102 Miller Chapel Blvd · Guyton, GA 31312

$359,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,875 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,841 sqft lot Garage $192/sqft · 6% below area Est $384k · 6% under $64/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

START YOUR NEXT CHAPTER IN BRUNSON STATION BY Stanley Martin Homes, GUYTON’S NEWEST AMENITY-FILLED COMMUNITY! This proposed construction, build-to-order homesite gives you the opportunity to tailor your home to fit your preferences. Listing price reflects the base price of the Yardley floor plan, with final pricing varying based on selected options, upgrades, and homesite premiums. The Yardley model features a flexible, modern layout with open-concept living designed for both everyday comfort and entertaining.

Key facts

• Dog park
• Pickleball courts
• Multipurpose courts

Tags

• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• SPORTS FIELD
• MULTIPURPOSE COURTS
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• DOG PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $360k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-469 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (18.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#128 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marlow Elementary School (math 63% / reading 50%, grade C+, #159 of 1,228 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 31% FRL); South Effingham Middle School (math 51% / reading 58%, grade B-, #52 of 470 statewide, top 11%, 1,097 students, 32% FRL); South Effingham High School (math 33% / reading 27%, grade F, #135 of 424 statewide, top 32%, 1,888 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 463 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,649 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.58%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $384,423
• List price: $359,990
• Delta: -6.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
319 Windsor Rd	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,863 (-1%)	0mo	$415,000	$223	86
426 Shellie Helmey Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,912 (+2%)	14mo	$369,900	$193	60
102 Sam's Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,138 (+14%)	4mo	$379,000	$177	42
125 Annie Dr	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,138 (+14%)	10mo	$373,500	$175	32
138 Sam's Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,138 (+14%)	22mo	$359,000	$168	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-88,124
• Equity at exit: $53,676

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-114,878
• Equity at exit: $31,125

Cash invested: $100,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $410,000 ($187/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31312

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 463
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,636 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$450 /mo · $5,400/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,230

Max offer price $292,127

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-220	-5% $-345	+0% $-469	+5% $-593	+10% $-718
Rent	-10% $-677	-5% $-573	+0% $-469	+5% $-365	+10% $-261
Rate	-1.0pp $-288	-0.5pp $-377	base $-469	+0.5pp $-562	+1.0pp $-657

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,998
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Burrows WAY Guyton, GA	3.0	2.5	1353	$1,999	$1.48	72d	37	0.79mi
104 Clydesdale Ct Guyton, GA	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,150	$1.46	63d	1	1.00mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Brunson Station
• HOA & community: Homeowners associationAnnual association fee of $770Community features: pool, playground, street lights, sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spacesOff-street parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence2 storiesNew constructionProposed development
• Construction: Vinyl sidingAsphalt roofSlab foundationBuilt by Stanley Martin Homes (Yardley model)Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Community poolPaved road

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveOvenRangeElectric water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric)Electric heatingForced airHeat pump
• Interior features: Double vanityKitchen islandPantry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $359,990 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $359,990 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $359,990 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $359,990 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $359,990 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $359,990 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $359,990 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $359,990 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $359,990 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $359,990 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $359,990 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $359,990 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $359,990 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $359,990 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $359,990 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $359,990 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $359,990 Active 82 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $359,990 Active 81 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $359,990 Active 80 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $359,990 Active 79 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $359,990 Active 78 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $359,990 Active 77 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $359,990 Active 76 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $359,990 Active 75 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $359,990 Active 74 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $359,990 Active 73 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $359,990 Active 72 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $359,990 Active 71 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $359,990 Active 70 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $359,990 Active 69 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $359,990 Active 68 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $359,990 Active 67 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $359,990 Active 66 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $359,990 Active 65 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $359,990 Active 64 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $359,990 Active 63 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $359,990 Active 61 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $359,990 Active 59 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $359,990 Active 58 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $359,990 Active 55 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $359,990 Active 54 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $359,990 Active 53 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $359,990 Active 52 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $359,990 Active 50 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $359,990 Active 49 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $359,990 Active 47 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $359,990 Active 46 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $359,990 Active 45 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $359,990 Active 44 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $359,990 Active 41 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,165
• − Property taxes: −$5,400
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,531
• − Management: −$2,531
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$10,472
• Taxable loss: −$12,029
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,887
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Modernizes the home and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Saves on energy costs and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marlow Elementary School C+ GA #159/1,228 Nat'l #9,263/41,679 Middle South Effingham Middle School B- GA #52/470 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High South Effingham High School F GA #135/424 Nat'l #10,947/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Effingham County
• NCES district ID: 1301980
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,503
• Composite: 42.56/100
• National rank: #3195
• State rank: #16 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Guyton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #9058

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Effingham County · 67,399 people
• City population: 25,991
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• Population (ZIP): 25,991
• Household income: $101,750
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,399 people
• By 2030: 72,297 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 81,602 · +21.1%
• By 2050: 89,494 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 105,976 · +57.2%
• By 2100: 111,943 · +66.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 25.2% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -50.7pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 205.9899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Brunson Station
• HOA & community: Homeowners associationAnnual association fee of $770Community features: pool, playground, street lights, sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spacesOff-street parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence2 storiesNew constructionProposed development
• Construction: Vinyl sidingAsphalt roofSlab foundationBuilt by Stanley Martin Homes (Yardley model)Home warranty included
• Exterior features: Community poolPaved road

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveOvenRangeElectric water heater
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric)Electric heatingForced airHeat pump
• Interior features: Double vanityKitchen islandPantry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $359,990 Hive MLS