1115 W 3rd St · Portales, NM 88130

$98,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,586 sqft · Other · 270 Days on market

5,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home/investment property. Remodeled home located near ENMU. This home has a huge living room, fenced in back yard, office, metal roof, tile, and paint throughout.

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Split floor plan
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE PANTRY
• DETACHED GARAGE
• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY
• FENCED BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#63 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Portales Municipal Schools (town): math 17% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #15 of 29 in NM (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 31 units permitted in Roosevelt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roosevelt County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.44%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,458
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $26,587
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88130

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,222 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $963/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $996

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 North Avenue B Portales, NM	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	44d	1	0.58mi
506 E 1st St Portales, NM	3.0	1.0	1100	$675	$0.61	44d	1	0.86mi
1700 South Avenue B Unit B Portales, NM	3.0	2.0	1706	$1,800	$1.06	44d	1	0.93mi
1802 South Avenue A Unit A Portales, NM	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,150	$0.73	44d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-12
   price $98,000
3. 2025-07-17
   listed $109,000 Active
4. 2021-06-21
   soldstatus
5. 2021-06-18
   soldstatus
6. 2021-03-29
   listed $109,000
7. 2016-08-19
   soldstatus
8. 2016-08-18
   soldstatus 176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (176 chars)

   Great starter home/investment property. Remodeled home located near ENMU. This home has a huge living room, fenced in back yard, office, metal roof, tile, and paint throughout.

9. 2015-02-18
   listed $79,000 176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (176 chars)

   Great starter home/investment property. Remodeled home located near ENMU. This home has a huge living room, fenced in back yard, office, metal roof, tile, and paint throughout.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $963 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$963
• − Insurance: −$2,314
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,173
• − Management: −$1,173
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $696
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$167
• After-tax cash flow: $1,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Portales Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502100
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 20.00%
• Median HH income: $36,151
• Composite: 30.52/100
• National rank: #6209
• State rank: #15 of 29 in NM

Livability — Portales

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #13640

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Portales, NM
• County: Roosevelt County · 17,842 people
• City population: 17,842
• Metro: Portales, NM
• Population (ZIP): 17,842
• Household income: $52,434
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Roosevelt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,821 people
• By 2030: 15,818 · -6.0%
• By 2040: 13,766 · -18.2%
• By 2050: 12,152 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 9,601 · -42.9%
• By 2100: 8,241 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Roosevelt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.4% · R 70.6% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: -29.9pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+42.9 2016: R+41.3 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+29.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.72%
• Current HPI: 108.0555
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Metro: Portales, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+24.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Pending — NMMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $98,000 NMMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $109,000 NMMLS
• 2021-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-18 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2021-03-29 Listed $109,000 NMMLS
• 2016-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-08-18 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2015-02-18 Listed $79,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $963 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.