2957 Vineyards Pkwy Unit 31-2 · Branson, MO 65616

$184,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,147 sqft · Condo · 7 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $160/sqft · 18% below area Est $223k · 18% under $265/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully furnished, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom walk-in condo, offering the perfect combination of comfort, convenience, and investment potential! With easy access and no stairs to navigate, this inviting property is ideal for a vacation getaway, nightly rental investment, or even a full-time residence. The seller has recently installed a brand-new HVAC system, providing added comfort, energy efficiency, and peace of mind for the next owner. Being offered fully furnished, this condo is ready for you or your guests to start enjoying right away!

Key facts

• Table rock lake
• Silver dollar city
• Fully furnished

Tags

• BRAND-NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• FULLY FURNISHED
• TABLE ROCK LAKE
• SILVER DOLLAR CITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $184k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.9% in Branson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Primary (345 students, 72% FRL); Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1613 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 35d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,378 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,378
• List price: $184,000
• Delta: -17.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2955 Vineyard Pkwy #3	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,161 (+1%)	3mo	$175,000	$151	95
2955 Vineyards Pkwy #4	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,161 (+1%)	3mo	$175,000	$151	95
3004 North Vineyards Terrace Ter Unit 36-2	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	4mo	$247,500	$216	94
3014 North Vineyards Terrace Ter #1	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,173 (+2%)	1mo	$225,500	$192	92
3107 S Vineyards Ter #4	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,147 (0%)	3mo	$267,900	$234	92
3008 N Vineyards Ter #2	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,179 (+3%)	2mo	$269,000	$228	91
3013 N Vineyards Terrace Ter #2	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,173 (+2%)	3mo	$225,500	$192	89
310 Sunset Cv #333	1.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,214 (+6%)	6mo	$295,000	$243	45
800 Compton Ridge Rd	1.37mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+12%)	6mo	$164,900	$128	40
80 Celebration Cove Cir	1.18mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+23%)	4mo	$359,500	$255	37
80 Celebration Cove Cir #354	1.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (+23%)	4mo	$389,000	$275	32
200 Majestic Dr #219	1.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,420 (+24%)	5mo	$380,000	$268	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-42,835
• Equity at exit: $27,435

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-54,018
• Equity at exit: $15,909

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $189,000 ($165/sqft)
• Median days on market: 354 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +18.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1613
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,686 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$230 /mo · $2,760/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$265
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,945

Max offer price $154,378

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-78	-5% $-141	+0% $-205	+5% $-268	+10% $-332
Rent	-10% $-338	-5% $-271	+0% $-205	+5% $-138	+10% $-72
Rate	-1.0pp $-112	-0.5pp $-158	base $-205	+0.5pp $-252	+1.0pp $-301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2905 Vineyards Pkwy #5 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	184d	1	0.05mi
2907 Vineyards Pkwy #2 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1147	$1,850	$1.61	184d	1	0.05mi
2913 Vineyards Pkwy #2 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	0d	1	0.15mi
3515 Arlene St Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	880	$1,025	$1.16	184d	1	0.66mi
3515 Arlene St Apt F205 Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	880	$1,025	$1.16	10d	1	0.67mi
513 Lakewood Rd Branson, MO	3.0	3.0	1487	$1,750	$1.18	184d	1	1.10mi
750 Ford St Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,750	$1.31	34d	1	1.19mi
141 Settlers Ln Unit B Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	10d	1	1.30mi
325 Majestic Dr Unit 333 Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	959	$1,450	$1.51	0d	1	1.35mi
325 Majestic Dr #226 Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,525	$1.05	47d	1	1.35mi
325 Majestic Dr Unit 340 Branson, MO	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,395	$1.19	16d	1	1.35mi
325 Majestic Dr Unit 334 Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	959	$1,195	$1.25	18d	1	1.35mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee includes insurance

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectorsFire sprinkler system
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Condominium

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven, dishwasher, refrigerator, microwave
• Flooring: Carpet, laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internetSoaking tub
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryerLaundry on the main levelElectric water heater

