103 Birdie · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$490,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1994 0.28 ac lot $201/sqft · 18% below area Est $594k · 18% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, this well-maintained home offers comfortable living with a functional layout and quality finishes throughout. The property features an open living area, generous natural light, and a kitchen designed for both daily living and entertaining. The primary suite provides privacy and ample space, while additional bedrooms are well-sized for guests or a home office. Enjoy outdoor living with a manageable yard and easy access to Horseshoe Bay Resort amenities, golf courses, Lake LBJ, dining, and shopping. Ideal for full-time residence or a lock-and-leave lifestyle.

Key facts

• Manageable yard
• Open living area
• 0.28 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AREA
• MANAGEABLE YARD
• EASY ACCESS TO AMENITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (2 spaces); Total parking for 4 vehicles; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity available; Fiber optic available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Tile roof; Slab foundation; Construction details: see remarks; Year built source: public records
• Exterior features: Exterior details: see remarks; Has a view; North-facing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Built-in gas range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Accessible doors; Window features: see remarks; Additional interior details: see remarks
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $490k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-832 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (30.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (35.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1227 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($475k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,245 (35.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.28%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $594,410
• List price: $490,000
• Delta: -17.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 Sombrero	0.21mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,514 (+3%)	2mo	$575,000	$229	73
124 Tee Off	0.39mi	3/3.5	2,374 (-3%)	3mo	$500,000	$211	72
109 Lost Spur	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,390 (-2%)	2mo	$615,000	$257	64
107 Boot Hl	0.43mi	3/2.0	2,522 (+3%)	5mo	$574,988	$228	62
108 Nimrod	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,324 (-5%)	1mo	$1,300,000	$559	61
308 Sombrero Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	2,738 (+12%)	8mo	$690,000	$252	54
1306 Far West Rd	0.67mi	3/3.5	2,550 (+4%)	9mo	$585,000	$229	52
100 Boot Hl	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,631 (+8%)	10mo	$1,725,000	$656	50
201 Cross Bow	0.45mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,727 (+12%)	7mo	$2,225,000	$816	47
405 Rio	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,685 (+10%)	10mo	$599,000	$223	36
450 Fire Dance	0.65mi	3/3.0	2,128 (-13%)	15mo	$595,000	$280	31
500 Rio	0.59mi	3/2.0	2,125 (-13%)	15mo	$675,000	$318	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-45,153
• Equity at exit: $165,885

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-17,156
• Equity at exit: $219,374

Cash invested: $137,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1227
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,570
• Tax from tax record: −$541 /mo · $6,493/yr
• Insurance: −$204
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $-832

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,196

Max offer price $342,969

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-555	-5% $-694	+0% $-832	+5% $-971	+10% $-1,110
Rent	-10% $-1,081	-5% $-956	+0% $-832	+5% $-708	+10% $-584
Rate	-1.0pp $-586	-0.5pp $-708	base $-832	+0.5pp $-959	+1.0pp $-1,088

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $122,500
• Closing costs: $14,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
717 Indian Paint Blvd Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.5	2742	$3,650	$1.33	24d	1	0.25mi
106 Cross Bow Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1764	$2,900	$1.64	45d	1	0.35mi
820 Broken Arrow Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.5	3328	$4,590	$1.38	45d	1	0.39mi
410 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1964	$2,450	$1.25	45d	1	0.65mi
305 Fire Dance Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	2416	$3,800	$1.57	45d	1	0.67mi
3201 Oak Ridge Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1655	$3,775	$2.28	5d	1	0.73mi
203 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,595	$1.42	24d	1	0.81mi
512 Side Saddle Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,700	$1.46	45d	1	0.88mi
402 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	2038	$2,200	$1.08	45d	1	0.95mi
603 Sunray Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,100	$1.29	24d	1	1.00mi
306 Out Yonder #154 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1900	$1,550	$0.82	24d	1	1.05mi
202 Lighthouse Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1993	$3,000	$1.51	45d	1	1.07mi
403 Island Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1875	$4,300	$2.29	45d	1	1.22mi
1406 Prospect Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,700	$1.35	5d	1	1.33mi
1314 Clayton Nolen Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1885	$2,850	$1.51	24d	1	1.34mi
533 Lighthouse Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	2500	$5,000	$2.00	13d	1	1.37mi
415 Horseshoe Bay North Blvd Unit 1 Horseshoe Bay, TX	4.0	4.5	2375	$3,500	$1.47	45d	1	1.42mi
111 Lachite Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.5	2811	$3,800	$1.35	5d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $490,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $490,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $490,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $490,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $490,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $490,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $490,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $490,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $490,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $490,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $490,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $490,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $490,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $490,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $490,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $490,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $510,000 602-char remark
18. 2026-04-27
    listed $525,000 Active 602-char remark
19. 2025-11-26
    soldstatus
20. 2008-06-18
    soldstatus
21. 2002-08-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,493 · $541/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,967 · $747/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,474/yr (+$206/mo · 38.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,448
• − Property taxes: −$6,493
• − Insurance: −$2,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,017
• − Management: −$3,017
• − Depreciation: −$14,255
• Taxable loss: −$18,969
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,553
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $490,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $510,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $525,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-11-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-06-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,493 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.