18572 W Cottontail Ln · Surprise, AZ 85361

$429,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 2023 7,560 sqft lot $206/sqft · 13% below area Est $493k · 13% under $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Private next-gen suite makes this home truly stand out. Complete with its own bedroom, full bath, and living area with plumbing for a future wet bar, it is ideal for multigenerational living or long-term guests while still connected to the main home. Inside, enjoy an open great room with soaring ceilings and tile wood-look flooring. The bright kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, an oversized island, and walk in pantry. Spacious primary suite with dual sinks and walk in closet. 3 car garage offers room for vehicles, storage, or hobbies. Covered patio and generous backyard ready for gatherings.

Key facts

• 7,560 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (42.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (51.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (51.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingswood Elementary School (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 791 students, 59% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,354 (51.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.38%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 17.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $492,698
• List price: $429,900
• Delta: -12.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25553 N 183rd Ln	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,052 (-2%)	0mo	$429,990	$210	78
25536 N 183rd Ln	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,052 (-2%)	6mo	$425,990	$208	75
25524 N 183rd Ln	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,242 (+7%)	8mo	$448,990	$200	71
25551 N 183rd Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,052 (-2%)	7mo	$429,990	$210	71
18625 W Cottontail Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (-10%)	5mo	$503,000	$269	67
18359 W Smoketree Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,242 (+7%)	14mo	$439,990	$196	63
25512 N 183rd Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,836 (-12%)	13mo	$402,990	$219	55
18353 W Gray Fox Trl	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,836 (-12%)	9mo	$401,000	$218	55
18356 W Gray Fox Trl	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,836 (-12%)	11mo	$399,990	$218	54
25491 N 183rd Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,836 (-12%)	9mo	$410,000	$223	53
18348 W Gray Fox Trl	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,836 (-12%)	12mo	$395,990	$216	53
18381 W Gray Fox Trl	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,836 (-12%)	15mo	$408,990	$223	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $167,684
• Equity at exit: $387,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.53×
• Total profit: $545,648
• Equity at exit: $835,201

Cash invested: $120,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 17.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,746/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-1,041

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,391

Max offer price $246,001

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-798	-5% $-919	+0% $-1,041	+5% $-1,163	+10% $-1,284
Rent	-10% $-1,205	-5% $-1,123	+0% $-1,041	+5% $-959	+10% $-877
Rate	-1.0pp $-825	-0.5pp $-932	base $-1,041	+0.5pp $-1,152	+1.0pp $-1,266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,475
• Closing costs: $12,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18646 W Buckskin Trl Wittmann, AZ	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,000	$1.09	14d	1	0.34mi
18456 W Chama Dr Wittmann, AZ	4.0	3.0	2235	$2,295	$1.03	0d	1	0.56mi
18389 W Whispering Wind Dr Wittmann, AZ	3.0	2.0	1706	$1,900	$1.11	7d	1	0.67mi
17777 W Maya Way Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2126	$2,195	$1.03	0d	1	1.14mi
17770 W Red Bird Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1734	$1,900	$1.10	7d	1	1.17mi
17698 W Maya Way Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2115	$1,850	$0.87	5d	1	1.22mi
18023 W Soft Wind Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,799	$1.16	26d	1	1.33mi
17704 W Fetlock Trl Surprise, AZ	4.0	3.0	1834	$2,500	$1.36	0d	1	1.37mi
17937 W Soft Wind Dr Surprise, AZ	5.0	3.5	2340	$2,245	$0.96	7d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $429,900 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,900 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,900 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,900 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,900 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $429,900 Active 172 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $429,900 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $429,900 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $429,900 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $429,900 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $429,900 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $429,900 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,900 Active 160 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $429,900 Active 159 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    price $429,900 651-char remark

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    Private next-gen suite makes this home truly stand out. Complete with its own bedroom, full bath, and living area with plumbing for a future wet bar, it is ideal for multigenerational living or long-term guests while still connected to the main home. Inside, enjoy an open great room with soaring ceilings and tile wood-look flooring. The bright kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, an oversized island, and walk in pantry. Spacious primary suite with dual sinks and walk in closet. 3 car garage offers room for vehicles, storage, or hobbies. Covered patio and generous backyard ready for gatherings.

16. 2026-03-06
    status Active 651-char remark

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    Private next-gen suite makes this home truly stand out. Complete with its own bedroom, full bath, and living area with plumbing for a future wet bar, it is ideal for multigenerational living or long-term guests while still connected to the main home. Inside, enjoy an open great room with soaring ceilings and tile wood-look flooring. The bright kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, an oversized island, and walk in pantry. Spacious primary suite with dual sinks and walk in closet. 3 car garage offers room for vehicles, storage, or hobbies. Covered patio and generous backyard ready for gatherings.

17. 2026-03-01
    status Pending 651-char remark

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    Private next-gen suite makes this home truly stand out. Complete with its own bedroom, full bath, and living area with plumbing for a future wet bar, it is ideal for multigenerational living or long-term guests while still connected to the main home. Inside, enjoy an open great room with soaring ceilings and tile wood-look flooring. The bright kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, an oversized island, and walk in pantry. Spacious primary suite with dual sinks and walk in closet. 3 car garage offers room for vehicles, storage, or hobbies. Covered patio and generous backyard ready for gatherings.

