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8 San Felipe 🏗️ New Construction
D- Composite 38.21
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +11.4/30.0
  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Condition / age +3.8/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.7/10.0
  • DSCR +3.5/10.0
  • Livability +3.2/5.0
  • Schools +2.7/10.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$246,990

8 San Felipe · Lakewood Park, FL 34951
2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,191 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market
55+ age-restricted Built 2027 Good condition 2-car garage

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Sundance is a bright and thoughtfully designed home that offers the ideal blend of comfort, convenience, and easy Florida living. With 1,191 square feet of interior space, this two-bedroom layout is perfect for homebuyers who want a welcoming low-maintenance home in a lively 55+ community. From the covered entry, you step into a light-filled foyer that opens directly into the spacious great room. This central gathering area offers plenty of room for relaxing, watching movies, or hosting friends. The great room flows naturally into the kitchen, which features a smart L-shaped layout with an island, a pantry, and clear sightlines to the main living area. Just off the great room, a sliding door leads to the covered outdoor living area, giving you a peaceful place to enjoy morning coffee, fresh air, or quiet evenings outdoors. The owners suite includes a spacious walk-in closet and a private bathroom with double sinks. Bedroom 2, positioned near the front of the home, makes an excellent guest room, hobby space, or home office. The second bathroom can be accessed directly from the guest bedroom or from the hallway. The Sundance also includes a dedicated laundry room, well-placed storage, a one-car garage, and a separate golf cart garage that makes it easy to get around the Spanish Lakes community for golf, social events, and daily fun.

Key facts

  • Well-placed storage
  • Walk-in closet
  • Private bathroom

Tags

SMART L-SHAPED LAYOUTCOVERED OUTDOOR LIVING AREAWALK-IN CLOSETPRIVATE BATHROOMDEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOMWELL-PLACED STORAGE

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction. The $246,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,335.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $247k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-317 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (12.0% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $217k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 63/100 on livability (#719 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
  • St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Weatherbee Elementary School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 672 students, 90% FRL); Dan Mccarty Middle School (math 23% / reading 23%, grade F, #542 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 747 students, 88% FRL); Fort Pierce Westwood Academy The W.E.S.T. Prep Magnet (math 16% / reading 36%, grade F, #494 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,010 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 59% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Lucie average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: 427 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $217,376 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.74%
Cap rate
5.00%
Cash-on-cash
-4.61%
DSCR
0.79
GRM
11.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$294,335
List price
$246,990
Delta
-16.09%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
6602 Fort Walton Ave 0.32mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,196 (+0%) 3mo $282,500 $236 77
6903 Shannon Dr 0.35mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,178 (-1%) 5mo $269,900 $229 72
5809 Killarney Ave 0.27mi 2/2.0 1,125 (-6%) 7mo $240,000 $213 72
16 Rio De Palmas 0.13mi 2/2.0 1,351 (+13%) 6mo $120,000 $89 66
3 Quito 0.18mi 1/1.5 (-1) 1,305 (+10%) 5mo $249,000 $191 64
6903 Santa Rosa Pkwy 0.50mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,263 (+6%) 2mo $319,888 $253 60
7003 Fort Walton Ave 0.47mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,092 (-8%) 2mo $285,000 $261 58
55 La Villa Way 0.50mi 1/1.5 (-1) 1,310 (+10%) 1mo $229,000 $175 52
10 Felicidad Ct 0.71mi 2/2.0 1,319 (+11%) 6mo $150,000 $114 44
36 Ipanema Way 0.75mi 2/2.0 1,319 (+11%) 6mo $140,000 $106 42
6504 Student Way 0.75mi 2/2.0 1,032 (-13%) 3mo $185,000 $179 40
6801 Paso Robles Blvd 0.68mi 3/2.0 (+1) 1,364 (+14%) 4mo $310,000 $227 36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-24.1%
Equity multiple
0.18×
Total profit
$-67,840
Equity at exit
$43,886
10-year hold
IRR
-19.3%
Equity multiple
-0.03×
Total profit
$-84,923
Equity at exit
$25,449

