198 Shepherd Ave · New York, NY 11208

$475,000

None bd · None ba · 1,350 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1901 2,500 sqft lot Est $717k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Great investment and good location. Occupied will not be delivered vacant. Buyers to due diligence. Non- paying tenants.

Key facts

• 2,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1901
• Listed 83 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Private carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; No listed utilities
• Home design: Duplex
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Natural gas heating; Other heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a multifamily listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $475k).
• Recommended offer: $446k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,176/mo this rent would consume 100% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 7574% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $133k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 39% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $446,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.83%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $716,850
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3344 Atlantic Ave	0.49mi	3/3.0	1,400 (+4%)	11mo	$675,000	$482	62
125 Crystal St	0.49mi	5/2.0	1,224 (-9%)	1mo	$650,000	$531	61
477 Ridgewood Ave	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,416 (+5%)	3mo	$473,000	$334	56
364 Barbey St	0.51mi	6/3.0	1,176 (-13%)	15mo	$920,000	$782	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $9,224
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $170,863
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11208

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,722/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,087
• Net cashflow: $1,090

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,796

Max offer price $475,000

Occupancy floor 74%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1.5	$5,176
Total (2 units)			$5,176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90-18 77th St Unit 2 Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	913	$3,295	$3.61	24d	1	1.07mi
88-18 77th St Unit 2 Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	913	$3,295	$3.61	24d	1	1.12mi
76-09 88th Ave Unit 1 Woodhaven, NY	3.0	2.0	960	$3,700	$3.85	19d	1	1.13mi
7511 61st St Glendale, NY	2.0	1.0	929	$2,800	$3.01	24d	1	1.40mi
13214 81st St Ozone Park, NY	3.0	1.0	1280	$4,100	$3.20	11d	1	1.43mi
88-23 85th St Unit 1L Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$3,300	$3.30	24d	1	1.44mi
132-13 81st St #1 Jamaica, NY	3.0	1.0	1280	$4,100	$3.20	2d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $475,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $475,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $475,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $475,000 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $475,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $475,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $475,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $475,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $475,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-03-27
    listed $475,000 Active
13. 2024-02-17
    historical
14. 2024-01-30
    price $630,000
15. 2024-01-03
    price $625,000
16. 2023-12-07
    listed $699,900 Active
17. 2019-07-10
    soldstatus $500,000
18. 2004-04-23
    soldstatus $328,000
19. 2004-01-29
    soldstatus $195,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,722 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,875 · $490/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,153/yr (+$179/mo · 57.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 39% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$3,722
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,969
• − Management: −$4,969
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable income: $5,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,356
• After-tax cash flow: $11,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Kings County · 2,614,986 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 105,428
• Household income: $62,077
• Rent vs Own: 75.1% rent · 24.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7574.0

Population outlook (Kings County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,847,441 people
• By 2030: 2,937,006 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 3,095,491 · +8.7%
• By 2050: 3,228,968 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 3,321,723 · +16.7%
• By 2100: 3,111,387 · +9.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 39% Asian 10% Two or more races 8% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 16%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 40% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 11% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kings

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.0) · D 72.0% · R 28.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 59.4pp · 2024: 44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.0 2020: D+54.8 2016: D+61.8 2012: D+63.9 2008: D+59.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -546.38%
• Current HPI: 376.1489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+143.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $475,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-30 Price Changed $630,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-03 Price Changed $625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-07 Listed $699,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $328,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,722 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.