102 Miller Chapel Blvd · Guyton, GA 31312

$339,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,875 sqft · SingleFamily · 152 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,841 sqft lot Garage $181/sqft · 11% below area Est $384k · 11% under $64/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

START YOUR NEXT CHAPTER IN BRUNSON STATION BY Stanley Martin Homes, GUYTON’S NEWEST AMENITY-FILLED COMMUNITY! This proposed construction, build-to-order homesite gives you the opportunity to tailor your home to fit your preferences. Listing price reflects the base price of the Yardley floor plan, with final pricing varying based on selected options, upgrades, and homesite premiums. The Yardley model features a flexible, modern layout with open-concept living designed for both everyday comfort and entertaining.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Pickleball courts
• Multipurpose courts

Tags

• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• SPORTS FIELD
• MULTIPURPOSE COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• DOG PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-371 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#128 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marlow Elementary School (math 63% / reading 50%, grade C+, #159 of 1,228 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 31% FRL); South Effingham Middle School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade B-, #52 of 470 statewide, top 11%, 1,097 students, 32% FRL); South Effingham High School (math 33% / reading 27%, grade F, #135 of 424 statewide, top 32%, 1,888 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 549 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 110d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,528 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,028
• List price: $339,990
• Delta: -8.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
319 Windsor Rd	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,863 (-1%)	2mo	$415,000	$223	85
626 Majestic Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,041 (+9%)	0mo	$346,000	$170	70
426 Shellie Helmey Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,912 (+2%)	15mo	$369,900	$193	59
121 Sams Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,001 (+7%)	1mo	$335,000	$167	54
102 Sam's Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,138 (+14%)	5mo	$379,000	$177	41
138 Sams Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,138 (+14%)	1mo	$368,000	$172	40
125 Annie Dr	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,138 (+14%)	11mo	$373,500	$175	30
138 Sam's Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,138 (+14%)	23mo	$359,000	$168	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-78,658
• Equity at exit: $50,694

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-98,620
• Equity at exit: $29,396

Cash invested: $95,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.4 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $365,000 ($187/sqft)
• Median days on market: 84 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31312

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,585 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,100/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,055

Max offer price $286,273

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-254	+0% $-371	+5% $-489	+10% $-606
Rent	-10% $-575	-5% $-473	+0% $-371	+5% $-269	+10% $-167
Rate	-1.0pp $-200	-0.5pp $-285	base $-371	+0.5pp $-459	+1.0pp $-549

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,998
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
138 Sams Dr Guyton, GA	4.0	3.0	2138	$2,880	$1.35	6d	1	0.75mi
105 Burrows WAY Guyton, GA	3.0	2.5	1353	$1,999	$1.48	119d	37	0.79mi
134 Mustang Dr Guyton, GA	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,000	$1.60	6d	1	0.93mi
104 Clydesdale Ct Guyton, GA	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,150	$1.46	109d	1	1.00mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Brunson Station
• HOA & community: Homeowners associationAnnual association fee of $770Community features: pool, playground, street lights, sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spacesOff-street parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence2 storiesNew constructionProposed development
• Construction: Vinyl sidingAsphalt roofSlab foundationBuilt by Stanley Martin Homes (Yardley model)Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Community poolPaved road

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveOvenRangeElectric water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric)Electric heatingForced airHeat pump
• Interior features: Double vanityKitchen islandPantry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $339,990 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $339,990 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   pricedays on market $339,990 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $349,990 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $349,990 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $349,990 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $349,990 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $349,990 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $349,990 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $349,990 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $349,990 Active 132 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $349,990 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $349,990 Active 128 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 127 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    pricedays on market $349,990 Active 126 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $359,990 Active 125 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $359,990 Active 124 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $359,990 Active 123 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $359,990 Active 122 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $359,990 Active 121 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $359,990 Active 120 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $359,990 Active 119 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $359,990 Active 118 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $359,990 Active 117 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $359,990 Active 116 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $359,990 Active 115 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $359,990 Active 114 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $359,990 Active 113 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $359,990 Active 112 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $359,990 Active 111 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $359,990 Active 110 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $359,990 Active 109 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $359,990 Active 108 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $359,990 Active 107 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $359,990 Active 106 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $359,990 Active 105 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $359,990 Active 104 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $359,990 Active 103 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $359,990 Active 102 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $359,990 Active 101 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $359,990 Active 98 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $359,990 Active 97 DOM
47. 2026-07-29
    days on market $359,990 Active 96 DOM
48. 2026-07-27
    days on market $359,990 Active 94 DOM
49. 2026-07-25
    days on market $359,990 Active 92 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $359,990 Active 90 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$5,100
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,482
• − Management: −$2,482
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$10,444
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,506
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Modernizes the home and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Saves on energy costs and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marlow Elementary School C+ GA #159/1,228 Nat'l #9,263/41,679 Middle South Effingham Middle School B- GA #52/470 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High South Effingham High School F GA #135/424 Nat'l #10,947/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Effingham County
• NCES district ID: 1301980
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,503
• Composite: 42.56/100
• National rank: #3195
• State rank: #16 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Guyton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #9058

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Effingham County · 67,399 people
• City population: 25,991
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• Population (ZIP): 25,991
• Household income: $101,750
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,399 people
• By 2030: 72,297 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 81,602 · +21.1%
• By 2050: 89,494 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 105,976 · +57.2%
• By 2100: 111,943 · +66.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 25.2% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -50.7pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 205.9899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Brunson Station
• HOA & community: Homeowners associationAnnual association fee of $770Community features: pool, playground, street lights, sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spacesOff-street parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence2 storiesNew constructionProposed development
• Construction: Vinyl sidingAsphalt roofSlab foundationBuilt by Stanley Martin Homes (Yardley model)Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Community poolPaved road

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveOvenRangeElectric water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric)Electric heatingForced airHeat pump
• Interior features: Double vanityKitchen islandPantry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $359,990 Hive MLS