Cash invested: $82,414 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
42 active · 35 under contract
Months of supply
10.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$261,490 ($208/sqft)
Median days on market
34 d
This list price
38% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+18.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34951

Home prices YoY
-23.6%
Active inventory
427
Price-to-rent
9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,174 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,544
Tax est. 1.5%
$368 /mo · $4,415/yr
Insurance
$123
HOA
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$456
Net cashflow
$-317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,575
Max offer price $248,492
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-113 -5% $-215 +0% $-317 +5% $-419 +10% $-520
Rent -10% $-489 -5% $-403 +0% $-317 +5% $-231 +10% $-145
Rate -1.0pp $-169 -0.5pp $-242 base $-317 +0.5pp $-393 +1.0pp $-471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$73,584
Closing costs
$8,830
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 23 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
6305 Spring Lake Ter Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 1416 $2,100 $1.48 6d 1 0.06mi
6020 Spring Lake Ter Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 1437 $2,100 $1.46 6d 1 0.20mi
6906 Ocala Ave Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 1175 $1,955 $1.66 109d 1 0.39mi
5642 Sunberry Cir Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 1377 $1,950 $1.42 119d 1 0.48mi
5605 Winter Garden Pkwy Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 1410 $2,700 $1.91 6d 1 0.53mi
7008 Salerno Rd Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 1400 $2,250 $1.61 6d 1 0.61mi
7403 Winter Garden Pkwy Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 1372 $2,200 $1.60 117d 1 0.65mi
5747 Deer Run Dr Unit 1l Fort Pierce, FL 2.0 2.0 960 $1,800 $1.88 6d 1 0.68mi
7410 Santa Rosa Pkwy Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 1401 $2,200 $1.57 6d 1 0.75mi
6707 Coquina Ave Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 1478 $2,400 $1.62 6d 1 0.77mi
7500 Pensacola Rd Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 1125 $2,150 $1.91 109d 1 0.78mi
7402 Lakeland Blvd Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 3.0 1434 $2,400 $1.67 6d 1 0.81mi
7503 Paso Robles Blvd Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 1260 $2,000 $1.59 119d 1 0.97mi
8001 Hibiscus Rd Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 988 $1,980 $2.00 6d 1 1.01mi
5344 Oakland Lake Cir Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 1460 $2,300 $1.58 6d 1 1.08mi
2450 8th Ave SW Vero Beach, FL 3.0 2.0 1388 $2,100 $1.51 116d 1 1.10mi
7105 North Blvd Fort Pierce, FL 2.0 2.0 1008 $1,975 $1.96 6d 1 1.10mi
6602 Palomar Pkwy Unit A Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 1.0 1200 $2,000 $1.67 119d 1 1.11mi
5234 Oakland Lake Cir Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 1460 $2,300 $1.58 109d 1 1.14mi
6514 Flora Way Fort Pierce, FL 3.0 2.0 1404 $2,135 $1.52 0d 1 1.16mi
2390 6th Way SW Vero Beach, FL 3.0 2.0 1362 $2,350 $1.73 4d 1 1.17mi
985 23rd Pl SW Vero Beach, FL 3.0 2.0 1176 $2,200 $1.87 116d 1 1.23mi
6034 Indrio Rd #5 Fort Pierce, FL 1.0 1.5 760 $1,600 $2.11 6d 1 1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Living area approximately 1,191 (building area total 1,793 per plans)
Financial info
Pets allowed with number limit
HOA & community
Located in a senior communityLand lease: $699 monthly (lease in effect through 2126)

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage2 covered parking spaces (total 1 listed parking? -- consolidated as 2 covered/garage spaces)
Security
Smoke detector(s)
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerWater and sewer available
Home design
Single-family residenceOne-storyNew constructionSouth-facing
Construction
CBS constructionMetal roofBuilt by Holiday Builders (Sundance model)
Exterior features
Covered patioPatio

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveElectric water heater
Bedrooms
2 main-level bedrooms
Flooring
Carpet
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms (main level)
Heating & cooling
Central electric heatingCentral electric cooling (central air)
Interior features
Walk-in closetsSplit bedroom layoutSmoke detectors
Laundry & utility
Laundry closet with washer hookupIndoor laundry

