2957 Vineyards Pkwy Unit 31-2 · Branson, MO 65616

$184,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,147 sqft · Condo · 256 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $160/sqft · 20% below area Est $231k · 20% under $265/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to Branson in this cozy and convenient 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom ground-floor condo! With no steps to worry about, getting in and out is a breeze--perfect for families, groups, or anyone who loves easy access. Inside, you'll find a bright and welcoming space designed for relaxation. The open living area flows into a fully equipped kitchen, complete with a charming coffee bar so you can start your mornings just right. A washer and dryer are included, making it easy to keep clothes fresh during your stay. With three comfortable bedrooms and two full bathrooms, there's plenty of room for everyone to spread out. After a fun day exploring Branson's live shows, dining, shopping, and outdoor adventures, come back to unwind in your private retreat. Whether you're planning a family getaway, friends' trip, or just want a comfortable home base while you enjoy everything Branson has to offer, this condo is the perfect spot.

Key facts

• Ground-floor condo
• $265 HOA
• Built 2007

Tags

• GROUND-FLOOR CONDO
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $184k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.8% in Branson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 503 students, 65% FRL); Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1267 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,858
• List price: $184,000
• Delta: -20.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2955 Vineyard Pkwy #3	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,161 (+1%)	0mo	$175,000	$151	97
2955 Vineyards Pkwy #4	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,161 (+1%)	0mo	$175,000	$151	97
3004 North Vineyards Terrace Ter Unit 36-2	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	2mo	$247,500	$216	97
2954 Vineyards Pkwy Unit 22-5	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	3mo	$159,500	$139	95
2954 Vineyards Pkwy Unit 22-6	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	3mo	$159,500	$139	95
3107 S Vineyards Ter #4	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	0mo	$267,900	$234	94
2910 Vineyard Pkwy #2	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	4mo	$167,500	$146	92
310 Sunset Cv #333	1.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,214 (+6%)	3mo	$295,000	$243	48
800 Compton Ridge Rd	1.37mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+12%)	3mo	$164,900	$128	42
80 Celebration Cove Cir	1.18mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+23%)	1mo	$359,500	$255	39
80 Celebration Cove Cir #354	1.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (+23%)	1mo	$389,000	$275	34
200 Majestic Dr #219	1.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (+24%)	2mo	$380,000	$268	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-35,155
• Equity at exit: $27,435

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-37,477
• Equity at exit: $15,909

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $189,000 ($165/sqft)
• Median days on market: 354 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +22.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1267
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$230 /mo · $2,760/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$265
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,945

Max offer price $171,857

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $43	-5% $-20	+0% $-84	+5% $-147	+10% $-211
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-157	+0% $-84	+5% $-11	+10% $61
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-37	base $-84	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2905 Vineyards Pkwy #5 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	93d	1	0.05mi
2907 Vineyards Pkwy #2 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	93d	1	0.05mi
3515 Arlene St Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	880	$1,025	$1.16	93d	1	0.66mi
513 Lakewood Rd Branson, MO	3.0	3.0	1487	$1,750	$1.18	93d	1	1.10mi
325 Majestic Dr Branson, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	941	$1,650	$1.75	93d	2	1.35mi

HOA detail $265/mo · $3,180/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $184,000 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $184,000 Active 255 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $184,000 Active 254 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $184,000 Active 253 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $184,000 Active 252 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $184,000 Active 251 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $184,000 Active 248 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $184,000 Active 247 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $184,000 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $184,000 Active 244 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $184,000 Active 242 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $184,000 Active 241 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $184,000 Active 240 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $184,000 Active 239 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $184,000 Active 238 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $184,000 Active 235 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $184,000 Active 233 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $184,000 Active 232 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $184,000 Active 231 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $184,000 Active 230 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $184,000 Active 229 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $184,000 Active 228 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $184,000 Active 227 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $184,000 Active 226 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $184,000 Active 225 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $184,000 Active 224 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $184,000 Active 223 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $184,000 Active 222 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $184,000 Active 221 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $184,000 Active 220 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $184,000 Active 219 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $184,000 Active 218 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $184,000 Active 217 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $184,000 Active 216 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $184,000 Active 215 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $184,000 Active 214 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $184,000 Active 212 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $184,000 Active 209 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $184,000 Active 208 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $184,000 Active 206 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $184,000 Active 205 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $184,000 Active 204 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $184,000 Active 203 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $184,000 Active 202 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $184,000 Active 200 DOM
46. 2026-06-12
    days on market $184,000 Active 199 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $184,000 Active 196 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $184,000 Active 195 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,000 Active 194 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,000 Active 190 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$2,760
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,765
• − Management: −$1,765
• − HOA: −$3,180
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable loss: −$3,984
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$956
• After-tax cash flow: $-51/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,735–$17,205 screening

This cozy and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo is ready for immediate occupancy and offers a great return on investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Replace the ceiling fan with a more energy-efficient model — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cedar Ridge Elementary D MO #284/1,115 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Branson Jr. High C- MO #81/391 Nat'l #3,846/14,009 High Branson High D MO #145/521 Nat'l #6,078/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Branson

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #2940

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Branson, MO
• County: Taney County · 59,017 people
• City population: 28,460
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $184,000 SOMO
• 2025-11-25 Listed $189,000 SOMO