849 Tundra Loop · Groveland, FL 34736

$375,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Land · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 6,098 sqft lot $109/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Under Construction. The new single-story Walsh provides 4 bedrooms with a seamless open layout, perfect for modern lifestyles. Three secondary bedrooms share a private hallway near the front of the home, leading to an inviting open-concept floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining nook and family room. A nearby covered patio encourages simple indoor-outdoor living, while a luxurious owner’s suite is nestled into a private rear corner with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A spacious three-car garage completes the home. With “Everything’s Included”, luxury and value go hand in hand. Enjoy connectivity, green buildin

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Private hallway
• Natural landscapes

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE HALLWAY
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• NATURAL LANDSCAPES

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $376k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-230 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Groveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#416 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clermont Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 572 students, 60% FRL); South Lake High School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 2,169 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 585 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $277,178 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-79,318
• Equity at exit: $56,061

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-102,850
• Equity at exit: $32,509

Cash invested: $105,277 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34736

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,772 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,972
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,190/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$109
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,063

Max offer price $335,322

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-17	-5% $-124	+0% $-230	+5% $-337	+10% $-443
Rent	-10% $-449	-5% $-340	+0% $-230	+5% $-121	+10% $-11
Rate	-1.0pp $-41	-0.5pp $-135	base $-230	+0.5pp $-328	+1.0pp $-427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,998
• Closing costs: $11,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
275 Puma Loop Groveland, FL	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,400	$1.41	13d	1	0.19mi
339 Puma Loop Groveland, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,950	$1.40	24d	1	0.34mi
210 Blackstone Creek Rd Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,099	$1.45	24d	1	0.51mi
9488 Black Walnut Dr Clermont, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,400	$1.42	24d	1	0.71mi
904 Laurel View Way Groveland, FL	4.0	2.0	1884	$2,450	$1.30	24d	1	0.84mi
9673 Black Walnut Dr Clermont, FL	4.0	2.5	2505	$2,900	$1.16	24d	1	0.89mi
9673 Black Walnut Dr Unit NA Groveland, FL	4.0	2.5	2505	$2,800	$1.12	15d	1	0.90mi
166 Dakota Ave Groveland, FL	4.0	2.0	2184	$1,200	$0.55	13d	1	1.16mi
176 Dakota Ave Groveland, FL	3.0	2.0	1792	$2,249	$1.26	5d	1	1.20mi
132 Royal Ranch Rd Clermont, FL	3.0	2.5	1628	$2,150	$1.32	24d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $109 · $1,308/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-23
   soldstatus $1,146,857
2. 2026-02-23
   status Pending
3. 2026-02-20
   listed $375,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,190 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,121 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: +$930/yr (+$78/mo · 42.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,061
• − Property taxes: −$2,190
• − Insurance: −$1,880
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,661
• − Management: −$2,661
• − HOA: −$1,308
• − Depreciation: −$10,938
• Taxable loss: −$9,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,265
• After-tax cash flow: $-497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Groveland

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #7397

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Groveland, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 28,001
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,001
• Household income: $90,545
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 216.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.23%
• Current HPI: 265.3457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+205.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $1,146,857 Public Records
• 2026-02-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $375,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid