104 Hilltop Dr · Hendersonville, TN 37075

$285,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1971 0.52 ac lot $211/sqft · 18% below area Est $350k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

All brick one-level home with beautiful level backyard sitting on little over 1/2 acre. Newer roof with endless possibilities. Great home for first time homebuyer or investor. .Home being sold in AS IS Condition.

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• Built 1971
• Listed 68 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.7% in Hendersonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#56 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sumner County (suburban): math 44% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #12 of 139 in TN (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 677 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,748 units permitted in Sumner County in 2024 (124 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumner County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,113 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,576
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -18.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
230 S Valley Rd	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,271 (-6%)	4mo	$155,000	$122	82
116 Ridgecrest Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,296 (-4%)	2mo	$350,000	$270	79
221 S Valley Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,378 (+2%)	21mo	$349,900	$254	62
107 Hillsdale Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-9%)	11mo	$352,000	$286	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-64,229
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-89,854
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37075

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 677
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,941 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,017/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,220

Max offer price $246,115

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-139	+0% $-220	+5% $-301	+10% $-381
Rent	-10% $-373	-5% $-297	+0% $-220	+5% $-143	+10% $-67
Rate	-1.0pp $-77	-0.5pp $-148	base $-220	+0.5pp $-294	+1.0pp $-369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Ridgecrest Dr Unit B Hendersonville, TN	2.0	1.0	950	$1,195	$1.26	5d	1	0.27mi
152 Two Valley Rd Hendersonville, TN	4.0	2.5	1575	$2,405	$1.53	24d	1	0.28mi
209 Township Dr Hendersonville, TN	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,065	$1.32	44d	1	0.90mi
1070 W Main St Hendersonville, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,784	$1.97	2d	26	0.96mi
126 Monthaven Blvd Hendersonville, TN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	972	$1,973	$2.03	2d	35	1.02mi
164 Hillside Dr Hendersonville, TN	3.0	1.5	1053	$1,975	$1.88	21d	1	1.04mi
108 Ryan Dr Hendersonville, TN	3.0	1.5	1218	$1,990	$1.63	15d	1	1.05mi
1080 W Main St Hendersonville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	985	$1,626	$1.65	2d	26	1.06mi
120 Nearwater Pl Hendersonville, TN	2.0	2.5	1538	$1,995	$1.30	8d	1	1.13mi
109 Shady View Dr Hendersonville, TN	3.0	2.0	1161	$1,700	$1.46	24d	1	1.24mi
108 Crestmont Dr Hendersonville, TN	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,495	$1.35	44d	1	1.39mi
231 New Shackle Island Rd Hendersonville, TN	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	830	$1,639	$1.97	5d	6	1.47mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    listed $285,000 Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    All brick one-level home with beautiful level backyard sitting on little over 1/2 acre. Newer roof with endless possibilities. Great home for first time homebuyer or investor. .Home being sold in AS IS Condition.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,017 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,024 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,007/yr (+$84/mo · 99.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,017
• − Insurance: −$2,092
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,863
• − Management: −$1,863
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$7,797
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,871
• After-tax cash flow: $-770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumner County
• NCES district ID: 4704020
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,998
• Composite: 36.44/100
• National rank: #4667
• State rank: #12 of 139 in TN

Livability — Hendersonville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #7730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sumner County · 196,654 people
• City population: 73,522
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 73,522
• Household income: $101,850
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1258.0

Population outlook (Sumner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 208,284 people
• By 2030: 223,902 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 253,892 · +21.9%
• By 2050: 281,199 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 344,866 · +65.6%
• By 2100: 384,369 · +84.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 28.5% · R 70.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.9pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+38.6 2016: R+45.0 2012: R+42.0 2008: R+34.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.80%
• Current HPI: 289.6615
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $285,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,017 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.