4770 Fox Hunt Ln Unit B510 · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,015 sqft · Condo public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1981 $521/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SADDLEBROOK’S BEST VALUE… DON’T BLINK OR IT’S GONE! Welcome to resort-style living in the highly sought Guard Gated Saddlebrook Golf & Tennis Resort! This fully furnished, spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo-hotel offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and investment potential. Move-in ready – furniture included Flexible use live full-time, enjoy seasonally, or rent it out (minimum 1-week rentals allowed! Turnkey investment opportunity Enjoy world-class amenities including two Arnold Palmer-designed golf courses and 45 tennis courts a true paradise for active living! Whether you’re looking for a personal getaway or an income-producing prope

Key facts

• Two golf courses
• Guard gated
• Fully furnished

Tags

• GUARD GATED
• FULLY FURNISHED
• TURNKEY INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• WORLD CLASS AMENITIES
• TWO GOLF COURSES
• FORTY FIVE TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association name listed; Pets not allowed
• Financial info: Total annual association fees stated ($6,260); Leasing/rental restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA dues required (approx. $521.67); Quarterly association fee listed ($1,565); Association requires approval; Association amenities include pool, fitness center, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball courts, basketball court, trails, golf, racquetball, laundry facilities, maintenance, security, cable TV, internet, and vehicle restrictions; Association fee covers guard (24-hour), cable TV, common area taxes, pool, electricity, escrow reserves, insurance, internet, maintenance (structure & grounds), management, sewer, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Valet parking
• Security: Gated community; 24-hour guard; Security services via association
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Phone available; High-speed internet / broadband available
• Home design: Residential condominium; One story; Faces west; First-floor unit
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Year built not provided
• Exterior features: Balcony; Exterior lighting; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Landscaped; Street brick; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 649 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.88%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,261
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,852
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,247 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $885/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$521
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,756

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $467	-5% $428	+0% $388	+5% $348	+10% $309
Rent	-10% $211	-5% $299	+0% $388	+5% $477	+10% $566
Rate	-1.0pp $459	-0.5pp $424	base $388	+0.5pp $352	+1.0pp $315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29300 Bay Hollow Dr #3250 Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0	1.0	819	$1,550	$1.89	25d	1	0.40mi
4744 Fox Hunt Dr Unit 1022 & 1024 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1420	$2,600	$1.83	25d	1	0.45mi
29129 Bay Hollow Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	886	$2,500	$2.82	0d	1	0.48mi
6274 Caroline Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1497	$2,380	$1.59	0d	6	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $521 · $6,252/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $140,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $155,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-04-11
    price $155,000
15. 2026-04-10
    price $255,000
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $155,000 Active
17. 2005-06-08
    soldstatus $140,000
18. 1998-07-10
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $885 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$277/yr (+$23/mo · 31.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,968
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$885
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,157
• − Management: −$2,157
• − HOA: −$6,252
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $2,901
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$696
• After-tax cash flow: $3,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+82.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 1998-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $885 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.