11537 Cinnamon Rose · San Antonio, TX 78109

$164,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily · 138 Days on market

Built 2024 4,791 sqft lot Est $215k · 23% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Avas - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tradition El (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 993 students, 51% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1152 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.32%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11537 Cinnamon Rose	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	0mo	$164,999	$120	100
8010 Biggio Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-2%)	1mo	$192,999	$143	96
8018 Biggio Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-2%)	1mo	$210,999	$156	96
1405 Sequoia Park	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+4%)	2mo	$245,865	$171	92
10313 Lassen Park	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+6%)	1mo	$276,499	$188	86
8030 Biggio Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+8%)	1mo	$205,999	$139	82
8014 Biggio Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+8%)	1mo	$218,999	$148	82
1411 Capitol Reef	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+14%)	0mo	$257,310	$164	72
1441 Sequoia Park	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+14%)	1mo	$253,500	$161	71
2009 Chicksaw Rose	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+14%)	1mo	$202,999	$129	70
1916 Chicksaw Rose	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+14%)	1mo	$209,999	$133	70
9427 Lochridge Pike	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,271 (-8%)	1mo	$242,294	$191	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-18,717
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-18,922
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78109

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1152
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,729 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,470

Max offer price $164,999

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5625 Rowan RDG Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,700	$1.06	4d	1	0.01mi
11621 Dog Rose Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	4d	1	0.01mi
11710 California Rose Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1867	$1,635	$0.88	21d	1	0.01mi
11810 Spiderwort RDG Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1535	$1,497	$0.98	43d	1	0.01mi
9411 Braman Pt Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$1,950	$1.15	17d	1	0.28mi
4611 East Loop 1604 N Unit 710 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$981	$1.09	2d	1	0.30mi
5510 Cibolo Pass Unit 1 Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,695	$1.35	23d	1	0.57mi
5423 Devils Gate Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,650	$1.28	11d	1	0.63mi
5435 Devils Gate Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	2d	1	0.65mi
5435 Devils Gate Unit 1 Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	14d	1	0.65mi
5506 Rio Cyn Unit 2 Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1351	$1,549	$1.15	43d	1	0.69mi
5114 Y Bar Smt Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,525	$1.20	4d	1	0.74mi
4326 Stanley Park Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,650	$1.11	1d	1	0.74mi
9204 Canyon Bnd Unit 2 Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1372	$1,495	$1.09	43d	1	0.76mi
9213 Groff Lndg Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	11d	1	0.78mi
8911 Sumners Wise Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,745	$1.07	2d	1	0.79mi
9211 Griffith Run Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,446	$1.14	4d	1	0.79mi
9115 Griffith Run Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,521	$1.20	43d	1	0.84mi
8810 Barrow Path Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,695	$1.02	20d	1	0.84mi
8803 Barrow Path Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,570	$1.09	23d	1	0.86mi
3035 Selhurst St Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,800	$1.16	23d	1	0.88mi
5223 Hornbeck Hts Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,795	$1.25	43d	1	0.88mi
5107 Hornbeck Hts Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,496	$1.18	4d	1	0.89mi
9026 Bowring Park Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,795	$1.04	43d	1	0.90mi
5170 Fowler Crst Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,695	$1.17	4d	1	0.91mi
5135 Fowler Crst Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,950	$1.54	4d	1	0.94mi
10310 Waverunner Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,695	$1.15	3d	1	0.95mi
8902 Grand Western Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1570	$1,995	$1.27	43d	1	0.98mi
10410 Waverunner Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,750	$1.20	23d	1	0.99mi
9110 Longhorn Park Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,675	$1.02	16d	1	1.01mi
9110 Longhorn Park Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,675	$1.02	12d	1	1.01mi
9310 Nubuck Br Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,895	$1.24	4d	1	1.07mi
6426 Thorpe Holw Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1414	$1,600	$1.13	23d	1	1.08mi
5950 Frisbee Path Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,700	$1.02	43d	1	1.12mi
4351 W Vasquez Cir Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$1,850	$1.12	19d	1	1.14mi
10403 Midsummer Mdw Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,775	$1.04	23d	1	1.17mi
4398 W Vasquez Cir Unit 710 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,388	$1.31	2d	1	1.19mi
9219 Bennett Frst Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,900	$1.25	43d	1	1.20mi
9234 Foxing Blfs Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1414	$1,825	$1.29	2d	1	1.22mi
5431 Rue Girard Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1605	$1,700	$1.06	23d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   price $164,999
3. 2026-04-17
   price $184,999
4. 2026-04-16
   status Back on Market
5. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
6. 2026-04-09
   price $162,999
7. 2026-04-07
   price $164,999
8. 2026-03-25
   price $184,999
9. 2026-03-24
   status Back on Market
10. 2026-03-19
    status Pending
11. 2026-03-12
    price $166,999
12. 2026-03-04
    price $184,999
13. 2026-02-24
    price $164,999
14. 2026-02-11
    price $184,999
15. 2026-01-31
    price $189,999
16. 2026-01-27
    price $194,499
17. 2025-12-14
    price $253,999
18. 2025-12-02
    listed $195,499 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,660
• − Management: −$1,660
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$163
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$39
• After-tax cash flow: $2,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,067
• Household income: $91,320
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1732.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 27% Two or more races 21% Black 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.02%
• Current HPI: 236.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.6% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $164,999 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $184,999 LERA
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-04-14 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $162,999 LERA
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $164,999 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $184,999 LERA
• 2026-03-24 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-03-19 Pending — LERA
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $166,999 LERA
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $184,999 LERA
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $164,999 LERA
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $184,999 LERA
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $189,999 LERA
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $194,499 LERA
• 2025-12-14 Price Changed $253,999 LERA
• 2025-12-02 Listed $195,499 LERA