18. 2026-02-03
    price $439,997 651-char remark

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    Private next-gen suite makes this home truly stand out. Complete with its own bedroom, full bath, and living area with plumbing for a future wet bar, it is ideal for multigenerational living or long-term guests while still connected to the main home. Inside, enjoy an open great room with soaring ceilings and tile wood-look flooring. The bright kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, an oversized island, and walk in pantry. Spacious primary suite with dual sinks and walk in closet. 3 car garage offers room for vehicles, storage, or hobbies. Covered patio and generous backyard ready for gatherings.

19. 2025-12-19
    listed $449,997 Active 651-char remark

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    Private next-gen suite makes this home truly stand out. Complete with its own bedroom, full bath, and living area with plumbing for a future wet bar, it is ideal for multigenerational living or long-term guests while still connected to the main home. Inside, enjoy an open great room with soaring ceilings and tile wood-look flooring. The bright kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, an oversized island, and walk in pantry. Spacious primary suite with dual sinks and walk in closet. 3 car garage offers room for vehicles, storage, or hobbies. Covered patio and generous backyard ready for gatherings.

20. 2024-02-09
    soldstatus $459,995 Closed 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Explore this exceptional Emerald home, ready for quick move-in on a homesite boasting driveway pavers and front yard landscaping. Included features: an inviting covered entry; a well-appointed kitchen offering 42'' cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, a roomy pantry and a center island; an elegant dining room; a spacious great room; a lavish primary suite showcasing a generous walk-in closet and a private bath with cultured marble countertops; a large living room; a convenient laundry; a covered patio and a 3-car garage. This home also offers stone tile flooring, ceiling fan prewiring and additional windows in select rooms. Tour today!

21. 2024-01-16
    status Pending 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Explore this exceptional Emerald home, ready for quick move-in on a homesite boasting driveway pavers and front yard landscaping. Included features: an inviting covered entry; a well-appointed kitchen offering 42'' cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, a roomy pantry and a center island; an elegant dining room; a spacious great room; a lavish primary suite showcasing a generous walk-in closet and a private bath with cultured marble countertops; a large living room; a convenient laundry; a covered patio and a 3-car garage. This home also offers stone tile flooring, ceiling fan prewiring and additional windows in select rooms. Tour today!

22. 2023-11-30
    status Active 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Explore this exceptional Emerald home, ready for quick move-in on a homesite boasting driveway pavers and front yard landscaping. Included features: an inviting covered entry; a well-appointed kitchen offering 42'' cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, a roomy pantry and a center island; an elegant dining room; a spacious great room; a lavish primary suite showcasing a generous walk-in closet and a private bath with cultured marble countertops; a large living room; a convenient laundry; a covered patio and a 3-car garage. This home also offers stone tile flooring, ceiling fan prewiring and additional windows in select rooms. Tour today!

23. 2023-09-16
    status Pending 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Explore this exceptional Emerald home, ready for quick move-in on a homesite boasting driveway pavers and front yard landscaping. Included features: an inviting covered entry; a well-appointed kitchen offering 42'' cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, a roomy pantry and a center island; an elegant dining room; a spacious great room; a lavish primary suite showcasing a generous walk-in closet and a private bath with cultured marble countertops; a large living room; a convenient laundry; a covered patio and a 3-car garage. This home also offers stone tile flooring, ceiling fan prewiring and additional windows in select rooms. Tour today!

24. 2023-09-01
    price $473,995 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Explore this exceptional Emerald home, ready for quick move-in on a homesite boasting driveway pavers and front yard landscaping. Included features: an inviting covered entry; a well-appointed kitchen offering 42'' cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, a roomy pantry and a center island; an elegant dining room; a spacious great room; a lavish primary suite showcasing a generous walk-in closet and a private bath with cultured marble countertops; a large living room; a convenient laundry; a covered patio and a 3-car garage. This home also offers stone tile flooring, ceiling fan prewiring and additional windows in select rooms. Tour today!

25. 2023-08-04
    listed $464,995 Active 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Explore this exceptional Emerald home, ready for quick move-in on a homesite boasting driveway pavers and front yard landscaping. Included features: an inviting covered entry; a well-appointed kitchen offering 42'' cabinets, quartz countertops, stainless-steel appliances, a roomy pantry and a center island; an elegant dining room; a spacious great room; a lavish primary suite showcasing a generous walk-in closet and a private bath with cultured marble countertops; a large living room; a convenient laundry; a covered patio and a 3-car garage. This home also offers stone tile flooring, ceiling fan prewiring and additional windows in select rooms. Tour today!

26. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus $13,138,650

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,746 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,837 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,091/yr (+$91/mo · 62.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,081
• − Property taxes: −$1,746
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$12,506
• Taxable loss: −$20,782
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,988
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• City population: 160,031
• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-96.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $429,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $439,997 ARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $449,997 ARMLS
• 2024-02-09 Sold (MLS) $459,995 ARMLS
• 2024-01-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-11-30 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-09-16 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-09-01 Price Changed $473,995 ARMLS
• 2023-08-04 Listed $464,995 ARMLS
• 2022-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $13,138,650 Public Records

Property tax history

+142.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,746 · +1944.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.