50 Leo #50 · Antioch, CA 94519

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 62 Days on market

Built 1980 Good condition $68/sqft · 26% above area Est $67k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 50 Leo Lane in the desirable gated senior community of Vista Diablo Estates. This amazing mobile home has an enormous great room that can function as a living room, dining room, reading nook, puzzle space, etc. There is a built-in cabinet as well. The kitchen features laminate flooring, white appliances, white cabinetry and a large FIVE burner gas stove cooktop with modern tile backsplash, stainless steel double sink, and refrigerator. Bar area is located between the kitchen and the great room. This would make a great coffee bar! Spacious primary bedroom features a large wall of mirrored closet doors, carpet, and the ensuite bathroom is adorned with laminate flooring, dual sinks and vanities, seating area at the sink, soaking tub, above-toilet storage, and linen cabinet. Don't forget to check out the utility room that leads to the carport. This area is dual function with laundry room and built-in desk and cabinetry that makes for the perfect office space, craft area, little library. There is a deck off of the entry that is gated. There is plenty of room for sunroom furniture and sitting out getting fresh air. The leased land has a mature grapefruit tree, a patio area, a small rear yard for gardening, and a storage shed. There is ample parking for 2 cars in Tandem on the right side of the property. Enjoy a newer HVAC system and ceiling fans throughout the home. The community features a community room with kitchen, tables, pool tables, swimming pool, and hot tub. This community is centrally located near shopping, medical facilities, walking trails, and BART.

Key facts

• Enormous great room
• Built-in cabinet
• Bar area

Tags

• ENORMOUS GREAT ROOM
• BUILT-IN CABINET
• LARGE FIVE BURNER GAS STOVE
• MODERN TILE BACKSPLASH
• BAR AREA
• MIRRORED CLOSET DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mission Elementary (479 students, 74% FRL); Park Middle (996 students, 85% FRL); Antioch High (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,960 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 57% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 44 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.07%
• DSCR: 4.07
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,206
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 26.48%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
56 Creekside Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	12mo	$47,500	$38	88
26 Bradley Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+4%)	8mo	$88,000	$68	80
34 Mark Ln	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	8mo	$65,000	$56	78
144 Paulette Way #144	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	21mo	$100,000	$80	77
147 Paulette Way	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	9mo	$59,000	$51	75
86 Diana Way	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	11mo	$71,500	$62	75
3301 Buchanan Rd #75	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,211 (-3%)	17mo	$115,000	$95	71
3301 Buchanan Rd #11	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,084 (-13%)	6mo	$135,000	$125	63
66 Mark Ln #66	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	22mo	$55,000	$51	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $66,251
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.97×
• Total profit: $142,128
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94519

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,478 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $1,370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,429	-5% $1,399	+0% $1,370	+5% $1,341	+10% $1,311
Rent	-10% $1,174	-5% $1,272	+0% $1,370	+5% $1,468	+10% $1,566
Rate	-1.0pp $1,413	-0.5pp $1,391	base $1,370	+0.5pp $1,348	+1.0pp $1,325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3101 Buchanan Rd Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,295	$2.74	0d	4	0.16mi
2433 Sequoia Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1058	$2,795	$2.64	45d	1	0.16mi
2811 Cadiz Ln Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	715	$1,962	$2.74	23d	1	0.33mi
2811 Cadiz Ln Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	803	$2,023	$2.52	0d	1	0.33mi
3417 Fairview Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,710	$2.14	1d	2	0.36mi
2800 Gentrytown Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,845	$2.54	0d	8	0.38mi
3521 Fairview Dr Apt B Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	827	$2,000	$2.42	45d	1	0.45mi
3601 Fairview Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,642	$2.05	0d	1	0.47mi
2500 Florida Ln Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,395	$2.40	45d	1	0.78mi
2608 Nevada Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	1.5	1056	$2,450	$2.32	45d	1	0.80mi
2005 San Jose Dr Unit F130 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	830	$1,795	$2.16	7d	1	0.85mi
2005 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.5–2.0	806	$2,054	$2.55	1d	2	0.91mi
2005 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	830	$1,850	$2.23	46d	1	0.91mi
1902 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1152	$3,100	$2.69	45d	1	0.94mi
1312 Mission Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,975	$2.07	6d	1	0.98mi
2400 Horizon Ln #140 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	845	$1,850	$2.19	45d	1	0.99mi
2415 Horizon Ln #129 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$2,800	$2.97	45d	1	1.02mi
2301 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	716	$2,180	$3.04	0d	23	1.04mi
2725 Entrada Cir Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,000	$1.54	19d	1	1.07mi
2201 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,922	$1.89	0d	10	1.08mi
2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	777	$1,917	$2.47	4d	12	1.18mi
2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	755	$1,815	$2.40	11d	1	1.18mi
2221 Dogwood Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$2,995	$2.60	45d	1	1.22mi
2191 Lakeview Cir Pittsburg, CA	2.0	2.0	783	$2,500	$3.19	18d	1	1.26mi
2112 Banyan Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$2,900	$2.51	45d	1	1.28mi
1608 Sycamore Dr Apt 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	7d	1	1.31mi
2205 E Leland Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,294	$2.71	0d	18	1.32mi
3724 Gladstone Dr Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.0	1356	$3,195	$2.36	1d	1	1.34mi
2308 Lemontree Way #4 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,695	$1.83	45d	1	1.35mi
1508 Crestview Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1197	$2,949	$2.46	45d	1	1.36mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1035	$2,500	$2.42	45d	1	1.36mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 18 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1034	$2,800	$2.71	45d	1	1.36mi
2104 Lemontree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	822	$1,695	$2.06	45d	1	1.42mi
1209 Tulip Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,995	$2.23	45d	1	1.44mi
2205 Peppertree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$1,695	$1.88	16d	1	1.45mi
2106 Peppertree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,311	$2.56	7d	1	1.46mi
2106 Peppertree Way #3 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,311	$2.56	45d	1	1.46mi
1600 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,564	$3.06	0d	8	1.49mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $85,000 Active 1606-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1606 chars)

