4202 Monarch St · Amarillo, TX 79118

$272,100

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily · 159 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,009 sqft lot $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * up to $10K Closing Concessions! (Conditions apply) * * * Welcome to the Hawaii floorplan stylish 3-bedroom home designed with both elegance and practicality in mind. From the moment you step inside, you'll notice the thoughtfully designed layout that effortlessly combines modern convenience with timeless charm. The spacious kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring abundant cabinetry and a central island that adds both functionality and sophistication. The open-concept living and dining areas flow together beautifully, creating an inviting space where family gatherings and quiet moments of relaxation are equally at home. A convenient 2-car garage offers plenty of storage and easy access. Step outside to enjoy the well-maintained front and backyards, complete with sod and irrigation, so you can spend more time relaxing and less time on upkeep. Inside, you'll find high-end features like granite countertops, custom cabinetry, and energy-efficient spray foam insulation, ensuring a comfortable, modern living experience. The Hawaii floorplan is the perfect blend of style and practicality, making it the ideal place to call home. Ask about our current promotions today - you won't want to miss out! (Please note: Photos are for reference only. Actual brick, granite, paint colors, and floorplan orientation may vary based on the specific home. )

Key facts

• Central island
• Custom cabinetry
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $272k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sundown Lane El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 341 students, 52% FRL); Greenways Int (math 73% / reading 50%, grade B+, #141 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 619 students, 35% FRL); Randall H S (math 43% / reading 64%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,148 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 278 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $225,923 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-44,465
• Equity at exit: $40,571

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-21,286
• Equity at exit: $23,526

Cash invested: $76,188 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79118

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 278
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,427
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$340 /mo · $4,082/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,384

Max offer price $257,829

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $-5	+0% $-99	+5% $-193	+10% $-287
Rent	-10% $-277	-5% $-188	+0% $-99	+5% $-9	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $38	-0.5pp $-29	base $-99	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-241

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,025
• Closing costs: $8,163
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4400 Sunset St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,125	$1.52	45d	1	0.13mi
10602 Stone Meadow Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,200	$1.40	45d	1	0.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $272,100 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $272,100 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $272,100 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $272,100 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $272,100 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $272,100 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,100 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $272,100 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $272,100 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $272,100 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $272,100 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $272,100 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $272,100 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $272,100 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $272,100 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $272,100 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $272,100 Active 137 DOM
18. 2026-01-14
    listed $272,100 Active 1371-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1371 chars)

    * * * up to $10K Closing Concessions! (Conditions apply) * * * Welcome to the Hawaii floorplan stylish 3-bedroom home designed with both elegance and practicality in mind. From the moment you step inside, you'll notice the thoughtfully designed layout that effortlessly combines modern convenience with timeless charm. The spacious kitchen is the heart of the home, featuring abundant cabinetry and a central island that adds both functionality and sophistication. The open-concept living and dining areas flow together beautifully, creating an inviting space where family gatherings and quiet moments of relaxation are equally at home. A convenient 2-car garage offers plenty of storage and easy access. Step outside to enjoy the well-maintained front and backyards, complete with sod and irrigation, so you can spend more time relaxing and less time on upkeep. Inside, you'll find high-end features like granite countertops, custom cabinetry, and energy-efficient spray foam insulation, ensuring a comfortable, modern living experience. The Hawaii floorplan is the perfect blend of style and practicality, making it the ideal place to call home. Ask about our current promotions today - you won't want to miss out! (Please note: Photos are for reference only. Actual brick, granite, paint colors, and floorplan orientation may vary based on the specific home. )

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,242
• − Property taxes: −$4,082
• − Insurance: −$1,360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,169
• − Management: −$2,169
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$7,916
• Taxable loss: −$5,862
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,407
• After-tax cash flow: $223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Hawaii floorplan home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance. The highest-ROI updates to increase its value are painting the exterior trim and cleaning the gutters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canyon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812810
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,177
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1912
• State rank: #78 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amarillo, TX
• County: Randall County · 137,351 people
• City population: 185,802
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,107
• Household income: $87,810
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 367.0

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.59%
• Current HPI: 162.5206
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.52%
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $272,100 Zillow