2439 Anthony Hay Ln · Houston, TX 77449

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1983 6,599 sqft lot Est $262k · 43% under $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3 bedroom 2 bath residence located in the established Williamsburg Colony community. This home offers a functional floor plan with ample living spaces, spacious kitchen and a private backyard. Primary suite features en-suite bath. Access to neighborhood amenities include community pool, clubhouse, playground, parks and tennis courts. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining and schools.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Private backyard

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUND
• PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Crest Management Company; Monthly association fee of $33; Community amenities include clubhouse, park, pool, and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 1983; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Asphalt road access; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (12 x 16); Two additional bedrooms on first floor (each 10 x 12); One more bedroom on first floor (10 x 12)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen open to family room; Gas log fireplace (one)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Morton Ranch J H (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 1,184 students, 75% FRL); Morton Ranch H S (math 31% / reading 55%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 2,718 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 27% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Katy ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $150k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.74%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,450
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22810 John Rolfe Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,447 (-0%)	0mo	$275,000	$190	90
22815 Stratford House Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,490 (+3%)	1mo	$249,000	$167	89
22623 Elkana Deane Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-3%)	0mo	$260,000	$185	82
22619 Blair Manor Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-6%)	1mo	$242,000	$177	77
22551 Market Square Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,429 (-1%)	3mo	$239,900	$168	70
22506 Elkana Deane Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$242,000	$180	68
2519 Northern Great White Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,521 (+5%)	2mo	$275,000	$181	68
2430 Blue Reef Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+4%)	1mo	$275,000	$182	64
2654 Anthony Hay Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-11%)	4mo	$249,900	$193	63
22334 Guston Hall Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,349 (-7%)	2mo	$269,900	$200	60
22606 Banter Point Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	0mo	$278,400	$174	52
2406 Seahorse Bend Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+11%)	3mo	$280,000	$174	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-7,842
• Equity at exit: $34,268

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,257
• Equity at exit: $34,356

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$430 /mo · $5,166/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22822 Capitol Landing Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1702	$1,399	$0.82	22d	1	0.09mi
22819 Carter Moir Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,895	$1.15	17d	1	0.31mi
23010 Franz Rd Unit 23047 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,455	$1.36	15d	1	0.32mi
23010 Franz Rd Unit 2112 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,670	$1.50	3d	1	0.32mi
23010 Franz Rd Unit 2162 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,678	$1.50	4d	1	0.32mi
23010 Franz Rd Unit 23067 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,480	$1.38	43d	1	0.32mi
23010 Franz Rd Unit 23033 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,702	$1.53	10d	1	0.32mi
22510 Leedstown Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,649	$1.29	5d	1	0.39mi
2753 W Grand Pkwy N Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,799	$1.68	43d	1	0.46mi
2020 Grandway Dr Katy, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,013	$2.11	2d	46	0.51mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 23256 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,283	$1.63	43d	1	0.54mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 23260 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	983	$1,659	$1.69	43d	1	0.54mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 3187 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,240	$1.60	3d	1	0.54mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,272	$1.62	10d	1	0.54mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 2174 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	983	$1,669	$1.70	10d	1	0.54mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 424 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	983	$1,634	$1.66	5d	1	0.54mi
23223 First Park Dr Unit 2112 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	983	$1,626	$1.65	3d	1	0.54mi
22777 Franz Rd Unit 2112 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,379	$1.39	3d	1	0.55mi
22777 Franz Rd Unit 22814 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,515	$1.53	43d	1	0.55mi
22777 Franz Rd Unit 424 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,387	$1.40	5d	1	0.55mi
22777 Franz Rd Unit 22814 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,411	$1.43	10d	1	0.55mi
23050 Morton Ranch Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$2,609	$2.35	1d	31	0.70mi
3206 Peek Rd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$2,279	$1.48	43d	1	0.83mi
1724 Partnership Way Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–3.5	1536	$3,340	$2.17	1d	86	0.90mi
1616 Partnership Way Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1283	$2,995	$2.33	5d	47	0.93mi
3200 Peek Rd Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$2,351	$2.20	2d	30	0.94mi
1502 Partnership Way Unit 2174 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1207	$1,774	$1.47	11d	1	0.97mi
1502 Partnership Way Unit 424 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1207	$1,739	$1.44	5d	1	0.97mi
1502 Partnership Way Unit 2187 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1207	$1,731	$1.43	3d	1	0.97mi
1502 Partnership Way Unit 1539 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,714	$1.57	43d	1	0.97mi
1502 Partnership Way Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,800	$1.65	43d	1	0.97mi
1799 Earl of Dunmore St Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,670	$1.56	11d	1	1.19mi
21622 Stonecross Terrace Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,050	$1.15	24d	1	1.21mi
22631 Colonial Pkwy Unit 424 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1195	$1,639	$1.37	5d	1	1.22mi
22631 Colonial Pkwy Unit 2228 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1195	$1,631	$1.36	3d	1	1.22mi
22631 Colonial Pkwy Unit 22668 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1195	$1,663	$1.39	10d	1	1.22mi
22631 Colonial Pkwy Unit 22688 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,339	$1.25	12d	1	1.22mi
22631 Colonial Pkwy Unit 22668 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1151	$1,740	$1.51	43d	1	1.22mi
2031 Wigmaker Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,800	$1.26	5d	1	1.29mi
22540 Merchants Way Katy, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	921	$2,041	$2.21	2d	29	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 416-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $150,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,166 · $430/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,166 · $430/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$5,166
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,797
• − Management: −$1,797
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$51
• After-tax cash flow: $2,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+150.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 1996-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $59,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,166 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.