3524 E Avenue R Spc 312 · Palmdale, CA 93550

$173,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1999 Est $139k · 24% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready and beautifully remodeled, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers stylish updates throughout. Enjoy a fully renovated interior featuring brand-new kitchen cabinets, countertops, and appliances; new LVP flooring; updated fixtures and hardware; remodeled bathrooms; and fresh interior and exterior paint. The bright, open living spaces create a welcoming feel, while the covered carport adds everyday convenience. A great opportunity to own an updated home in a well-located Palmdale community near shopping, dining, and easy commuter access.

Key facts

• Covered carport
• New lvp flooring
• Remodeled bathrooms

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED INTERIOR
• BRAND-NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• COVERED CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: APN 8950-099-312
• HOA & community: Park amenities: recreation area, clubhouse/rec room, pool; All ages community

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable TV available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (1999); Located in Sagetree Village; Space number Spc 312; All ages community
• Construction: Composition shingle roof; Skirted
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Park recreation area; Clubhouse/rec room; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas Oven; Gas Range; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central air
• Interior features: Gas Oven; Microwave; Gas Range; Central air; Central gas heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $173k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $173k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Palmdale Elementary (suburban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,147 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 408 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,774/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 4384% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 2→5/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,405 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.01%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,104
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3524 E Avenue R Spc 312	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,104 (0%)	1mo	$173,000	$157	100
3524 E Avenue R #121	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+4%)	2mo	$169,000	$147	91
3524 E Avenue R #100	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,108 (+0%)	10mo	$140,000	$126	91
3524 E Avenue R Spc 114 Unit .	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+4%)	9mo	$115,000	$100	86
3524 E Avenue R Spc 243	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+13%)	0mo	$154,000	$123	78
3524 East Avenue R, #157	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+4%)	12mo	$97,000	$84	73
3255 E Ave R #177	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-8%)	8mo	$159,900	$157	69
3255 E Avenue R #151	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	9mo	$140,000	$117	63
3255 E Avenue R #27	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,020 (-8%)	12mo	$125,000	$123	57
3255 E Avenue R Spc 194 Unit .	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+13%)	8mo	$160,000	$128	57
3255 E Ave R #168	0.33mi	3/2.0	960 (-13%)	10mo	$145,000	$151	55
38015 E 30th St #27	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+4%)	5mo	$80,000	$69	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $43,055
• Equity at exit: $25,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $119,565
• Equity at exit: $14,958

Cash invested: $48,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93550

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,774 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$907
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $499/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $1,171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,292

Max offer price $173,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,269	-5% $1,220	+0% $1,171	+5% $1,122	+10% $1,073
Rent	-10% $952	-5% $1,061	+0% $1,171	+5% $1,280	+10% $1,390
Rate	-1.0pp $1,258	-0.5pp $1,215	base $1,171	+0.5pp $1,126	+1.0pp $1,080

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,250
• Closing costs: $5,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38300 30th St E Palmdale, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	796	$2,100	$2.64	0d	9	0.59mi
37347 Waterman Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1383	$3,350	$2.42	0d	1	0.66mi
3559 E Avenue R14 Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,895	$1.95	0d	1	0.75mi
4206 East Avenue Q-14 Unit Q14 Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1150	$2,850	$2.48	0d	1	0.75mi
38532 33rd St E Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1157	$2,646	$2.29	0d	1	0.84mi
38527 Pond Ave Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1300	$3,200	$2.46	0d	1	0.87mi
3138 E Avenue Q4 Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1318	$2,646	$2.01	0d	1	0.96mi
38638 31st St E Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1186	$2,700	$2.28	11d	1	1.07mi
38121 25th St E Palmdale, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$2,150	$2.56	0d	8	1.20mi
37526 Rose St Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1361	$3,150	$2.31	0d	1	1.25mi
38659 Angele Trumpet Ct Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1453	$2,950	$2.03	0d	1	1.28mi
2554 Olive Dr Palmdale, CA	2.0	2.0	831	$1,775	$2.13	7d	2	1.42mi
2554 Olive Dr Palmdale, CA	2.0	2.0	853	$1,800	$2.11	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-30
   price $173,000
2. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-03
   listed $169,900 Active
4. 2006-03-16
   historical
5. 2005-11-28
   listed $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $499 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,315 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$816/yr (+$68/mo · 163.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 2 d/yr ≥100°F today · 5 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,691
• − Property taxes: −$499
• − Insurance: −$865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,663
• − Management: −$2,663
• − Depreciation: −$5,033
• Taxable income: $11,878
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,851
• After-tax cash flow: $11,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmdale Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629580
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,652
• Composite: 25.34/100
• National rank: #12888
• State rank: #1147 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 80,645
• Household income: $62,078
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 4384.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Two or more races 15% Black 14% White 12% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 55% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.38%
• Current HPI: 440.8844
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.76%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+92.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $173,000 AVMLS
• 2026-04-30 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $169,900 AVMLS
• 2006-03-16 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2005-11-28 Listed $90,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $499 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.