1146 Cassadaga Rd · Cherry Creek, NY 14138

$79,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,090 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 301 Days on market

Built 1900 0.66 ac lot $38/sqft · 70% below area ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious five bedroom, two bath home with incredible potential! This solid property sits on a large lot and features an oversized two-car garage, already set up for a car shop—perfect for hobbyists or those needing extra workspace. Inside, you’ll find beautiful natural woodwork throughout, a cozy wood-burning fireplace, and plenty of room to make this house your own. Metal roof and many newer windows. While it could use some TLC, the strong bones and character provide a great opportunity to create your dream home. Don’t miss the chance to add your personal touch and unlock the full potential of this property!

Key facts

• Natural woodwork
• Metal roof
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• OVERSIZED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• NATURAL WOODWORK
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• METAL ROOF
• NEWER WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,081 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Pine Valley Central School District (South Dayton) (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #512 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.21%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,403
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -70.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $47,575
• Equity at exit: $51,923

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $121,886
• Equity at exit: $95,658

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14138

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,766/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $864

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 301 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 300 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 299 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 298 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 296 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 288 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 286 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 284 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 283 DOM
15. 2026-02-27
    price $79,900 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Spacious five bedroom, two bath home with incredible potential! This solid property sits on a large lot and features an oversized two-car garage, already set up for a car shop—perfect for hobbyists or those needing extra workspace. Inside, you’ll find beautiful natural woodwork throughout, a cozy wood-burning fireplace, and plenty of room to make this house your own. Metal roof and many newer windows. While it could use some TLC, the strong bones and character provide a great opportunity to create your dream home. Don’t miss the chance to add your personal touch and unlock the full potential of this property!

16. 2025-10-20
    price $89,900 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Spacious five bedroom, two bath home with incredible potential! This solid property sits on a large lot and features an oversized two-car garage, already set up for a car shop—perfect for hobbyists or those needing extra workspace. Inside, you’ll find beautiful natural woodwork throughout, a cozy wood-burning fireplace, and plenty of room to make this house your own. Metal roof and many newer windows. While it could use some TLC, the strong bones and character provide a great opportunity to create your dream home. Don’t miss the chance to add your personal touch and unlock the full potential of this property!

17. 2025-08-21
    listed $109,000 Active 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    Spacious five bedroom, two bath home with incredible potential! This solid property sits on a large lot and features an oversized two-car garage, already set up for a car shop—perfect for hobbyists or those needing extra workspace. Inside, you’ll find beautiful natural woodwork throughout, a cozy wood-burning fireplace, and plenty of room to make this house your own. Metal roof and many newer windows. While it could use some TLC, the strong bones and character provide a great opportunity to create your dream home. Don’t miss the chance to add your personal touch and unlock the full potential of this property!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,766 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,766 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,812
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$2,766
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,265
• − Management: −$1,265
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $3,317
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$796
• After-tax cash flow: $3,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Valley Central School District (South Dayton)
• NCES district ID: 3623070
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 21.00%
• Median HH income: $44,734
• Composite: 34.76/100
• National rank: #5129
• State rank: #512 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cherry Creek

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1081
• US rank: #21746

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,019

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.33%
• Current HPI: 374.5823
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $79,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $89,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $109,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,766 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.