HOA detail $265/mo · $3,180/yr condo

• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $184,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $184,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $184,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $184,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $184,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-11-01
   days on marketlisting id $184,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-08-30
   days on market $184,000 Active 278 DOM
8. 2026-08-29
   days on market $184,000 Active 277 DOM
9. 2026-08-28
   days on market $184,000 Active 276 DOM
10. 2026-08-27
    days on market $184,000 Active 275 DOM
11. 2026-08-25
    days on market $184,000 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-08-24
    days on market $184,000 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-08-23
    days on market $184,000 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-08-22
    days on market $184,000 Active 270 DOM
15. 2026-08-21
    days on market $184,000 Active 269 DOM
16. 2026-08-20
    days on market $184,000 Active 268 DOM
17. 2026-08-19
    days on market $184,000 Active 267 DOM
18. 2026-08-18
    days on market $184,000 Active 266 DOM
19. 2026-08-17
    days on market $184,000 Active 265 DOM
20. 2026-08-16
    days on market $184,000 Active 264 DOM
21. 2026-08-15
    days on market $184,000 Active 263 DOM
22. 2026-08-15
    days on market $184,000 Active 262 DOM
23. 2026-08-13
    days on market $184,000 Active 261 DOM
24. 2026-08-12
    days on market $184,000 Active 260 DOM
25. 2026-08-11
    days on market $184,000 Active 259 DOM
26. 2026-08-10
    days on market $184,000 Active 258 DOM
27. 2026-08-09
    days on market $184,000 Active 257 DOM
28. 2026-08-08
    days on market $184,000 Active 256 DOM
29. 2026-08-07
    days on market $184,000 Active 255 DOM
30. 2026-08-06
    days on market $184,000 Active 254 DOM
31. 2026-08-05
    days on market $184,000 Active 253 DOM
32. 2026-08-04
    days on market $184,000 Active 252 DOM
33. 2026-08-03
    days on market $184,000 Active 251 DOM
34. 2026-07-31
    days on market $184,000 Active 248 DOM
35. 2026-07-30
    days on market $184,000 Active 247 DOM
36. 2026-07-29
    days on market $184,000 Active 246 DOM
37. 2026-07-27
    days on market $184,000 Active 244 DOM
38. 2026-07-25
    days on market $184,000 Active 242 DOM
39. 2026-07-24
    days on market $184,000 Active 241 DOM
40. 2026-07-23
    days on market $184,000 Active 240 DOM
41. 2026-07-22
    days on market $184,000 Active 239 DOM
42. 2026-07-21
    days on market $184,000 Active 238 DOM
43. 2026-07-18
    days on market $184,000 Active 235 DOM
44. 2026-07-16
    days on market $184,000 Active 233 DOM
45. 2026-07-15
    days on market $184,000 Active 232 DOM
46. 2026-07-14
    days on market $184,000 Active 231 DOM
47. 2026-07-13
    days on market $184,000 Active 230 DOM
48. 2026-07-12
    days on market $184,000 Active 229 DOM
49. 2026-07-11
    days on market $184,000 Active 228 DOM
50. 2026-07-11
    days on market $184,000 Active 227 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$2,760
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − HOA: −$3,180
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable loss: −$5,526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,326
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,735–$17,205 screening

This cozy and well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom condo is ready for immediate occupancy and offers a great return on investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Replace the ceiling fan with a more energy-efficient model — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cedar Ridge Primary Middle Branson Jr. High C- MO #81/391 Nat'l #3,846/14,009 High Branson High D MO #145/521 Nat'l #6,078/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Branson

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #2940

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Branson, MO
• County: Taney County · 59,017 people
• City population: 28,460
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee includes insurance

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectorsFire sprinkler system
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Condominium

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven, dishwasher, refrigerator, microwave
• Flooring: Carpet, laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internetSoaking tub
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryerLaundry on the main levelElectric water heater

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-11-01 Listed $184,000 SOMO
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $184,000 SOMO
• 2025-11-25 Listed $189,000 SOMO