4307 Jesenia St · San Juan, TX 78589

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 197 Days on market

Built 1983 7,000 sqft lot $94/sqft · 36% below area Est $203k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located just off N. Raul Longoria Road and W. Minnesota Road, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath fixer-upper offers incredible potential in a highly desirable area. With 1,300+ living square feet on a 0.16-acre lot, this property is ideal for anyone looking to invest, flip, or renovate into their next dream home. The home features a covered patio, spacious layout, and a convenient location just a straight drive down from the expressway, providing easy access to nearby schools, shopping, and dining. With the right vision and updates, this property can shine again. Perfect opportunity for investors or buyers looking for a project with strong value in a growing area. Financing Options include Owner Financing or Cash deals

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Convenient location
• 7,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $289 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.54%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,153
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -36.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
912 41st St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+3%)	2mo	$249,900	$175	60
4605 Mountain Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+12%)	8mo	$248,000	$160	58
722 San Ignacio St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-1%)	7mo	$205,000	$149	56
3801 La Paloma Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+6%)	2mo	$255,000	$173	56
720 San Ignacio St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-4%)	4mo	$173,406	$131	54
726 San Ignacio St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,319 (-5%)	4mo	$172,178	$131	52
728 San Ignacio St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-6%)	4mo	$170,172	$131	50
904 E 38th St	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,320 (-5%)	7mo	$249,500	$189	50
901 E 40th St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,549 (+12%)	8mo	$285,000	$184	42
3707 La Paloma St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+13%)	4mo	$272,000	$173	41
905 38th St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+14%)	0mo	$295,000	$186	36
713 San Lucas St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+11%)	7mo	$189,900	$124	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,561
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $21,894
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,671 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,717/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,305

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $362	-5% $326	+0% $289	+5% $252	+10% $215
Rent	-10% $157	-5% $223	+0% $289	+5% $355	+10% $421
Rate	-1.0pp $354	-0.5pp $322	base $289	+0.5pp $255	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
706 Fitzgerald St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,750	$1.39	44d	1	0.29mi
105 Lauryn Dr Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	948	$1,150	$1.21	24d	1	0.66mi
200 Lauryn Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,275	$1.34	15d	1	0.68mi
304 Lauryn Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	948	$1,195	$1.26	24d	1	0.75mi
304 S Ridge Ln Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1120	$975	$0.87	44d	1	0.81mi
203 Encino Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	969	$1,500	$1.55	24d	1	1.12mi
2716 E Conroe Rd Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.5	1623	$2,300	$1.42	15d	1	1.25mi
2700 E Comal RD Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$2,300	$1.52	15d	1	1.33mi
207 E Garfield St San Juan, TX	4.0	3.0	1818	$1,900	$1.05	15d	1	1.39mi
2700 Garman St Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,950	$1.53	15d	1	1.39mi
2614 Garman St Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1813	$2,750	$1.52	15d	1	1.40mi
2606 Garman St Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$1,900	$1.31	19d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 179 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 178 DOM
16. 2025-12-03
    listed $130,000 Active 719-char remark

    Show marketing remark (719 chars)

    Located just off N. Raul Longoria Road and W. Minnesota Road, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath fixer-upper offers incredible potential in a highly desirable area. With 1,300+ living square feet on a 0.16-acre lot, this property is ideal for anyone looking to invest, flip, or renovate into their next dream home. The home features a covered patio, spacious layout, and a convenient location just a straight drive down from the expressway, providing easy access to nearby schools, shopping, and dining. With the right vision and updates, this property can shine again. Perfect opportunity for investors or buyers looking for a project with strong value in a growing area. Financing Options include Owner Financing or Cash deals

17. 2025-08-19
    soldstatus
18. 2025-02-14
    soldstatus
19. 1989-04-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,717 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$662/yr (+$55/mo · 38.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AH · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,717
• − Insurance: −$2,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $1,586
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$381
• After-tax cash flow: $3,086/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Listed $130,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,717 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.