1613 9th Ave · Olivehurst, CA 95961

$249,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1947 4,356 sqft lot $232/sqft · 24% below area Est $329k · 24% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable, Adorable 3 bedroom home with bonus room. Freshly remodeled with new flooring, paint, kitchen counter and cabinets. The bonus room can be used for office, game room or family room. Third bedroom has outdoor access. This home is great for first time home buyer, investment or a place to call home. Come take a look.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Bright living area
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• SPACIOUS YARD
• ROOM FOR ENTERTAINING
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY 70

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.8% in Olivehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#679 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Marysville Joint Unified (suburban): math 14% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #455 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 750 units permitted in Yuba County in 2024 (41 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yuba County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $250k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,262 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,762
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -23.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4724 Western	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,044 (-3%)	8mo	$274,000	$262	81
4779 Pacific Ave	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-2%)	9mo	$325,000	$308	81
4803 Pacific Ave	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,019 (-5%)	1mo	$305,500	$300	80
4928 Okmulgee Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,068 (-1%)	3mo	$325,000	$304	68
1909 10th Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,082 (+1%)	1mo	$350,000	$323	68
1829 8th Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+4%)	1mo	$350,000	$313	67
1906 Chapman Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-2%)	2mo	$289,000	$275	66
4859 Arboga Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	940 (-13%)	2mo	$342,000	$364	61
4493 Ardmore Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,128 (+5%)	4mo	$340,000	$301	58
1678 6th Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-9%)	4mo	$135,000	$138	57
1648 4th Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+12%)	1mo	$395,000	$329	46
4404 Seykota Ave	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,140 (+6%)	5mo	$350,000	$307	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-29,122
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-10,921
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95961

• Home prices YoY: -28.2%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,193 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,654/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,965

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1815 7th Ave Apt B Olivehurst, CA	3.0	2.0	960	$1,695	$1.77	13d	1	0.49mi
1817 7th Ave Unit B Olivehurst, CA	3.0	2.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	43d	1	0.50mi
1920 10th Ave Olivehurst, CA	3.0	2.0	1160	$2,300	$1.98	21d	1	0.64mi
1624 Catalpa St Olivehurst, CA	3.0	1.0	960	$2,150	$2.24	13d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $249,900 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $249,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,900 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 39 DOM
12. 2019-01-23
    soldstatus $130,000 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Affordable, Adorable 3 bedroom home with bonus room. Freshly remodeled with new flooring, paint, kitchen counter and cabinets. The bonus room can be used for office, game room or family room. Third bedroom has outdoor access. This home is great for first time home buyer, investment or a place to call home. Come take a look.

13. 2019-01-23
    soldstatus $130,000

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Affordable, Adorable 3 bedroom home with bonus room. Freshly remodeled with new flooring, paint, kitchen counter and cabinets. The bonus room can be used for office, game room or family room. Third bedroom has outdoor access. This home is great for first time home buyer, investment or a place to call home. Come take a look.

14. 2019-01-23
    soldstatus $130,000

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Affordable, Adorable 3 bedroom home with bonus room. Freshly remodeled with new flooring, paint, kitchen counter and cabinets. The bonus room can be used for office, game room or family room. Third bedroom has outdoor access. This home is great for first time home buyer, investment or a place to call home. Come take a look.

15. 2018-12-18
    listed $134,900 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Affordable, Adorable 3 bedroom home with bonus room. Freshly remodeled with new flooring, paint, kitchen counter and cabinets. The bonus room can be used for office, game room or family room. Third bedroom has outdoor access. This home is great for first time home buyer, investment or a place to call home. Come take a look.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,654 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,899 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$245/yr (+$20/mo · 14.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,654
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,105
• − Management: −$2,105
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$2,070
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$497
• After-tax cash flow: $2,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marysville Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624090
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,598
• Composite: 18.18/100
• National rank: #8961
• State rank: #455 of 517 in CA

Livability — Olivehurst

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #679
• US rank: #20829

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olivehurst, CA
• County: Yuba County · 71,731 people
• City population: 33,999
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,999
• Household income: $89,561
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Yuba County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,432 people
• By 2030: 75,358 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 74,643 · -1.0%
• By 2050: 72,937 · -3.3%
• By 2075: 66,368 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 54,524 · -27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 18% Asian 8% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yuba

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 35.7% · R 61.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.7pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+14.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.37%
• Current HPI: 222.3191
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Yuba City, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2019-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-23 Sold (MLS) $130,000 CRMLS
• 2018-12-18 Listed $134,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+21.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,654 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.