20366 Kensfield Trl #1703 · Lakeville, MN 55044

$315,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,777 sqft · Townhouse public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2004 $290/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A place for everything and everything in its place. Step inside and you will quickly see that this home has always been loved. Enjoy the many recent updates like jamming out or just relaxing with the whole house audio system and brighten up your day with the beautiful recessed lighting. Youll be amazed with the 3 bedrooms on one level, if that's not enough there is also a spacious loft. The master bath features plenty of counter space, a walk in closet, stand alone shower, and a jetted tub.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Custom cabinetry
• End unit townhome

Tags

• END UNIT TOWNHOME
• OPEN GREEN SPACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• STANDOUT FIREPLACE
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by First Service Residential; Monthly HOA fee of $290; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached insulated 2-car garage with garage door opener (21x28)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential attached property; Two levels; Primary bedroom suite; Includes a loft
• Construction: Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Foundation area 1,084
• Exterior features: Patio; Stone and vinyl exterior; Light tree coverage; Curbs and paved streets; Private road with association maintenance; Street lights

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Disposal; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary suite); Upper-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath; Upper-level full bath; Primary suite with private full bath and jetted tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Natural woodwork; Vaulted ceilings; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Walk-in closet; In-ground sprinkler; Washer/dryer hookup; Water softener (owned); Jetted tub; Separate tub and shower; Private primary bath; Full primary bath; Main floor half bath; Gas fireplace in living room
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Lakeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#25 in MN, #711 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lakeville Public School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #21 of 301 in MN (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lakeview Elementary (math 64% / reading 73%, grade B+, #91 of 857 statewide, top 11%, 521 students, 21% FRL); Mcguire Middle (math 52% / reading 59%, grade B-, #43 of 258 statewide, top 17%, 865 students, 20% FRL); Lakeville South High (math 51% / reading 67%, grade C+, #53 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 1,906 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 719 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $278,683 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.52%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-56,963
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-53,830
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55044

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 719
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,787 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,882/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$290
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,928

Max offer price $295,265

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $67	-5% $-23	+0% $-112	+5% $-201	+10% $-290
Rent	-10% $-332	-5% $-222	+0% $-112	+5% $-2	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $-32	base $-112	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20457 Keystone Ave Lakeville, MN	2.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	2247	$3,412	$1.52	0d	49	0.70mi
11656 207th St W Lakeville, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	918	$2,443	$2.66	0d	33	0.74mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $290 · $3,480/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   historical Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission
3. 2026-04-20
   listed $315,000 Active
4. 2017-12-04
   soldstatus $214,976
5. 2017-10-31
   soldstatus $214,975 Sold 495-char remark

   Show marketing remark (495 chars)

   A place for everything and everything in its place. Step inside and you will quickly see that this home has always been loved. Enjoy the many recent updates like jamming out or just relaxing with the whole house audio system and brighten up your day with the beautiful recessed lighting. Youll be amazed with the 3 bedrooms on one level, if that's not enough there is also a spacious loft. The master bath features plenty of counter space, a walk in closet, stand alone shower, and a jetted tub.

6. 2017-10-16
   status Pending 495-char remark

   Show marketing remark (495 chars)

   A place for everything and everything in its place. Step inside and you will quickly see that this home has always been loved. Enjoy the many recent updates like jamming out or just relaxing with the whole house audio system and brighten up your day with the beautiful recessed lighting. Youll be amazed with the 3 bedrooms on one level, if that's not enough there is also a spacious loft. The master bath features plenty of counter space, a walk in closet, stand alone shower, and a jetted tub.

7. 2017-09-13
   historical Contingent - Inspection 495-char remark

   Show marketing remark (495 chars)

   A place for everything and everything in its place. Step inside and you will quickly see that this home has always been loved. Enjoy the many recent updates like jamming out or just relaxing with the whole house audio system and brighten up your day with the beautiful recessed lighting. Youll be amazed with the 3 bedrooms on one level, if that's not enough there is also a spacious loft. The master bath features plenty of counter space, a walk in closet, stand alone shower, and a jetted tub.

8. 2017-09-08
   listed $214,975 Active 495-char remark

   Show marketing remark (495 chars)

   A place for everything and everything in its place. Step inside and you will quickly see that this home has always been loved. Enjoy the many recent updates like jamming out or just relaxing with the whole house audio system and brighten up your day with the beautiful recessed lighting. Youll be amazed with the 3 bedrooms on one level, if that's not enough there is also a spacious loft. The master bath features plenty of counter space, a walk in closet, stand alone shower, and a jetted tub.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,882 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,205 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$323/yr (+$27/mo · 11.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,882
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,675
• − Management: −$2,675
• − HOA: −$3,480
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,654
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,597
• After-tax cash flow: $256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeville Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2717780
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $96,899
• Composite: 56.36/100
• National rank: #1164
• State rank: #21 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lakeville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #711

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeville, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 64,762
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 64,762
• Household income: $141,551
• Rent vs Own: 12.0% rent · 88.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 956.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.50%
• Current HPI: 216.0601
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+46.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $315,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $214,976 Public Records
• 2017-10-31 Sold (MLS) $214,975 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-16 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-13 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-08 Listed $214,975 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,882 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.