245 Northwood Dr · Folsom, CA 95630

$205,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $191k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newer, Gorgeous Home in Folsom's only 5 Star Senior Park, on 75 acres, Lake w/ fountain, Pool, Spa, Sauna, Huge Game Room, Lots of things to do! Large Living Room w/ Vaulted ceilings, as well as Huge Kitchen w/ vaulted ceilings, Separate Dining room, Indoor laundry, spacious Bedrooms and baths. Space rent $965 mo. Water included. Trash and Sewer about $126mo. So many activities. Plus community garden, RV parking $40mo. , 2 miles of trails, plenty of guest parking. You will love all the activities provided by our Social Club. Rarely does a newer home like this come on the market. Hurry on this one!

Key facts

• Spa
• Sauna
• Community garden

Tags

• LAKE W FOUNTAIN
• POOL
• SPA
• SAUNA
• HUGE GAME ROOM
• COMMUNITY GARDEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 245 Northwood Dr, Folsom, CA 95630; Directions: Folsom Auburn to Pinebrook Entrance, turn right on Overbrook, left on Northwood to home on right side, across from guest parking.
• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount exists but excluded)
• HOA & community: Not part of an association; Senior community; Community has 336 units

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer; Electric: Other
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double wide; Built in 2002
• Construction: Composition roof; Karsten make (mobile home); Skirt: Other
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Porch awning; Storage shed(s); Close to clubhouse; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Breakfast area; Pantry cabinet; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Dual-pane full windows; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer and dryer included; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $206k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $604 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $206k).
• Recommended offer: $200k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.5% in Folsom — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#190 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Folsom-Cordova Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #365 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,771 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.57%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,762
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
276 Meadowrock Way	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+1%)	1mo	$180,000	$134	96
155 Leafwood Way	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	1mo	$185,000	$148	76
230 Northlake Dr	0.10mi	2/1.5	1,440 (+8%)	7mo	$299,500	$208	74
95 Shadowbrook Ct	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	4mo	$170,000	$118	74
320 Stonebrook Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	5mo	$165,950	$115	73
330 Stonebrook Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	7mo	$206,450	$143	72
294 Danielle Way	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+1%)	8mo	$200,000	$149	65
440 Nugget	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,444 (+8%)	7mo	$219,000	$152	65
431 Nugget Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	8mo	$175,000	$122	65
347 Danielle Way	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	2mo	$138,000	$111	62
342 Danielle Way	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	5mo	$155,000	$108	56
246 Danielle Way	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,162 (-13%)	1mo	$190,000	$164	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,872
• Equity at exit: $30,708

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $38,271
• Equity at exit: $17,807

Cash invested: $57,666 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95630

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,566 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,080
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$257 /mo · $3,089/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $604

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,802

Max offer price $205,950

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,488
• Closing costs: $6,178
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
340 Caples Dr Folsom, CA	3.0	2.5	1423	$2,795	$1.96	7d	1	1.15mi
288 Marsalla Dr Folsom, CA	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,495	$2.21	43d	1	1.23mi
1600 Canyon Terrace Ln Folsom, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,348	$2.46	1d	18	1.47mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $205,950 Pending 52 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,536
• − Property taxes: −$3,089
• − Insurance: −$1,030
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,464
• − Management: −$2,464
• − Depreciation: −$5,991
• Taxable income: $4,220
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,013
• After-tax cash flow: $6,235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Folsom-Cordova Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613890
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -38.00%
• Median HH income: $75,408
• Composite: 24.49/100
• National rank: #7656
• State rank: #365 of 517 in CA

Livability — Folsom

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #190
• US rank: #6125

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Folsom, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 79,484
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,484
• Household income: $139,642
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1651.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -240.39%
• Current HPI: 286.0579
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $297 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.