2511 Race Ave · Independence, MO 64052

$30,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1956 7,816 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all fans of fixer-uppers! This home is in need of major TLC, so bring your vision and elbow grease and take advantage of this steal of a deal. With an estimated ARV of $190,000, you’re looking at a TON of potential for instant equity! Create the perfect spot just for you or flip it into a cash-flowing rental, close to parks, walking trails, main road/highway access and popular shopping.

Key facts

• 7,816 sq ft lot
• Built 1956
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade living area approximately 1,414 (estimated)
• HOA & community: No association fees; No community maintenance provided

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family ranch home; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Built approximately 51–75 years ago; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 7,816 square feet; Flood plain status: unknown

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $750 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 36.3% vs local median 5.0% in Independence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in MO, #1,296 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Independence 30 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #252 of 324 in MO (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 127 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $30,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 107.13%
• DSCR: 5.77
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,890
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2700 Englewood Ter	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,335 (-6%)	2mo	$205,000	$154	77
2917 Englewood Ter	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,463 (+4%)	4mo	$196,000	$134	66
2521 & 2525 Race Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,592 (+13%)	8mo	$100,000	$63	65
10816 E 27th St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-8%)	2mo	$148,000	$114	64
2320 S Vermont Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-11%)	1mo	$220,000	$175	62
2916 S Mason Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,517 (+7%)	3mo	$205,000	$135	53
1403 W Bryson St	0.43mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,284 (-9%)	9mo	$225,000	$175	50
2005 S Northern Blvd	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,300 (-8%)	2mo	$136,900	$105	48
11105 Sheley Rd	0.61mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,508 (+7%)	8mo	$179,900	$119	47
2020 S Vermont Ave	0.54mi	2/2.5	1,596 (+13%)	7mo	$199,000	$125	46
2916 S Northern Blvd	0.64mi	2/1.0	1,216 (-14%)	2mo	$190,000	$156	41
1218 W 25th Ter S	0.65mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,600 (+13%)	7mo	$219,900	$137	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.51×
• Total profit: $46,259
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.84×
• Total profit: $116,241
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64052

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,313 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,406/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $750

Break-even live

Break-even rent $363

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2256 S Sterling Ave Independence, MO	3.0	1.5	1284	$1,399	$1.09	16d	1	0.45mi
10604 E 26th St S Independence, MO	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,610	$1.51	7d	1	0.48mi
2110 S Sterling Ave Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1722	$1,849	$1.07	16d	1	0.55mi
10817 E 19th Ter S Independence, MO	3.0	1.0	1428	$1,801	$1.26	16d	1	0.71mi
1810 S Vermont Ave Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$948	$1.00	43d	1	0.78mi
11709 E Winner Rd Independence, MO	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,195	$0.92	16d	1	0.85mi
10714 E 19th St S Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	1010	$895	$0.89	3d	1	0.86mi
10323 E 20th St S Independence, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,400	$1.50	43d	1	0.88mi
3213 S Ash Ave Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	879	$1,195	$1.36	7d	1	1.04mi
724 S Grand Ave Independence, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,149	$1.15	43d	1	1.05mi
523 S Crysler Ave Unit A Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$650	$0.72	23d	1	1.06mi
11616 E 16th St S Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$1,125	$1.11	43d	1	1.09mi
9613 E 25th Ter S Independence, MO	3.0	1.0	1214	$1,545	$1.27	23d	1	1.12mi
1502 S Pleasant St Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,399	$1.17	43d	1	1.16mi
1425 S Northern Blvd Independence, MO	3.0	1.5	1275	$1,200	$0.94	7d	1	1.21mi
10119 E Winner Rd Unit 2 Independence, MO	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,045	$1.04	21d	1	1.26mi
11418 E 13th St S Independence, MO	2.0	1.0	1760	$1,100	$0.62	43d	1	1.27mi
2702 S Glenwood Ave Independence, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,555	$1.47	23d	1	1.35mi
321 W South Ave Unit 11 Independence, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	21d	1	1.38mi
321 W South Ave Unit 9 Independence, MO	2.0	1.5	980	$1,295	$1.32	43d	1	1.38mi
321 W South Ave Unit 8 Independence, MO	2.0	1.5	980	$1,895	$1.93	1d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $30,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   remarks 397-char remark
4. 2026-06-13
   listed $30,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$1,406
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,260
• − Management: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $9,122
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,189
• After-tax cash flow: $6,810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independence 30
• NCES district ID: 2915480
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,843
• Composite: 27.04/100
• National rank: #7054
• State rank: #252 of 324 in MO

Livability — Independence

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1296

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Independence, MO
• County: Jackson County · 687,798 people
• City population: 117,675
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 22,138
• Household income: $59,007
• Rent vs Own: 44.0% rent · 56.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 965.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 719,589 people
• By 2030: 731,456 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 746,689 · +3.8%
• By 2050: 749,289 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 736,227 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 668,210 · -7.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 12% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: D (+19.3) · D 58.9% · R 39.5% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.1pp toward R · 2008: 25.4pp · 2024: 19.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.3 2020: D+22.0 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+25.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.06%
• Current HPI: 302.1124
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.43%
• Metro: Kansas City, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $30,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,406 · -58.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.