Fentress Plan · Conroe, TX 77378

$250,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,218 sqft · SingleFamily · 681 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A two-story foyer greets you as you enter the dual-level Fentress, and flows seamlessly through to the kitchen with an island, café, and expansive gathering room. Retreat to the private owner's suite on the first floor featuring an oversized walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms plus loft space provide plenty of space to relax and unwind and complete this home.

Key facts

• Two-story foyer
• Loft space
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• TWO-STORY FOYER
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• LOFT SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $250,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $251,641.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $251k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($48/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turner El (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 424 students, 66% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 721 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 681 days — a 12% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $220,641 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 681 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,641
• List price: $250,990
• Delta: -0.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10711 Sora Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,218 (0%)	1mo	$280,200	$126	97
10727 Sora Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,025 (-9%)	4mo	$260,700	$129	76
247 Pine Cavern Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,312 (+4%)	6mo	$259,900	$112	68
950 Oak Glen Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,378 (+7%)	1mo	$263,000	$111	65
301 Maple Bark Trl	0.51mi	4/3.0	2,081 (-6%)	4mo	$249,900	$120	61
427 Starfly Dr	0.14mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,531 (+14%)	8mo	$287,050	$113	56
971 Oak Lynn Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,333 (+5%)	7mo	$225,000	$96	55
157 Wasatch Peaks Way	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,246 (+1%)	9mo	$355,990	$158	54
996 Oak Glen Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,499 (+13%)	7mo	$235,000	$94	51
349 Maple Bark Trl	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,949 (-12%)	9mo	$260,000	$133	50
993 Oak Glen Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,921 (-13%)	1mo	$239,000	$124	48
261 Mountain Knolls Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,990 (-10%)	8mo	$314,990	$158	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,883
• Equity at exit: $37,521

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-55,940
• Equity at exit: $21,757

Cash invested: $70,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,206 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,320
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$315 /mo · $3,775/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,201

Max offer price $251,641

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $178	-5% $91	+0% $4	+5% $-83	+10% $-170
Rent	-10% $-170	-5% $-83	+0% $4	+5% $91	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $68	base $4	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,910
• Closing costs: $7,549
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
974 Oak Falls Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.5	2499	$2,210	$0.88	45d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,990 Active 681 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,990 Active 678 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,990 Active 677 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,990 Active 676 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,990 Active 675 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,990 Active 673 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,990 Active 669 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,990 Active 668 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,990 Active 667 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,990 Active 664 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $250,990 Active 663 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $247,990 Active 662 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $247,990 Active 661 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $247,990 Active 660 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    price $247,990 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    A two-story foyer greets you as you enter the dual-level Fentress, and flows seamlessly through to the kitchen with an island, café, and expansive gathering room. Retreat to the private owner's suite on the first floor featuring an oversized walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms plus loft space provide plenty of space to relax and unwind and complete this home.

16. 2026-03-03
    price $244,990 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    A two-story foyer greets you as you enter the dual-level Fentress, and flows seamlessly through to the kitchen with an island, café, and expansive gathering room. Retreat to the private owner's suite on the first floor featuring an oversized walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms plus loft space provide plenty of space to relax and unwind and complete this home.

17. 2026-01-29
    price $241,990 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    A two-story foyer greets you as you enter the dual-level Fentress, and flows seamlessly through to the kitchen with an island, café, and expansive gathering room. Retreat to the private owner's suite on the first floor featuring an oversized walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms plus loft space provide plenty of space to relax and unwind and complete this home.

18. 2025-04-03
    price $271,990 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    A two-story foyer greets you as you enter the dual-level Fentress, and flows seamlessly through to the kitchen with an island, café, and expansive gathering room. Retreat to the private owner's suite on the first floor featuring an oversized walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms plus loft space provide plenty of space to relax and unwind and complete this home.

19. 2025-03-13
    status Active 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    A two-story foyer greets you as you enter the dual-level Fentress, and flows seamlessly through to the kitchen with an island, café, and expansive gathering room. Retreat to the private owner's suite on the first floor featuring an oversized walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms plus loft space provide plenty of space to relax and unwind and complete this home.

20. 2025-03-03
    historical 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    A two-story foyer greets you as you enter the dual-level Fentress, and flows seamlessly through to the kitchen with an island, café, and expansive gathering room. Retreat to the private owner's suite on the first floor featuring an oversized walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms plus loft space provide plenty of space to relax and unwind and complete this home.

21. 2024-09-18
    price $270,990 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    A two-story foyer greets you as you enter the dual-level Fentress, and flows seamlessly through to the kitchen with an island, café, and expansive gathering room. Retreat to the private owner's suite on the first floor featuring an oversized walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms plus loft space provide plenty of space to relax and unwind and complete this home.

22. 2024-08-01
    listed $269,990 Active 373-char remark

    Show marketing remark (373 chars)

    A two-story foyer greets you as you enter the dual-level Fentress, and flows seamlessly through to the kitchen with an island, café, and expansive gathering room. Retreat to the private owner's suite on the first floor featuring an oversized walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms plus loft space provide plenty of space to relax and unwind and complete this home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,096
• − Property taxes: −$3,775
• − Insurance: −$1,258
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,118
• − Management: −$2,118
• − Depreciation: −$7,320
• Taxable loss: −$4,209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,010
• After-tax cash flow: $1,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $244,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $241,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-13 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-03-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $270,990 Zillow
• 2024-08-01 Listed $269,990 Zillow