20038 White Dove Trl · Houston, TX 77532

$218,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,979 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $125/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Whitetail Floor Plan - The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Southern Property Management Grou; Association fee $125 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Built in 2026; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Kitchen and dining combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Loft; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $218,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $279,039.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $218,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,039
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20038 White Dove Trl	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,979 (0%)	0mo	$218,990	$111	100
20027 White Dove Trl	0.02mi	4/2.5	1,979 (0%)	2mo	$283,990	$144	96
20018 White Dove Trl	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,979 (0%)	2mo	$279,990	$141	95
1719 Green Warbler Ln	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,968 (-1%)	0mo	$269,190	$137	79
1735 Green Warbler Ln	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,042 (+3%)	0mo	$273,190	$134	76
2159 Silver Moon Trl	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,074 (+5%)	3mo	$510,000	$246	74
1726 Serenity Moon Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5	1,979 (0%)	6mo	$267,790	$135	72
2002 Indian Shores Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,975 (-0%)	1mo	$350,000	$177	70
1730 Green Warbler Ln	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,107 (+6%)	2mo	$274,990	$131	68
1703 Indian Shores Rd	0.48mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,943 (-2%)	0mo	$367,500	$189	65
1406 Indian Shores Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,005 (+1%)	3mo	$200,000	$100	56
1767 Serenity Moon Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,689 (-15%)	6mo	$259,990	$154	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-66,814
• Equity at exit: $41,606

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-94,749
• Equity at exit: $24,126

Cash invested: $78,131 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,186/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,599

Max offer price $237,368

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,760
• Closing costs: $8,371
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	12d	1	0.03mi
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,875	$1.32	12d	1	0.27mi
1823 Black Bear Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.5	2564	$2,395	$0.93	43d	1	1.23mi
18707 Antler Trails Ct Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2547	$2,361	$0.93	24d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $218,990 Active
3. 2026-04-30
   historical
4. 2026-04-28
   price $218,990
5. 2026-04-20
   price $221,140
6. 2026-04-15
   listed $224,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,816
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,631
• − Property taxes: −$4,186
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,145
• − Management: −$2,145
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,117
• Taxable loss: −$8,303
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,993
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,463/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It has the potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers.
• Rental Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can make the bathrooms more appealing to renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can enhance the overall aesthetic and functionality of the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can make the bathrooms more appealing to renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can enhance the overall aesthetic and functionality of the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $218,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $218,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $221,140 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $224,990 HARMLS