401-403 Tamarack Dr #4 · Ellicottville, NY 14731

$69,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 848 sqft · Condo · 224 Days on market

Built 2009 Excellent condition $82/sqft · 65% below area $232/mo HOA · 27% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Tamarack Club Unit 401-403 at Holiday Valley in Ellicottville, NY. This 4th-floor Type F lockout condo offers a spacious and versatile layout with a private balcony showcasing views of the Holiday Valley slope side and the 18th hole of the Holiday Valley Golf Course. The lockout design allows for flexible use and comfortably accommodates up to eight people. Located within the resort, this unit provides convenient access to skiing during the winter season and golf during warmer months, along with year round recreational opportunities. The condo features a well designed interior suited for both personal enjoyment and guest use, making it an ideal retreat in any season. Ownership includes access to resort amenities such as a heated indoor and outdoor pool, hot tubs, sauna, fitness center, private owners lounge, valet parking during ski season, and underground parking while staying overnight. Owners also receive discounts at Edna’s Restaurant at the Tamarack, as well as on skiing and golf at Holiday Valley.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Private balcony
• Sauna

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• HEATED INDOOR OUTDOOR POOL
• HOT TUBS
• SAUNA
• FITNESS CENTER
• PRIVATE OWNER LOCKER ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $70k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-522/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $64k (9.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 0.6% in Ellicottville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#422 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellicottville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #179 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,739
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -65.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-13,943
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-15,080
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14731

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$232
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $905

Max offer price $63,602

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5	-5% $-19	+0% $-44	+5% $-68	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-111	-5% $-77	+0% $-44	+5% $-10	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-26	base $-44	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $232 · $2,784/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 221 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 220 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 219 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $69,900 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,900 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,900 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,900 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $72,900 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $72,900 Active 207 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,900 Active 206 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,900 Active 205 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,900 Active 204 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $72,900 1035-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1035 chars)

    Welcome to Tamarack Club Unit 401-403 at Holiday Valley in Ellicottville, NY. This 4th-floor Type F lockout condo offers a spacious and versatile layout with a private balcony showcasing views of the Holiday Valley slope side and the 18th hole of the Holiday Valley Golf Course. The lockout design allows for flexible use and comfortably accommodates up to eight people. Located within the resort, this unit provides convenient access to skiing during the winter season and golf during warmer months, along with year round recreational opportunities. The condo features a well designed interior suited for both personal enjoyment and guest use, making it an ideal retreat in any season. Ownership includes access to resort amenities such as a heated indoor and outdoor pool, hot tubs, sauna, fitness center, private owners lounge, valet parking during ski season, and underground parking while staying overnight. Owners also receive discounts at Edna’s Restaurant at the Tamarack, as well as on skiing and golf at Holiday Valley.

17. 2025-11-08
    listed $77,900 Active 1035-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1035 chars)

    Welcome to Tamarack Club Unit 401-403 at Holiday Valley in Ellicottville, NY. This 4th-floor Type F lockout condo offers a spacious and versatile layout with a private balcony showcasing views of the Holiday Valley slope side and the 18th hole of the Holiday Valley Golf Course. The lockout design allows for flexible use and comfortably accommodates up to eight people. Located within the resort, this unit provides convenient access to skiing during the winter season and golf during warmer months, along with year round recreational opportunities. The condo features a well designed interior suited for both personal enjoyment and guest use, making it an ideal retreat in any season. Ownership includes access to resort amenities such as a heated indoor and outdoor pool, hot tubs, sauna, fitness center, private owners lounge, valet parking during ski season, and underground parking while staying overnight. Owners also receive discounts at Edna’s Restaurant at the Tamarack, as well as on skiing and golf at Holiday Valley.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − HOA: −$2,784
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable loss: −$1,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$375
• After-tax cash flow: $-147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This 4th-floor Type F lockout condo at Tamarack Club Unit 401-403 offers a spacious and versatile layout with a private balcony and scenic views, making it an ideal retreat in any season.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Private balcony with views of the Holiday Valley slope side and the 18th hole of the Holiday Valley Golf Course — The private balcony enhances the property's appeal for both resale and rental due to its scenic views
• Both Lockout design — The lockout design allows for flexible use and comfortably accommodates up to eight people, making it an ideal retreat for both personal enjoyment and guest use

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Private balcony with views of the Holiday Valley slope side and the 18th hole of the Holiday Valley Golf Course — The private balcony enhances the property's appeal for both resale and rental due to its scenic views ↑
• Both Lockout design — The lockout design allows for flexible use and comfortably accommodates up to eight people, making it an ideal retreat for both personal enjoyment and guest use ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellicottville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610530
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,528
• Composite: 55.33/100
• National rank: #1258
• State rank: #179 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ellicottville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,198

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.11%
• Current HPI: 280.7168
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $72,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-08 Listed $77,900 UNYREIS