2709 Flint Hills Dr · Burlington, IA 52601

$34,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1941 0.26 ac lot $43/sqft · 65% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice ranch style home in a good neighborhood. Home is being sold as -is with all contents included. Features include 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, and 1 car carport and a large yard.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1941

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($856 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 6.0% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#287 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Burlington Community School District (town): math 42% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #286 of 289 in IA (top 99%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 53 units permitted in Des Moines County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Des Moines County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $32,806 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.86%
• DSCR: 3.17
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,098
• List price: $34,900
• Delta: -82.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2310 Flint Hills Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-12%)	4mo	$95,000	$132	63
803 Melrose Ct	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-2%)	8mo	$47,500	$59	59
505 S Gertrude St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	824 (+1%)	2mo	$67,000	$81	58
2201 Burlington Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-12%)	3mo	$112,000	$156	53
111 Pierson Ct	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (+12%)	4mo	$52,000	$57	50
908 Shield St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	868 (+6%)	3mo	$79,900	$92	48
830 Emmett St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	825 (+1%)	15mo	$108,000	$131	48
227 Grant St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	878 (+8%)	4mo	$20,000	$23	46
921 Shields St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-6%)	15mo	$105,000	$137	39
2503 Clearview Ave	0.54mi	2/1.5 (-1)	938 (+15%)	6mo	$155,000	$165	38
524 N Plane St	0.67mi	3/1.0	931 (+14%)	10mo	$129,000	$139	36
318 S Starr Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	745 (-9%)	16mo	$65,000	$87	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $19,720
• Equity at exit: $5,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $49,946
• Equity at exit: $3,018

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52601

• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $970/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $352

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2645 Newbury Cir Burlington, IA	2.0	1.0	825	$825	$1.00	43d	3	0.15mi
2911 Market St Unit 2909 Burlington, IA	2.0	1.0	720	$625	$0.87	43d	1	0.16mi
4051 West Ave Burlington, IA	1.0–2.0	1.0	723	$1,060	$1.47	43d	2	1.32mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $34,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,900 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,900 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,900 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,900 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $34,900 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $34,900 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,500 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $42,500 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,500 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,500 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $42,500 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,500 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $42,500 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $42,500 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $42,500 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    price $42,500 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Nice ranch style home in a good neighborhood. Home is being sold as -is with all contents included. Features include 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, and 1 car carport and a large yard.

18. 2026-03-29
    listed $49,900 Active 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Nice ranch style home in a good neighborhood. Home is being sold as -is with all contents included. Features include 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, and 1 car carport and a large yard.

19. 2016-04-29
    soldstatus $28,500
20. 2016-04-27
    soldstatus $24,000 50-char remark

    Show marketing remark (50 chars)

    2 bedroom home with a little over 850 square feet.

21. 2016-03-25
    listed $34,000 50-char remark

    Show marketing remark (50 chars)

    2 bedroom home with a little over 850 square feet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$970
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$822
• − Management: −$822
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $4,514
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,083
• After-tax cash flow: $3,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burlington Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1905790
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,833
• Composite: 40.3/100
• National rank: #3753
• State rank: #286 of 289 in IA

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #5540

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, IA
• County: Des Moines County · 27,341 people
• City population: 27,341
• Metro: Burlington, IA-IL
• Population (ZIP): 27,341
• Household income: $60,983
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 963.0

Population outlook (Des Moines County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,735 people
• By 2030: 39,257 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 38,090 · -4.1%
• By 2050: 37,156 · -6.5%
• By 2075: 36,905 · -7.1%
• By 2100: 37,222 · -6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Des Moines

• 2024 margin: R (+15.1) · D 41.8% · R 56.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.1pp toward R · 2008: 23.0pp · 2024: -15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.1 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+7.0 2012: D+18.5 2008: D+23.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.48%
• Current HPI: 149.7662
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Burlington, IA-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $42,500 Muscatine BOR
• 2026-03-29 Listed $49,900 Muscatine BOR
• 2016-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records
• 2016-04-27 Sold (MLS) $24,000 IAR
• 2016-03-25 Listed $34,000 IAR

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $970 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.