9803 Ambler Ln · Largo, MD 20774

$200,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1976 0.39 ac lot $81/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ONLINE AUCTION: This auction takes place on the Ashland Auction Group Website Bidding Platform. Bidding begins 5/28/2026 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 6/1/2026 @ 1:00 PM. List Price is Suggested Opening Bid. Deposit: $25,000. Single-family home located in the established Rambling Hills neighborhood of Upper Marlboro, MD. This detached residence offers approximately 2,480 square feet of living space on a ±0.39 acre lot, providing strong upside potential for investors, renovators, or owner-occupants seeking value-add opportunities in a stable suburban market. Constructed in 1976, the property features a traditional layout, believed to contain 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, multiple living areas, and a fireplace. The home sits on a generously sized lot, offering usable yard space and potential for outdoor improvements or expansion depending on buyer plans and zoning allowances.

Key facts

• Usable yard space
• Single family home
• Detached residence

Tags

• SINGLE FAMILY HOME
• RAMBLING HILLS NEIGHBORHOOD
• DETACHED RESIDENCE
• USABLE YARD SPACE
• OUTDOOR IMPROVEMENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $753 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.2% in Largo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#115 in MD, #4,768 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 323 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $133k; list at $200k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.14%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $481,150
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -58.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1308 Dakota Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,228 (-10%)	1mo	$571,900	$257	39
1019 Butterworth Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,164 (-13%)	13mo	$495,000	$229	39
1510 Sacramento St	0.70mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,236 (-10%)	8mo	$575,000	$257	36
1503 Sacramento St	0.65mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,348 (-5%)	23mo	$575,000	$245	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $20,609
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $100,999
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20774

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$596 /mo · $7,155/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $753

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,188

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
735 Parev Way Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	1640	$3,150	$1.92	44d	1	0.64mi
737 Parev Way Unit 1 Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	2112	$3,300	$1.56	11d	1	0.64mi
728 Parev Way Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	3.0	1652	$3,190	$1.93	44d	1	0.66mi
398 Harry S Truman Dr #270 Upper Marlboro, MD	4.0	3.5	2660	$2,900	$1.09	5d	1	0.69mi
9606 Westerdale Dr Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	4.0	2850	$3,400	$1.19	44d	1	0.73mi
695 Mount Lubentia Ct W Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,700	$1.41	44d	1	0.79mi
10108 Oklahoma Ct Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	2311	$3,300	$1.43	44d	1	0.81mi
817 Falcon Dr Upper Marlboro, MD	4.0	3.5	2962	$3,750	$1.27	44d	1	1.00mi
9553 Capital Ln Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	4.0	2326	$4,000	$1.72	5d	1	1.08mi
9804 Royal Commerce Pl Upper Marlboro, MD	3.0	2.5	2172	$2,795	$1.29	19d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-04-16
    listed $200,000 Active 888-char remark

    Show marketing remark (888 chars)

    ONLINE AUCTION: This auction takes place on the Ashland Auction Group Website Bidding Platform. Bidding begins 5/28/2026 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 6/1/2026 @ 1:00 PM. List Price is Suggested Opening Bid. Deposit: $25,000. Single-family home located in the established Rambling Hills neighborhood of Upper Marlboro, MD. This detached residence offers approximately 2,480 square feet of living space on a ±0.39 acre lot, providing strong upside potential for investors, renovators, or owner-occupants seeking value-add opportunities in a stable suburban market. Constructed in 1976, the property features a traditional layout, believed to contain 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, multiple living areas, and a fireplace. The home sits on a generously sized lot, offering usable yard space and potential for outdoor improvements or expansion depending on buyer plans and zoning allowances.

15. 1989-05-26
    soldstatus $133,000
16. 1976-05-07
    soldstatus $50,890

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,155 · $596/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,155 · $596/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$7,155
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,016
• − Management: −$3,016
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $6,489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,557
• After-tax cash flow: $7,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Largo

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #4768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Largo, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 51,816
• Household income: $128,259
• Rent vs Own: 24.4% rent · 75.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 773.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% Two or more races 5% White 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.06%
• Current HPI: 264.2372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.49%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+293.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1989-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records
• 1976-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $50,890 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,155 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.