13 Liberty WH St · Newburgh, NY 12550

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,888 sqft · SingleFamily · 198 Days on market

Built 1890 Poor condition 1,700 sqft lot $85/sqft · 57% below area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom, one bathroom single family home in the Historic District of Newburgh. Brick walkup townhouse style home. Close to shopping, schools and amenities. Sold as-is. Buyer to pay NYS and any local transfer taxes. Cash offers with proof of funds. Please see agent remarks for offer presentation remarks. Property is occupied, no interior access.

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Close to amenities
• Close to shopping

Tags

• HISTORIC DISTRICT
• BRICK WALKUP TOWNHOUSE
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 4.0% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#878 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newburgh City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 565 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.91%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,119
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -57.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Henry Ave	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,976 (+5%)	16mo	$470,000	$238	63
49 Overlook Pl	0.07mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,100 (+11%)	10mo	$375,000	$179	57
35 Carpenter Ave	0.66mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,852 (-2%)	5mo	$225,000	$121	51
21 E Parmenter St	0.25mi	3/3.0	2,046 (+8%)	22mo	$305,000	$149	48
38 E Parmenter St	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,608 (-15%)	14mo	$280,000	$174	44
115 Chestnut Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,906 (+1%)	23mo	$500,000	$262	43
291 Walsh Ave	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,800 (-5%)	14mo	$430,000	$239	42
2 Primavera Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,102 (+11%)	19mo	$585,000	$278	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $31,860
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $85,915
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,000 ($202/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 12550

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 565
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,670 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $1,004

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,115	-5% $1,059	+0% $1,004	+5% $949	+10% $894
Rent	-10% $793	-5% $899	+0% $1,004	+5% $1,110	+10% $1,215
Rate	-1.0pp $1,085	-0.5pp $1,045	base $1,004	+0.5pp $963	+1.0pp $920

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
81 Liberty Street Washington Hts Unit 2 Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.0	1362	$2,700	$1.98	5d	1	0.20mi
81 Liberty St Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.0	1359	$2,700	$1.99	0d	1	0.25mi
4 Grand St Unit 3 Newburgh, NY	4.0	2.0	1560	$3,925	$2.52	119d	1	0.33mi
213 Overlook Pl Newburgh, NY	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,200	$1.56	5d	1	0.42mi
188 Broadway Unit 2 Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.0	1395	$1,900	$1.36	5d	1	0.49mi
40 Carpenter Ave Apt 2 Newburgh, NY	2.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	5d	1	0.64mi
117 Lander St Unit 2 Newburgh, NY	2.0	1.5	1670	$2,575	$1.54	5d	1	0.74mi
457 1st St Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.0	1680	$2,950	$1.76	139d	1	1.05mi
4 Riverview Ave Unit 1 New Windsor, NY	2.0	2.5	1992	$1,850	$0.93	109d	1	1.17mi
317 Grand St Unit 1-1 Newburgh, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,200	$1.57	109d	1	1.18mi
171 West St Newburgh, NY	3.0	1.5	1299	$2,800	$2.16	119d	1	1.34mi
81 Nicoll St Newburgh, NY	3.0	2.5	2210	$4,300	$1.95	5d	1	1.38mi
492 Liberty St Newburgh, NY	4.0	1.5	1351	$3,200	$2.37	5d	1	1.42mi
1000 Copper Ct New Windsor, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1344	$2,412	$1.79	3d	2	1.47mi
27 Lexington Ln New Windsor, NY	3.0	1.5	1280	$2,750	$2.15	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $159,900 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $159,900 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $159,900 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 192 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 191 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 190 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $159,900 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $159,900 Active 188 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $159,900 Active 187 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $159,900 Active 186 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 183 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $159,900 Active 182 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 181 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 178 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 177 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $159,900 Active 176 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $159,900 Active 175 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $159,900 Active 174 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $159,900 Active 173 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $159,900 Active 172 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $159,900 Active 171 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $159,900 Active 170 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $159,900 Active 169 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $159,900 Active 168 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $159,900 Active 167 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $159,900 Active 166 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $159,900 Active 165 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $159,900 Active 164 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $159,900 Active 163 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $159,900 Active 162 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $159,900 Active 161 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $159,900 Active 160 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $159,900 Active 159 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $159,900 Active 158 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $159,900 Active 157 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $159,900 Active 156 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $159,900 Active 155 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 154 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $159,900 Active 153 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 152 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $159,900 Active 151 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 150 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 147 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 146 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $159,900 Active 145 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $159,900 Active 143 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $159,900 Active 141 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,563
• − Management: −$2,563
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $10,105
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,425
• After-tax cash flow: $9,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $94,400–$169,920 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding and roof replacement, to become move-in ready. Landscaping and interior updates would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major Roof — Appears old and possibly leaking

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior repairs — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior repairs and updates — Enhances living space and rental potential ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #17021

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newburgh, NY
• County: Orange County · 379,830 people
• City population: 55,152
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,152
• Household income: $85,697
• Rent vs Own: 44.2% rent · 55.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 36% Black 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.93%
• Current HPI: 304.1046
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.63%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $159,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $169,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid