152 Wellington · West Livingston, TX 77351

$96,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured · 68 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,596 sqft lot $91/sqft · 15% below area Est $113k · 15% under $23/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Like New home, built in 2022, three bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Kitchen and bathrooms have been upgraded with granite countertops, and vinyl flooring has been installed throughout. Front and back porches and fresh gravel on the driveway. Neighborhood offers access to nearby boat ramp 1/4 mile away. This one is ready to move in! Call for a showing today.

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Granite countertops
• Boat ramp access

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• VINYL FLOORING
• BOAT RAMP ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 2.4% in West Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,501 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timber Creek El (math 56% / reading 47%, grade C-, #808 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 522 students, 74% FRL); Livingston J H (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 893 students, 62% FRL); Livingston H S (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,128 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $670 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,086 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.79%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,380
• List price: $96,900
• Delta: -14.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
160 Champion Way	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-6%)	12mo	$115,900	$116	68
560 Meridian	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+14%)	8mo	$89,000	$73	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $11,392
• Equity at exit: $14,448

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $44,906
• Equity at exit: $8,378

Cash invested: $27,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1202
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,415 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$508
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$121 /mo · $1,454/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $877

Max offer price $96,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $492	-5% $458	+0% $425	+5% $391	+10% $358
Rent	-10% $313	-5% $369	+0% $425	+5% $481	+10% $537
Rate	-1.0pp $474	-0.5pp $449	base $425	+0.5pp $400	+1.0pp $374

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,225
• Closing costs: $2,907
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
446 Lexington Livingston, TX	4.0	2.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	5d	1	0.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $96,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $96,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $96,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $96,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $96,900 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $96,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $96,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $96,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $96,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $96,900 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $96,900 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $96,900 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $96,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $96,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $96,900 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Like New home, built in 2022, three bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Kitchen and bathrooms have been upgraded with granite countertops, and vinyl flooring has been installed throughout. Front and back porches and fresh gravel on the driveway. Neighborhood offers access to nearby boat ramp 1/4 mile away. This one is ready to move in! Call for a showing today.

16. 2026-04-14
    listed $99,900 Active 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Like New home, built in 2022, three bedrooms and two full bathrooms. Kitchen and bathrooms have been upgraded with granite countertops, and vinyl flooring has been installed throughout. Front and back porches and fresh gravel on the driveway. Neighborhood offers access to nearby boat ramp 1/4 mile away. This one is ready to move in! Call for a showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,428
• − Property taxes: −$1,454
• − Insurance: −$484
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,358
• − Management: −$1,358
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$2,819
• Taxable income: $3,798
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$911
• After-tax cash flow: $4,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2022-built manufactured home is in excellent condition with upgrades and new construction features, ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Add a small front porch — Could increase the home's charm and functionality, attracting more buyers or renters.
• Rental Install a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and could attract tech-savvy renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add a small front porch — Could increase the home's charm and functionality, attracting more buyers or renters. ↑
• Rental Install a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and could attract tech-savvy renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Livingston

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1501
• US rank: #25668

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Livingston, TX
• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $96,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $99,900 HARMLS