10368 Spring Mill Rd · Concord, VA 24538

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1965 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute little 2 bedroom, 1 bath home built in the center of a large 1 acre lot with modern updates. The land is accented by beautiful and historic red and white oaks. Updated kitchen and bathroom Brand new septic system and newer heat pump, as well. Large storage shed on the property conveys. Large deck on the front of the home. All appliances convey. Laminate wood-look floors in the living room. Quiet, country living that is convenient to Lynchburg, Rustburg and Appomattox. Schedule a private showing today.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Modern updates
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• MODERN UPDATES
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• NEWER HEAT PUMP
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• LARGE DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($309/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.0% in Concord — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#335 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Concord Elementary (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 432 students, 74% FRL); Rustburg Middle (math 49% / reading 65%, grade B, #178 of 342 statewide, top 53%, 606 students, 74% FRL); Rustburg High (math 77% / reading 67%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 828 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 37% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $135k implies a 329% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,596 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-20,307
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-15,859
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24538

• Home prices YoY: -9.8%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,036 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $342/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,003

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $102	-5% $64	+0% $26	+5% $-12	+10% $-51
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $-15	+0% $26	+5% $67	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $60	base $26	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $135,000
3. 2026-03-26
   listed $145,000 Active
4. 2012-05-25
   soldstatus $31,500
5. 2007-10-25
   soldstatus $83,000
6. 2006-10-06
   soldstatus $19,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $342 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,107 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$765/yr (+$64/mo · 224.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$342
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$995
• − Management: −$995
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$2,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$495
• After-tax cash flow: $804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100600
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,915
• Composite: 51.88/100
• National rank: #1656
• State rank: #55 of 131 in VA

Livability — Concord

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #335
• US rank: #12864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,823

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,306 people
• By 2030: 56,366 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 55,406 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 53,011 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 45,932 · -18.4%
• By 2100: 36,029 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 25.3% · R 73.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+44.1 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.15%
• Current HPI: 194.1361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+578.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $135,000 LMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $145,000 LMLS
• 2012-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records
• 2007-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $19,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $342 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.