORKINGS OF HOME. ELECTRICITY IS ON. THERE IS NO WATER OR ACTIVE PLUMBING. WE BELIEVE THE PROPERTY NEEDS A NEW WELL. PRICED ACCORDINGLY.

Key facts

• 8.6 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 8.6-acre irregular lot; Road frontage on a county road; Additional outbuilding: shed(s)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Additional detached parking/garage structures; Deck provides outdoor access
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Ranch-style home; One level; East-facing
• Construction: Built in 1950; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Gentle sloping lot; Many trees and wooded areas; Native plants; Rolling terrain with views; Deck; Front porch; Shingle roof; Pasture and rural views

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (18 x 12)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (10 x 10); Second bedroom (10 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Kitchen; Laundry room; Solar energy generation
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room (8 x 8)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Oscoda Area Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #313 of 540 in MI (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Alcona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $684 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Alcona County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $95k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $86,459 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.52%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $6,834
• Equity at exit: $31,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $30,305
• Equity at exit: $40,229

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48737

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $865 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $541/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $738

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 219-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $95,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,002 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$461/yr (+$38/mo · 85.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$541
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$830
• − Management: −$830
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable loss: −$386
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$93
• After-tax cash flow: $1,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oscoda Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2626970
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,275
• Composite: 28.6/100
• National rank: #6714
• State rank: #313 of 540 in MI

Livability — Curtis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,121

Population outlook (Alcona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,071 people
• By 2030: 8,331 · -8.2%
• By 2040: 6,852 · -24.5%
• By 2050: 5,691 · -37.3%
• By 2075: 4,229 · -53.4%
• By 2100: 3,149 · -65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alcona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.7) · D 28.6% · R 70.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -41.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.7 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.72%
• Current HPI: 129.3386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+58.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $95,000 Greater Lansing AoR
• 2026-06-09 Listed $95,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-08-26 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-26 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-08-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2024-05-31 Price Changed $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-31 Price Changed $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $120,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-05-30 Price Changed $120,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-10-09 Listed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-09 Listed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-09 Listed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-10-09 Listed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2019-11-12 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records
• 2019-11-12 Sold (MLS) $59,900 WWMLS
• 2019-08-03 Listed $59,900 WWMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $541 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.