4 Birchwood Dr · Scottsville, NY 14546

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1965 0.44 ac lot Est $178k · 30% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Scottsville, this three-bedroom, one-bath home sits on a generous lot with a large backyard and features original hardwood floors throughout, adding warmth and character that runs through every room. The full basement provides generous storage and endless potential, complementing a property that offers solid bones and classic charm. This is a great opportunity for a buyer looking to enter the market at an accessible price point and build equity through their own personal touches. Delayed Negotiations Tuesday 3/31 @ 12:00pm.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Full basement
• Classic charm

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FULL BASEMENT
• CLASSIC CHARM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $578 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.8% in Scottsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#409 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wheatland-Chili Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #341 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.

Recommended offer $124,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.82%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $177,788
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Birchwood Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,052 (0%)	0mo	$178,200	$169	100
42 E Cavalier Rd	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-4%)	4mo	$220,000	$218	58
548 North Rd	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,196 (+14%)	16mo	$172,300	$144	46
67 W Cavalier Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-4%)	21mo	$152,500	$151	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $16,718
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $62,635
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14546

• Home prices YoY: -10.0%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$390 /mo · $4,686/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,389

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 Robert Quigley Dr Scottsville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1075	$2,275	$2.12	3d	10	0.29mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   listed $124,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,686 · $390/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,686 · $390/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$4,686
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $5,432
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,304
• After-tax cash flow: $5,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wheatland-Chili Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631170
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $57,303
• Composite: 44.69/100
• National rank: #2758
• State rank: #341 of 590 in NY

Livability — Scottsville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #409
• US rank: #7059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 4,450
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,450
• Household income: $95,046
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 55.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.95%
• Current HPI: 260.4192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $124,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,686 · +41.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.