500 West Santa Maria St #124 · Santa Paula, CA 93060

$299,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 234 Days on market

Built 1973 $208/sqft · 37% above area Est $219k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect blend of natural beauty and vibrant and desirable 55+ community living at 500 W Santa Maria Space 124 in Santa Paula. This beautiful manufactured home is nestled against a breathtaking backdrop of surrounding mountains, offering tranquility and stunning views. Step inside and enjoy your spacious living room, with an open concept and the kitchen boasts a convenient new dishwasher, making everyday life a breeze. A just installed heating unit allows for cozy mornings. Step outside and enjoy an exceptional array of community amenities, including a refreshing pool, relaxing spa and sauna, fun pool tables, and a dedicated dog park--everything you need for an active and social lifestyle. This is more than a home; it's your entry to a delightful and amenity-rich community.

Key facts

• Relaxing spa
• Refreshing pool
• New dishwasher

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• NEW DISHWASHER
• REFRESHING POOL
• RELAXING SPA
• DEDICATED DOG PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.0% in Santa Paula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#331 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A-, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Santa Paula Unified (town): math 26% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,004 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Blanchard Elementary (254 students, 76% FRL); Isbell Middle (1,010 students, 72% FRL); Santa Paula High (1,708 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 159 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $300k implies a 384% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.68%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,241
• List price: $299,999
• Delta: 36.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
500 W Santa Maria St #1	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+3%)	6mo	$195,000	$131	86
500 W Santa Maria St #30	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$315,000	$234	84
500 W Santa Maria St #111	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	2mo	$215,000	$140	83
500 W Santa Maria St #54	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	2mo	$263,000	$203	82
720 W Santa Maria St #10	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	3mo	$310,000	$213	82
500 W Santa Maria St #83	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	12mo	$209,000	$139	79
500 W Santa Maria St #103	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,550 (+8%)	15mo	$240,000	$155	71
500 W Santa Maria #43	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	5mo	$87,000	$70	70
500 W Santa Maria St #63	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,566 (+9%)	17mo	$290,000	$185	70
500 W Santa Maria St #78	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,593 (+11%)	12mo	$329,000	$207	67
500 W Santa Maria St #38	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,356 (-6%)	21mo	$230,000	$170	64
720 W Santa Maria St #36	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	21mo	$273,500	$203	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-32,165
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-6,706
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93060

• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,624

Max offer price $299,999

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $465	-5% $361	+0% $258	+5% $154	+10% $50
Rent	-10% $24	-5% $141	+0% $258	+5% $374	+10% $491
Rate	-1.0pp $409	-0.5pp $334	base $258	+0.5pp $180	+1.0pp $101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
325 Princeton St Santa Paula, CA	3.0	2.0	1197	$3,600	$3.01	45d	1	0.30mi
325 Princeton St Santa Paula, CA	3.0	2.0	1197	$3,600	$3.01	3d	1	0.30mi
126 E Ventura St Unit F Santa Paula, CA	2.0	1.0	890	$2,350	$2.64	3d	1	0.65mi
200 W Main St Apt 7 Santa Paula, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,175	$2.42	21d	1	0.66mi
180 Pleasant St Unit D Santa Paula, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$2,100	$2.14	46d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,999 Active 234 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,999 Active 231 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,999 Active 230 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,999 Active 229 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,999 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,999 Active 226 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,999 Active 225 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,999 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,999 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,999 Active 221 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,999 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,999 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,999 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,999 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,999 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,999 Active 213 DOM
17. 2026-02-12
    price $299,999 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of natural beauty and vibrant and desirable 55+ community living at 500 W Santa Maria Space 124 in Santa Paula. This beautiful manufactured home is nestled against a breathtaking backdrop of surrounding mountains, offering tranquility and stunning views. Step inside and enjoy your spacious living room, with an open concept and the kitchen boasts a convenient new dishwasher, making everyday life a breeze. A just installed heating unit allows for cozy mornings. Step outside and enjoy an exceptional array of community amenities, including a refreshing pool, relaxing spa and sauna, fun pool tables, and a dedicated dog park--everything you need for an active and social lifestyle. This is more than a home; it's your entry to a delightful and amenity-rich community.

18. 2025-10-30
    listed $310,000 Active 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of natural beauty and vibrant and desirable 55+ community living at 500 W Santa Maria Space 124 in Santa Paula. This beautiful manufactured home is nestled against a breathtaking backdrop of surrounding mountains, offering tranquility and stunning views. Step inside and enjoy your spacious living room, with an open concept and the kitchen boasts a convenient new dishwasher, making everyday life a breeze. A just installed heating unit allows for cozy mornings. Step outside and enjoy an exceptional array of community amenities, including a refreshing pool, relaxing spa and sauna, fun pool tables, and a dedicated dog park--everything you need for an active and social lifestyle. This is more than a home; it's your entry to a delightful and amenity-rich community.

19. 2025-05-02
    historical
20. 2025-04-01
    listed $260,000 Active
21. 2025-03-29
    historical
22. 2011-12-12
    soldstatus $62,000 Closed
23. 2011-11-18
    historical
24. 2011-11-08
    historical Contingent
25. 2011-10-18
    price $65,000
26. 2011-10-04
    price $73,000
27. 2011-09-20
    price $76,000
28. 2011-07-26
    listed $76,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$1,792
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$430
• After-tax cash flow: $3,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Paula Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601421
• Math proficiency: 26% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,933
• Composite: 29.6/100
• National rank: #11750
• State rank: #1004 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Paula

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #331
• US rank: #11320

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment B- Housing B- Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Paula, CA
• County: Ventura County · 829,955 people
• City population: 34,501
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,501
• Household income: $80,979
• Rent vs Own: 44.0% rent · 56.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1317.0

Population outlook (Ventura County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 895,754 people
• By 2030: 912,134 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 931,454 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 934,609 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 924,899 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 864,712 · -3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% White 18% Two or more races 18% Black 1% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 61%

Political lean MEDSL · Ventura

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 56.1% · R 41.0% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+21.1 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+5.3 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -942.94%
• Current HPI: 333.9105
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+292.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $299,999 CRMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $310,000 CRMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listed $260,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-29 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2011-12-12 Sold (MLS) $62,000 CRMLS
• 2011-11-18 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-11-08 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2011-10-18 Price Changed $65,000 CRMLS
• 2011-10-04 Price Changed $73,000 CRMLS
• 2011-09-20 Price Changed $76,000 CRMLS
• 2011-07-26 Listed $76,500 CRMLS