S77W19405 Lakewood Dr · Muskego, WI 53150

$269,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,263 sqft · Condo · 17 Days on market

Built 2002 $275/mo HOA · 12% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home! This super-desirable end unit with fully open concept design and soaring cathedral ceilings is waiting for you! This upper unit features central kitchen space overlooking the dinette, living room and den/office area. Large Master BR with Master bath and walk-in closet, 2nd good-sized bedroom with ample closet space and a 2nd full bath. Wooded, private balcony with direct views of conservancy - have your cozy morning coffee or evening nightcap surrounded by the sights and sounds of nature! In-unit laundry and 1.5 car private attached garage complete this great listing. Walking distance to Little Muskego Lake, and close to all bike trails, entertainment, shopping, & freeway! Affordable Muskego living is just a call away! Don't wait!

Key facts

• $275 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2002

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-962/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.6% in Muskego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#228 in WI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Muskego-Norway School District (suburban): math 73% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #5 of 342 in WI (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mill Valley Elementary (math 89% / reading 77%, grade A+, #1 of 1,041 statewide, top 0%, 448 students, 13% FRL); Lake Denoon Middle (math 76% / reading 54%, grade A-, #8 of 383 statewide, top 2%, 724 students, 13% FRL); Muskego High (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C-, #28 of 483 statewide, top 6%, 1,686 students, 4% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,885 units permitted in Waukesha County in 2024 (696 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 35% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $194k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $238,305 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.27%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-48,743
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-48,627
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 53150

• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,383 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,919/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$275
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,484

Max offer price $255,744

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $-4	+0% $-80	+5% $-157	+10% $-233
Rent	-10% $-268	-5% $-174	+0% $-80	+5% $14	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $-11	base $-80	+0.5pp $-150	+1.0pp $-221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
W171S7452 Lannon Dr Muskego, WI	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1340	$2,500	$1.87	3d	5	1.41mi
w171s7404 Lannon Dr Muskego, WI	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1277	$2,230	$1.75	45d	2	1.42mi
W171S7390 Lannon Dr Muskego, WI	2.0	2.5	1440	$2,430	$1.69	3d	2	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $275 · $3,300/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $269,900 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Coming Soon 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    listed $269,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,919 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,456 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,537/yr (+$128/mo · 80.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$1,919
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,288
• − Management: −$2,288
• − HOA: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$5,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,324
• After-tax cash flow: $363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Muskego-Norway School District
• NCES district ID: 5510170
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $83,673
• Composite: 60.16/100
• National rank: #866
• State rank: #5 of 342 in WI

Livability — Muskego

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #6048

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Muskego, WI
• City population: 26,142
• Population (ZIP): 26,142

Population outlook (Waukesha County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 412,798 people
• By 2030: 418,092 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 420,872 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 413,862 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 402,782 · -2.4%
• By 2100: 365,796 · -11.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waukesha

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.9pp toward D · 2008: -25.7pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+34.8 2008: R+25.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.25%
• Current HPI: 248.5711
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

+64.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Coming Soon $269,900 METROMLS
• 2021-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $194,500 Public Records
• 2021-11-05 Sold (MLS) $194,500 METROMLS
• 2021-09-13 Contingent — METROMLS
• 2021-09-10 Relisted — METROMLS
• 2021-09-07 Contingent — METROMLS
• 2021-09-01 Listed $200,000 METROMLS
• 2016-07-14 Listing Removed — METROMLS
• 2016-06-20 Price Changed $144,900 METROMLS
• 2016-06-03 Listed $149,000 METROMLS
• 2014-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $136,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-30 Sold (MLS) $136,000 METROMLS
• 2014-09-18 Pending — METROMLS
• 2014-09-05 Listed $142,900 METROMLS
• 2006-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $164,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,919 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.