2315 49th St · Lubbock, TX 79412

$69,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1955 7,133 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,133 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential single-family home; Single-story (above-grade finished area listed)
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built area approximately 1,014 above-grade finished
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wheelock El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 323 students, 92% FRL); Slaton Middle (math 13% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 355 students, 96% FRL); Monterey H S (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,114 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 60% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,965 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.11%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $4,260
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $26,406
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79412

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,244/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $731

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $247	+0% $227	+5% $208	+10% $188
Rent	-10% $147	-5% $187	+0% $227	+5% $267	+10% $308
Rate	-1.0pp $262	-0.5pp $245	base $227	+0.5pp $209	+1.0pp $191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2315 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	21d	1	0.03mi
2316 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	21d	1	0.12mi
5005 Avenue W Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	759	$749	$0.99	45d	1	0.18mi
5005 Avenue W Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	759	$799	$1.05	21d	1	0.18mi
5005 Avenue W Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	759	$699	$0.92	14d	1	0.18mi
2402 46th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	942	$745	$0.79	21d	1	0.19mi
2406 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	943	$775	$0.82	21d	1	0.19mi
2412 46th St Apt A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	945	$795	$0.84	21d	1	0.20mi
2401 45th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	680	$845	$1.24	14d	3	0.22mi
2409 45th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	44d	1	0.23mi
2120 47th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	793	$795	$1.00	21d	1	0.27mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,225	$1.21	14d	23	0.30mi
2504 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	939	$995	$1.06	44d	1	0.35mi
2101 51st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$900	$0.82	21d	1	0.38mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	14d	1	0.41mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	44d	1	0.41mi
2607 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$1,325	$1.34	44d	1	0.42mi
2611 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	44d	1	0.43mi
4613 Belton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	734	$750	$1.02	44d	1	0.44mi
4609 Belton Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	751	$800	$1.07	44d	1	0.44mi
2701 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	657	$1,075	$1.64	14d	25	0.47mi
2514 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	943	$950	$1.01	14d	1	0.48mi
2706 44th St Apt C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$680	$0.76	44d	1	0.53mi
2521 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$925	$0.93	44d	1	0.53mi
1920 45th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	21d	1	0.55mi
2605 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	882	$995	$1.13	14d	1	0.55mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	21d	1	0.57mi
2302 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	793	$749	$0.94	21d	1	0.57mi
1920 44th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1391	$795	$0.57	21d	1	0.58mi
2521 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	902	$1,195	$1.32	21d	1	0.59mi
2304 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	830	$1,150	$1.39	21d	1	0.63mi
1717 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	830	$775	$0.93	21d	1	0.64mi
2815 43rd St Unit 11 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1085	$800	$0.74	21d	1	0.68mi
2812 43rd St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$750	$0.68	21d	1	0.68mi
2812 43rd St Unit 6 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$700	$0.63	44d	1	0.68mi
3006 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1016	$1,150	$1.13	21d	1	0.69mi
3006 46th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1047	$995	$0.95	21d	1	0.70mi
2906 43rd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	870	$850	$0.98	21d	1	0.70mi
1710 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$595	$0.83	14d	1	0.71mi
2108 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	44d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $69,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,244 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,245 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$2,244
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$978
• − Management: −$978
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $1,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$433
• After-tax cash flow: $2,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,018
• Household income: $48,878
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 676.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 25% White 25% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.95%
• Current HPI: 188.4033
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $69,000 LARMLS
• 2021-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,244 · -5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.