204 Herman St · Buffalo, NY 14211

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,238 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1890 5,775 sqft lot Est $142k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice single home, spacious for living or a ideal great investment opportunity. Spacious front porch area. Spacious living room and dining room area, updated kitchen, updated plumbing, newer furnace, newer windows. Two bedrooms in the lower level, along with one full bathroom. Quiet back yard area. Showings to begin on November 5, 2021, offers if any will be due on November 12, 2021 at 6:00 p. m.

Key facts

• Newer flooring
• Spacious backyard
• Large attic

Tags

• NEWER FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• LARGE ATTIC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Rectangular lot near public transit; 43 x 132 lot dimensions
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Bedroom on main level; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $836 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,107/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 1804% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $120k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.84%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $142,370
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
189 Reed St	0.14mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,261 (+2%)	10mo	$145,000	$115	78
513 High St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,270 (+3%)	7mo	$95,000	$75	76
255 Reed St	0.18mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,294 (+4%)	6mo	$125,000	$97	74
598 High St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,139 (-8%)	7mo	$115,000	$101	71
23 Guilford St	0.34mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,322 (+7%)	1mo	$190,000	$144	65
635 Jefferson Ave	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,330 (+7%)	1mo	$220,000	$165	57
162 Rose St	0.55mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,336 (+8%)	11mo	$201,000	$150	45
95 Peckham St	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,249 (+1%)	18mo	$150,000	$120	44
70 Camp St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,324 (+7%)	21mo	$245,000	$185	40
18 Paderewski Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-13%)	17mo	$65,000	$60	38
31 Walden Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (+15%)	11mo	$31,000	$22	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $61,779
• Equity at exit: $47,651

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $153,075
• Equity at exit: $68,864

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14211

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,107 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $836

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
983 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$3,202	$3.98	2d	58	0.92mi
1145 Michigan Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	655	$2,049	$3.13	43d	1	0.99mi
408 Winslow Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	14d	1	1.12mi
1155 Main St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	592	$2,300	$3.88	43d	1	1.25mi
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	14d	1	1.27mi
628 Ellicott St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,812	$2.65	2d	5	1.28mi
104 Butler Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	43d	1	1.28mi
1152 Main St Apt 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	14d	1	1.29mi
19 North St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1306	$2,910	$2.23	10d	7	1.30mi
40 North St Unit 306 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$1,950	$1.73	43d	1	1.33mi
489 Ellicott St Unit 36 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	2d	1	1.33mi
76 Chester St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	14d	1	1.34mi
17 N Pearl St Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1077	$2,700	$2.51	23d	1	1.35mi
17 N Pearl St Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1197	$3,100	$2.59	23d	1	1.35mi
44 N Pearl St #5 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	43d	1	1.36mi
19 E Utica St Unit 203 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	14d	1	1.37mi
519 Virginia St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	700	$1,700	$2.43	3d	3	1.39mi
130 Linwood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	23d	1	1.39mi
179 Donaldson Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	3d	1	1.43mi
140 Seymour St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	1.46mi
140 Seymour St Unit First Floor Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 522-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,290
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,023
• − Management: −$2,023
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $8,630
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,071
• After-tax cash flow: $7,956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,663
• Household income: $36,300
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1804.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 9% White 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Current HPI: 357.6438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+41.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $120,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-24 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-08-24 Listed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-03-09 Sold (MLS) $73,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-11-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-11-05 Listed $85,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+14.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $225 · +60.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.