227 Donaldson Way · American Canyon, CA 94503

$390,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,523 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1952 7,275 sqft lot $256/sqft · 40% below area Est $652k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable**Bring your tool belt and imagination to this single level home in American Canyon in a mature neighborhood. 3 bedroom 1 bath concrete block house is durable and has a good size lot.

Key facts

• 7,275 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($778/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $348k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $348k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in American Canyon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#133 in CA, #4,684 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Napa Valley Unified (urban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #599 of 1,400 in CA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 427 units permitted in Napa County in 2024 (189 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Napa County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($384k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $348,024 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $651,982
• List price: $390,000
• Delta: -40.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Donaldson Way	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-5%)	4mo	$495,000	$342	79
15 Alta Loma Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-2%)	4mo	$400,000	$267	71
103 Norwick Ct	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,625 (+7%)	3mo	$701,000	$431	69
151 Heartford Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,379 (-10%)	2mo	$730,000	$529	68
144 James Rd	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,661 (+9%)	12mo	$765,000	$461	65
705 Danrose Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+1%)	2mo	$575,000	$372	54
259 Los Altos Pl	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+14%)	10mo	$567,500	$325	52
532 Donaldson Way	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-8%)	14mo	$440,000	$313	52
248 W Carolyn Dr	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,541 (+1%)	10mo	$625,000	$406	49
208 Frontier St	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,706 (+12%)	1mo	$729,000	$427	47
2 Corvina Ct	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,351 (-11%)	10mo	$565,000	$418	47
240 W Carolyn Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,661 (+9%)	4mo	$585,000	$352	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-59,021
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-45,889
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94503

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,480 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$477 /mo · $5,722/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$731
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,398

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Toscana Dr American Canyon, CA	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1466	$3,828	$2.61	13d	5	0.47mi
213 Jana Way American Canyon, CA	4.0	2.0	1464	$3,449	$2.36	23d	1	0.56mi
15 Lena Dr American Canyon, CA	4.0	2.0	1290	$3,150	$2.44	13d	1	1.00mi
800 Reliant Way American Canyon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,460	$2.58	13d	4	1.07mi
137 Imelda St Unit 3BR/1BA Vallejo, CA	3.0	1.0	1080	$3,250	$3.01	13d	1	1.13mi
300 Swan Way Vallejo, CA	3.0	2.0	1134	$2,775	$2.45	21d	1	1.19mi
123 David Ct Vallejo, CA	3.0	2.0	1323	$3,149	$2.38	13d	1	1.22mi
2525 Flosden Rd #16 American Canyon, CA	3.0	2.0	1244	$2,795	$2.25	13d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Affordable**Bring your tool belt and imagination to this single level home in American Canyon in a mature neighborhood. 3 bedroom 1 bath concrete block house is durable and has a good size lot.

2. 2026-04-21
   listed $390,000 Active 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Affordable**Bring your tool belt and imagination to this single level home in American Canyon in a mature neighborhood. 3 bedroom 1 bath concrete block house is durable and has a good size lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,722 · $477/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,722 · $477/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$5,722
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,341
• − Management: −$3,341
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$5,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,388
• After-tax cash flow: $2,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Napa Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,007
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #7827
• State rank: #599 of 1400 in CA

Livability — American Canyon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #4684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: American Canyon, CA
• County: Napa County · 120,669 people
• City population: 21,841
• Metro: Napa, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,841
• Household income: $121,088
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 486.0

Population outlook (Napa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 153,987 people
• By 2030: 159,490 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 168,796 · +9.6%
• By 2050: 176,213 · +14.4%
• By 2075: 190,113 · +23.5%
• By 2100: 190,528 · +23.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 33% Hispanic / Latino 31% White 21% Two or more races 15% Black 6% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 15% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Napa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.9) · D 65.9% · R 31.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.9 2020: D+40.4 2016: D+35.2 2012: D+25.7 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.47%
• Current HPI: 366.9139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Napa, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — BAREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $390,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,722 · +677.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.