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-24
    days on market $246,990 Active 6 DOM
  2. 2026-09-23
    days on market $246,990 Active 5 DOM
  3. 2026-09-22
    days on market $246,990 Active 4 DOM
  4. 2026-09-21
    days on market $246,990 Active 3 DOM
  5. 2026-09-20
    days on market $246,990 Active 2 DOM
  6. 2026-09-18
    days on marketlisting id $246,990 Active 1 DOM
  7. 2026-09-17
    days on market $246,990 Active 104 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $246,990 Active 103 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $246,990 Active 102 DOM
  10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $246,990 Active 101 DOM
  11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $246,990 Active 100 DOM
  12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $246,990 Active 99 DOM
  13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $246,990 Active 98 DOM
  14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $246,990 Active 92 DOM
  15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $246,990 Active 91 DOM
  16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $246,990 Active 90 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $246,990 Active 87 DOM
  18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $246,990 Active 86 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $246,990 Active 85 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $246,990 Active 84 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $246,990 Active 83 DOM
  22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $246,990 Active 82 DOM
  23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $246,990 Active 81 DOM
  24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $246,990 Active 80 DOM
  25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $246,990 Active 79 DOM
  26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $246,990 Active 78 DOM
  27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $246,990 Active 77 DOM
  28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $246,990 Active 76 DOM
  29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $246,990 Active 75 DOM
  30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $246,990 Active 74 DOM
  31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $246,990 Active 73 DOM
  32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $246,990 Active 72 DOM
  33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $246,990 Active 71 DOM
  34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $246,990 Active 70 DOM
  35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $246,990 Active 69 DOM
  36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $246,990 Active 68 DOM
  37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $246,990 Active 67 DOM
  38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $246,990 Active 66 DOM
  39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $246,990 Active 65 DOM
  40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $246,990 Active 64 DOM
  41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $246,990 Active 63 DOM
  42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $246,990 Active 62 DOM
  43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $246,990 Active 61 DOM
  44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $246,990 Active 60 DOM
  45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $246,990 Active 59 DOM
  46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $246,990 Active 56 DOM
  47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $246,990 Active 55 DOM
  48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $246,990 Active 54 DOM
  49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $246,990 Active 52 DOM
  50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $246,990 Active 50 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$26,085
− Mortgage interest
−$16,487
− Property taxes
−$4,415
− Insurance
−$1,472
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,087
− Management
−$2,087
− Depreciation
−$8,562
Taxable loss
−$9,025
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,166
After-tax cash flow
$-1,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,955–$17,865 screening

The home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good roof and flooring, and the interior walls and paint appear to be in good condition. The home is located in a desirable community with a good neighborhood. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters.
  • Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the interior look more inviting and modern.
  • Both Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and value.
  • Both Bathroom fixtures — Updating the bathroom fixtures can improve the home's functionality and aesthetic appeal.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Weatherbee Elementary School F FL #1,797/2,144 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Dan Mccarty Middle School F FL #542/571 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Fort Pierce Westwood Academy The W.e.s.t. Prep Magnet F FL #494/667 Nat'l #12,251/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
St. Lucie
NCES district ID
1201770
Math proficiency
40% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
48% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$44,737
Composite
37.28/100
National rank
#4449
State rank
#51 of 73 in FL
C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Lakewood Park

Score
63/100
State rank
#719
US rank
#15407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Lakewood Park, FL
County
Saint Lucie County · 338,016 people
Metro
Port St. Lucie, FL
Population (ZIP)
17,148
Household income
$63,122
Rent vs Own
11.7% rent · 88.3% own
Severe rent burden
6% of renters

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
338,016 people
By 2030
355,687 · +5.2%
By 2040
385,521 · +14.1%
By 2050
406,106 · +20.1%
By 2075
441,054 · +30.5%
By 2100
436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity
White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
Common ancestry
Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born
10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
Languages at home
88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

2024 margin
Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
2008→2024 swing
-21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
All cycles
2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+0.0% since first listed
2 events — show timeline
  • 2026-09-18 Listed $246,990 Beaches MLS
  • 2026-06-05 Listed $246,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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