2259 Lake Upchurch Dr · Hope Mills, NC 28371

$310,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,221 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1964 6.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully renovated 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home situated on 6.5 peaceful acres. Completely updated throughout, this property combines modern finishes with the space and privacy of country living. Inside, you’ll find all new flooring, fresh paint, updated light fixtures, and a stunning kitchen featuring brand new cabinets, granite countertops, tile backsplash, and new appliances. The home also features a spacious newly added primary suite with a private bathroom, while both bathrooms have been fully remodeled with all new finishes and fixtures. Additional improvements include a new roof, new windows and doors, new siding, soffit and fascia, new water heater, updat

Key facts

• New cabinets
• Updated flooring
• Stunning kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• UPDATED LIGHT FIXTURES
• STUNNING KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Water from well and spring; Septic tank and holding tank for sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Zoned RR (Rural Residential)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Recessed lighting; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-394 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (37.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hope Mills Middle (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #331 of 475 statewide, top 70%, 514 students, 99% FRL); South View High (math 60% / reading 43%, grade D+, #299 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 1,502 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 55% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $151k; list at $310k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,647 (37.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.45%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,266
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5093 Belinda Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,166 (-4%)	3mo	$169,900	$146	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $143,631
• Equity at exit: $279,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.10×
• Total profit: $442,511
• Equity at exit: $602,262

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28371

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,124/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,445

Max offer price $240,372

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $310,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $310,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,124 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,542 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$418/yr (+$35/mo · 19.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$2,124
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$10,437
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,505
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 39,196
• Population (ZIP): 6,458

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.91%
• Current HPI: 330.85
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+105.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $310,000 LPRMLS
• 2026-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $150,856 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,124 · +37.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.