424 W Hartford Rd · Kearny, AZ 85137

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,293 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1965 6,705 sqft lot $139/sqft · 19% above area Est $151k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Red Brick 3 bedroom 2 bath home ready for move-in. A large additional room offers flexible use as a 4th bedroom, game room, exercise space or family room. Interior laundry room. This home has ceramic tile flooring throughout the living room, kitchen and master bedroom. Two bedrooms have carpet as well as the large bonus room. Kitchen includes refrigerator, gas stove and breakfast bar with tiled countertop. Fully fenced back yard includes a detached storage shed. The shingled roof was replaced in 2023. The central air conditioner/gas furnace unit was also replaced in 2023. Come check this home out!

Key facts

• Additional room
• Breakfast bar
• 6,705 sq ft lot

Tags

• ADDITIONAL ROOM
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• BREAKFAST BAR
• FULLY FENCED BACK YARD
• DETACHED STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#20 in AZ, #4,875 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ray Unified District (4438) (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #318 of 501 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Ray Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 184 students, 55% FRL); Ray Jr/Sr High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 189 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.18%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,180
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: 19.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
418 W Hartford Rd	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (-3%)	4mo	$185,000	$147	86
429 W Greenwich Rd	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,293 (0%)	16mo	$175,000	$135	82
426 W Essex Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,383 (+7%)	3mo	$230,000	$166	79
336 W Greenwich Rd	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-4%)	5mo	$175,000	$140	73
329 W Fairhaven Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-3%)	11mo	$210,000	$167	72
504 W Hartford Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+6%)	14mo	$140,000	$102	71
443 W Ivanhoe Rd	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,164 (-10%)	11mo	$165,000	$142	63
217 W Fairhaven Rd W	0.51mi	3/1.8	1,232 (-5%)	10mo	$230,000	$187	59
302 W Greenwich Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+13%)	1mo	$185,000	$127	56
429 W Fairhaven Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,429 (+10%)	17mo	$146,000	$102	55
215 W Greenwich Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,177 (-9%)	9mo	$173,000	$147	52
610 S York Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,112 (-14%)	3mo	$115,000	$103	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $109,079
• Equity at exit: $162,068

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $312,293
• Equity at exit: $349,506

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85137

• Home prices YoY: 22.6%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $843/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,378

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $226	+0% $175	+5% $124	+10% $74
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $112	+0% $175	+5% $239	+10% $302
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $221	base $175	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
327 W Fairhaven Rd Kearny, AZ	4.0	1.5	1294	$1,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,900 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,900 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,900 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-03-26
    listed $179,900 Active 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    Beautiful Red Brick 3 bedroom 2 bath home ready for move-in. A large additional room offers flexible use as a 4th bedroom, game room, exercise space or family room. Interior laundry room. This home has ceramic tile flooring throughout the living room, kitchen and master bedroom. Two bedrooms have carpet as well as the large bonus room. Kitchen includes refrigerator, gas stove and breakfast bar with tiled countertop. Fully fenced back yard includes a detached storage shed. The shingled roof was replaced in 2023. The central air conditioner/gas furnace unit was also replaced in 2023. Come check this home out!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $843 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$345/yr (+$29/mo · 40.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$843
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$925
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$222
• After-tax cash flow: $2,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ray Unified District (4438)
• NCES district ID: 0406850
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,632
• Composite: 25.45/100
• National rank: #12864
• State rank: #318 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Kearny

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kearny, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 2,533

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 22.16%
• Current HPI: 120.15
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $179,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $843 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.