    Welcome to 50 Leo Lane in the desirable gated senior community of Vista Diablo Estates. This amazing mobile home has an enormous great room that can function as a living room, dining room, reading nook, puzzle space, etc. There is a built-in cabinet as well. The kitchen features laminate flooring, white appliances, white cabinetry and a large FIVE burner gas stove cooktop with modern tile backsplash, stainless steel double sink, and refrigerator. Bar area is located between the kitchen and the great room. This would make a great coffee bar! Spacious primary bedroom features a large wall of mirrored closet doors, carpet, and the ensuite bathroom is adorned with laminate flooring, dual sinks and vanities, seating area at the sink, soaking tub, above-toilet storage, and linen cabinet. Don't forget to check out the utility room that leads to the carport. This area is dual function with laundry room and built-in desk and cabinetry that makes for the perfect office space, craft area, little library. There is a deck off of the entry that is gated. There is plenty of room for sunroom furniture and sitting out getting fresh air. The leased land has a mature grapefruit tree, a patio area, a small rear yard for gardening, and a storage shed. There is ample parking for 2 cars in Tandem on the right side of the property. Enjoy a newer HVAC system and ceiling fans throughout the home. The community features a community room with kitchen, tables, pool tables, swimming pool, and hot tub. This community is centrally located near shopping, medical facilities, walking trails, and BART.

17. 2025-10-15
    listed $85,000 Active
18. 2025-07-18
    price $90,000
19. 2025-06-20
    listed $98,000 Active
20. 2023-09-21
    soldstatus $101,999 Sold
21. 2023-09-21
    soldstatus $101,999
22. 2023-08-16
    status Pending
23. 2023-08-06
    price $101,999
24. 2023-07-09
    listed $103,000 New
25. 2023-07-09
    listed $101,999
26. 2021-12-15
    soldstatus $77,000 Sold
27. 2021-12-12
    status Pending
28. 2021-11-10
    historical Contingent
29. 2021-11-06
    status Back On Market
30. 2021-10-19
    historical Contingent
31. 2021-10-04
    listed $79,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,378
• − Management: −$2,378
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $16,040
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,850
• After-tax cash flow: $12,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value. The kitchen and bathrooms could be modernized for a significant increase in value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and is easier to clean
• Both Install modern kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures with modern ones — Modernizes the bathroom and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile — Improves aesthetics and is easier to clean ↑
• Both Install modern kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures with modern ones — Modernizes the bathroom and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 19,058
• Household income: $122,418
• Rent vs Own: 29.1% rent · 70.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 465.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 20% Asian 14% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -654.14%
• Current HPI: 140.9683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+6.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $85,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-15 Listed $85,000 BAREIS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $90,000 BAREIS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $98,000 BAREIS
• 2023-09-21 Sold (MLS) $101,999 San Francisco MLS
• 2023-09-21 Sold (MLS) $101,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-08-16 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-08-06 Price Changed $101,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-07-09 Listed $101,999 San Francisco MLS
• 2023-07-09 Listed $103,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-12-15 Sold (MLS) $77,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-12-12 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-11-10 Contingent — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-11-06 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-10-19 Contingent — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-10-04 Listed $79,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR