4302 77th Pl NW · Lake Goodwin, WA 98271

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1954 6,709 sqft lot ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing view of Tulalip Bay, mountains, the sound, jetty, marine life and soaring eagles. Watch the sun rise while sipping a morning beverage on your private deck. Buyer must be a Tulalip member. Leased land. Cash only/no financing. Perfect home for a handy person, who could create instant equity with a little elbow grease, vision and knowhow. Sold as is, seller to complete no work orders. Tribal member will get new 50 year lease @ $400/month. Assignment of lease through tribe and approved by BOD. By appointment only. Subject to tenant rights. Closing end of June.

Key facts

• Private deck
• View of tulalip bay
• 6,709 sq ft lot

Tags

• VIEW OF TULALIP BAY
• PRIVATE DECK

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $70,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$485,056) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 34.9% vs local median 2.0% in Lake Goodwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#330 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Marysville School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #177 of 291 in WA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $70k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.14%
• DSCR: 5.54
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $485,056
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4416 83rd Pl NW	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,143 (-0%)	13mo	$484,900	$424	69
7513 Hermosa Beach Rd	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,240 (+8%)	11mo	$115,000	$93	68
4423 Marine Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,117 (-2%)	22mo	$700,000	$627	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $93,064
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.73×
• Total profit: $210,382
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98271

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,643 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $278/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $1,668

Break-even live

Break-even rent $531

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,708	-5% $1,688	+0% $1,668	+5% $1,648	+10% $1,629
Rent	-10% $1,460	-5% $1,564	+0% $1,668	+5% $1,773	+10% $1,877
Rate	-1.0pp $1,704	-0.5pp $1,686	base $1,668	+0.5pp $1,650	+1.0pp $1,632

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4126 Mission Beach Rd Tulalip, WA	3.0	2.0	1315	$2,395	$1.82	21d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $70,000 Active
3. 2011-02-26
   historical
4. 2011-02-25
   soldstatus $25,000 Sold
5. 2011-01-25
   status Pending
6. 2011-01-18
   status Pending Inspection
7. 2010-12-21
   price $25,000
8. 2010-09-15
   listed $35,000 Active
9. 2003-03-31
   soldstatus $85,000
10. 2003-03-31
    soldstatus $85,000
11. 2003-02-16
    listed $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $278 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $686 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$408/yr (+$34/mo · 146.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$278
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,537
• − Management: −$2,537
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $20,053
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,813
• After-tax cash flow: $15,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marysville School District
• NCES district ID: 5304860
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,461
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #7367
• State rank: #177 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lake Goodwin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #12350

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 30,838
• Household income: $95,654
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 929.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -666.16%
• Current HPI: 305.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.30%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-21.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $70,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-26 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-25 Sold (MLS) $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-25 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-18 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-21 Price Changed $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-15 Listed $35,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-31 Sold (MLS) $85,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-16 Listed $89,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-17.2%/yr

Latest (2014): $278 · -34.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.