245 Springville Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$895,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1965 0.72 ac lot Est $635k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a private . 72-acre flag lot, this cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath cottage offers peace, privacy, and endless potential in desirable Hampton Bays. Surrounded by mature trees and open space, the property provides a quiet retreat while still being close to beaches, marinas, shopping, and dining. The home features a bright living area, kitchen, comfortable bedrooms, and a spacious yard perfect for entertaining, gardening, expansion, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Whether you’re looking for a year-round residence, weekend getaway, or investment opportunity, this unique property offers the perfect blend of charm and privacy.

Key facts

• 0.72 acre lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; Updated / remodeled; Single-story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One-level home with rooms on a single floor
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heat; Ductless cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $895k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-779/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $884k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $752k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $752k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,523/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($882k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $752,298 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.89%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $634,848
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Springville Rd	0.37mi	2/1.0	774 (-5%)	14mo	$675,000	$872	63
119 Ponquogue Ave	0.35mi	2/1.0	824 (+1%)	23mo	$480,000	$583	63
32 Hampton Rd	0.52mi	2/1.0	900 (+10%)	8mo	$635,000	$706	52
48 Foster Ave	0.55mi	1/1.0 (-1)	855 (+5%)	14mo	$740,000	$865	50
39 Foster Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0	900 (+10%)	14mo	$700,000	$778	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-109,400
• Equity at exit: $133,447

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $80,385
• Equity at exit: $77,383

Cash invested: $250,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,523 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,693
• Tax from tax record: −$481 /mo · $5,775/yr
• Insurance: −$373
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,580
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,605

Max offer price $883,537

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $223,750
• Closing costs: $26,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	15d	1	0.28mi
25 Gardners Ln Unit A Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1000	$3,750	$3.75	24d	1	0.39mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	43d	1	0.55mi
68 Foster Ave #12 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.5	1125	$18,000	$16.00	43d	1	0.61mi
62 Canoe Place Rd #627 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	661	$4,500	$6.81	43d	1	1.44mi
49 Canoe Place Rd #212 Hampton Bays, NY	1.0	1.0	672	$3,700	$5.51	43d	1	1.48mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $895,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $895,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $895,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $895,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $895,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $895,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $895,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $895,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $895,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $895,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $895,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $895,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $895,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $895,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-23
    listed $895,000 Active
16. 2026-05-19
    historical $895,000
17. 2025-07-01
    historical $6,000
18. 2025-04-24
    listed $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,775 · $481/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,450 · $871/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,675/yr (+$390/mo · 81.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $90,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,134
• − Property taxes: −$5,775
• − Insurance: −$10,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,222
• − Management: −$7,222
• − Depreciation: −$26,036
• Taxable loss: −$16,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,867
• After-tax cash flow: $3,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+14816.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $895,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Coming Soon $895,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-01 Rental Removed $6,000 ONEKEY
• 2025-04-24 Listed for Rent $6,000 ONEKEY

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $5,775 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.