408 Dubois St · Sumner, IL 62466

$19,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1939 6,098 sqft lot ↓ 35% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vinyl Sided 4 to 5 Bedroom Home with 9 Rooms ~ 1,572 Square Foot! Immediate Possession! 12 X 16 Deck, Main Level Laundry! 3 Possible bedrooms on main level, 2 possible bedrooms on the upper level. Bathroom has shower. 100 Amp Breaker.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1939
• Listed 127 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $662 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#582 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Red Hill CUSD 10 (town): math 17% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #294 of 620 in IL (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $720 of equity ($135 loan paydown + $585 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price; built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $17,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 47.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 145.52%
• DSCR: 7.47
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,208
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10207 Perry Blvd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (-8%)	18mo	$165,000	$114	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.16×
• Total profit: $44,563
• Equity at exit: $8,768

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.24×
• Total profit: $99,602
• Equity at exit: $13,513

Cash invested: $5,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62466

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,064 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$102
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $820/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $226

Max offer price $19,500

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $673	-5% $668	+0% $662	+5% $657	+10% $651
Rent	-10% $578	-5% $620	+0% $662	+5% $704	+10% $746
Rate	-1.0pp $672	-0.5pp $667	base $662	+0.5pp $657	+1.0pp $652

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,875
• Closing costs: $585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $19,500 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,500 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,500 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,500 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,500 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,500 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $19,500 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,500 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $19,500 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $19,500 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $19,500 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $19,500 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,500 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,500 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,500 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,500 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-03-05
    price $19,500 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Vinyl Sided 4 to 5 Bedroom Home with 9 Rooms ~ 1,572 Square Foot! Immediate Possession! 12 X 16 Deck, Main Level Laundry! 3 Possible bedrooms on main level, 2 possible bedrooms on the upper level. Bathroom has shower. 100 Amp Breaker.

18. 2026-02-13
    listed $29,900 Active 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    Vinyl Sided 4 to 5 Bedroom Home with 9 Rooms ~ 1,572 Square Foot! Immediate Possession! 12 X 16 Deck, Main Level Laundry! 3 Possible bedrooms on main level, 2 possible bedrooms on the upper level. Bathroom has shower. 100 Amp Breaker.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,092
• − Property taxes: −$820
• − Insurance: −$98
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,022
• − Management: −$1,022
• − Depreciation: −$567
• Taxable income: $8,152
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,956
• After-tax cash flow: $5,989/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Hill CUSD 10
• NCES district ID: 1722130
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,821
• Composite: 23.27/100
• National rank: #7929
• State rank: #294 of 620 in IL

Livability — Sumner

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #582
• US rank: #12146

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sumner, IL
• Population (ZIP): 4,184

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,664 people
• By 2030: 15,378 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 14,897 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 14,267 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 12,048 · -23.1%
• By 2100: 9,538 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.2) · D 21.0% · R 77.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.9pp · 2024: -56.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.2 2020: R+54.0 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+30.8 2008: R+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-34.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $19,500 IRMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $29,900 IRMLS

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $820 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.