8502 Shirley Ln · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40258

$149,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,050 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1955 0.34 ac lot Est $260k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for a little sweat equity in this three bedroom, two full bath home. The home has a lot of extra spaces including a first floor office, nicely finished basement with a large entertaining area, extra room that could be used as a fourth bedroom, full bath and even a kitchenette. The current owner has made a lot of improvements to the home in the past few years including updated bathrooms, new furnace and AC and water heater, new kitchen counter tops, and nice appliances. The backyard is extra large. The property has most recently been used as a rental. It is priced $10K below the last appraised value.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1955

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story
• Construction: Built in 1955; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation; Approximately 2,050 total living area with finished space above and below grade
• Exterior features: Level lot; Chain-link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor; All bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; At least one full bathroom located in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Basement includes additional rooms and closets; Total of 11 rooms and 7 closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in the basement; No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 122 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.26%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,350
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5212 W Pages Ln	0.07mi	3/1.0	2,100 (+2%)	5mo	$235,000	$112	84
8295 Blake Ln	0.11mi	3/1.0	2,044 (-0%)	9mo	$243,000	$119	83
5604 W Pages Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,088 (+2%)	4mo	$285,000	$136	70
5513 Tamarack Ln	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (+0%)	6mo	$218,000	$106	69
5605 Tamarack Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	2,073 (+1%)	7mo	$260,000	$125	69
7905 Bluebonnet Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,065 (+1%)	3mo	$190,000	$92	65
8902 Hagner Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,935 (-6%)	2mo	$245,000	$127	60
8024 N Blake Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,850 (-10%)	8mo	$229,900	$124	58
4510 Freda Way	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,864 (-9%)	8mo	$300,000	$161	52
5506 Morning Glory Ln	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,765 (-14%)	2mo	$280,000	$159	50
7905 Daffodil Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (-13%)	4mo	$250,000	$140	37
9102 Pinnacle Place Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,310 (+13%)	8mo	$395,000	$171	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $635
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $20,618
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40258

• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,887 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,133/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $149,999

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $549	-5% $506	+0% $464	+5% $422	+10% $379
Rent	-10% $315	-5% $389	+0% $464	+5% $538	+10% $613
Rate	-1.0pp $539	-0.5pp $502	base $464	+0.5pp $425	+1.0pp $386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4904 Paramount Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	2205	$2,145	$0.97	24d	1	0.50mi
7820 Hepatica Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	1763	$2,070	$1.17	15d	1	0.69mi
9302 Ponder Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1678	$1,350	$0.80	15d	1	0.99mi
9207 Fenmore Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	16d	1	1.02mi
6100 Goalby Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	1582	$1,850	$1.17	16d	1	1.10mi
9708 El Prado St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,755	$1.25	16d	1	1.21mi
10200 Renaissance Valley Way Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$1,904	$1.73	2d	29	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $149,999 Active
3. 2018-08-10
   soldstatus $129,000
4. 2018-07-27
   soldstatus $129,000 Closed 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Great opportunity for a little sweat equity in this three bedroom, two full bath home. The home has a lot of extra spaces including a first floor office, nicely finished basement with a large entertaining area, extra room that could be used as a fourth bedroom, full bath and even a kitchenette. The current owner has made a lot of improvements to the home in the past few years including updated bathrooms, new furnace and AC and water heater, new kitchen counter tops, and nice appliances. The backyard is extra large. The property has most recently been used as a rental. It is priced $10K below the last appraised value.

5. 2018-06-11
   status Pending 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Great opportunity for a little sweat equity in this three bedroom, two full bath home. The home has a lot of extra spaces including a first floor office, nicely finished basement with a large entertaining area, extra room that could be used as a fourth bedroom, full bath and even a kitchenette. The current owner has made a lot of improvements to the home in the past few years including updated bathrooms, new furnace and AC and water heater, new kitchen counter tops, and nice appliances. The backyard is extra large. The property has most recently been used as a rental. It is priced $10K below the last appraised value.

6. 2018-05-28
   historical Active Under Contract 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Great opportunity for a little sweat equity in this three bedroom, two full bath home. The home has a lot of extra spaces including a first floor office, nicely finished basement with a large entertaining area, extra room that could be used as a fourth bedroom, full bath and even a kitchenette. The current owner has made a lot of improvements to the home in the past few years including updated bathrooms, new furnace and AC and water heater, new kitchen counter tops, and nice appliances. The backyard is extra large. The property has most recently been used as a rental. It is priced $10K below the last appraised value.

7. 2018-05-28
   price $130,000 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Great opportunity for a little sweat equity in this three bedroom, two full bath home. The home has a lot of extra spaces including a first floor office, nicely finished basement with a large entertaining area, extra room that could be used as a fourth bedroom, full bath and even a kitchenette. The current owner has made a lot of improvements to the home in the past few years including updated bathrooms, new furnace and AC and water heater, new kitchen counter tops, and nice appliances. The backyard is extra large. The property has most recently been used as a rental. It is priced $10K below the last appraised value.

8. 2018-04-05
   price $125,000 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Great opportunity for a little sweat equity in this three bedroom, two full bath home. The home has a lot of extra spaces including a first floor office, nicely finished basement with a large entertaining area, extra room that could be used as a fourth bedroom, full bath and even a kitchenette. The current owner has made a lot of improvements to the home in the past few years including updated bathrooms, new furnace and AC and water heater, new kitchen counter tops, and nice appliances. The backyard is extra large. The property has most recently been used as a rental. It is priced $10K below the last appraised value.

9. 2018-04-04
   listed $130,000 Active 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Great opportunity for a little sweat equity in this three bedroom, two full bath home. The home has a lot of extra spaces including a first floor office, nicely finished basement with a large entertaining area, extra room that could be used as a fourth bedroom, full bath and even a kitchenette. The current owner has made a lot of improvements to the home in the past few years including updated bathrooms, new furnace and AC and water heater, new kitchen counter tops, and nice appliances. The backyard is extra large. The property has most recently been used as a rental. It is priced $10K below the last appraised value.

10. 2006-11-02
    soldstatus $121,000
11. 2006-10-31
    soldstatus $121,000 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Don't miss this opportunity!!! Owners loss can be your gain!!! This home is priced to sell and this is a flat bargain. This home features 1250 sqft and 4 possible 5 huge bedrooms and the floor plan is very functional. This home has a very nice finished basement with a roughed in kitchen and bar and a huge big screen that stays! Come and steal this house! Great price and zero down is possible. Seller is offering an ASW Warranty. Owner is a licensed Real Estate agent in state of KY.

12. 2006-09-06
    listed $121,000 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Don't miss this opportunity!!! Owners loss can be your gain!!! This home is priced to sell and this is a flat bargain. This home features 1250 sqft and 4 possible 5 huge bedrooms and the floor plan is very functional. This home has a very nice finished basement with a roughed in kitchen and bar and a huge big screen that stays! Come and steal this house! Great price and zero down is possible. Seller is offering an ASW Warranty. Owner is a licensed Real Estate agent in state of KY.

13. 2006-09-06
    soldstatus $112,600

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    Don't miss this opportunity!!! Owners loss can be your gain!!! This home is priced to sell and this is a flat bargain. This home features 1250 sqft and 4 possible 5 huge bedrooms and the floor plan is very functional. This home has a very nice finished basement with a roughed in kitchen and bar and a huge big screen that stays! Come and steal this house! Great price and zero down is possible. Seller is offering an ASW Warranty. Owner is a licensed Real Estate agent in state of KY.

14. 2003-03-24
    soldstatus $98,500
15. 2003-03-02
    listed $95,900
16. 1998-05-28
    soldstatus $76,000
17. 1998-04-11
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,133 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,133 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,133
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,812
• − Management: −$1,812
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,373
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$810
• After-tax cash flow: $4,758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,841
• Household income: $68,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 839.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 22% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -296.36%
• Current HPI: 244.6667
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.50%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+87.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $149,999 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-27 Sold (MLS) $129,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-06-11 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-05-28 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-05-28 Price Changed $130,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-04-05 Price Changed $125,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-04-04 Listed $130,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2006-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $121,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-31 Sold (MLS) $121,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2006-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $112,600 Public Records
• 2006-09-06 Listed $121,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2003-03-24 Sold (MLS) $98,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2003-03-02 Listed $95,900 Metro Search MLS
• 1998-05-28 Sold (MLS) $76,000 Metro Search MLS
• 1998-04-11 Listed $79,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,133 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.