516 S Martin Luther King Jr Dr · Springfield, IL 62703

$54,793

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · Other · 35 Days on market

6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property in unincorporated area (Capital Township)
• HOA & community: No master association fees required

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Fee simple ownership; Built before 1978; Estimated living area
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 152.50 x 40; Lot is less than 0.25 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (main level, approx. 9 x 9); Second bedroom (main level, approx. 9 x 9)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Family room; Laundry room; Two total rooms listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $379 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $53,149 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.73%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $28,670
• Equity at exit: $8,170

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $92,915
• Equity at exit: $4,737

Cash invested: $15,342 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62703

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,132 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$287
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,063/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $505

Max offer price $54,793

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,698
• Closing costs: $1,644
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2213 E Adams St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	43d	1	0.59mi
1104 S 11th St Unit A Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	43d	1	0.66mi
1929 E Spruce St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	43d	1	0.81mi
507 S Wesley St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$975	$1.22	43d	1	0.85mi
2005 E Laurel St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	43d	1	0.87mi
302 Forrest Ave Springfield, IL	3.0	2.0	924	$1,069	$1.16	21d	1	0.95mi
1214 S 7th St Unit C Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	43d	1	0.96mi
619 S 5th St Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	43d	1	1.01mi
8 S Old State Capitol Plz Unit 1031831P Springfield, IL	2.0	2.0	990	$2,927	$2.96	43d	1	1.02mi
417 E Cook St Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	700	$875	$1.25	43d	1	1.02mi
920 N 19th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	21d	1	1.08mi
400 E Jefferson St Springfield, IL	2.0	1.0	1420	$1,220	$0.86	43d	1	1.12mi
525 E Pine St Springfield, IL	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,200	$0.96	43d	1	1.16mi
525 E Pine St Unit 4 Springfield, IL	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,200	$0.96	21d	1	1.16mi
1600 S 6th St Unit 1 Springfield, IL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	21d	1	1.19mi
1726 S 6th St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.5	1408	$1,500	$1.07	43d	1	1.26mi
1004 S College St Springfield, IL	1.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	21d	1	1.43mi
229 W Allen St Springfield, IL	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,305	$1.24	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $54,793 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,793 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,793 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,793 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,793 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $54,793 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,793 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $54,793 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,793 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $54,793 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,793 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $54,793 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $54,793 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,793 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,793 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,793 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $54,793 Active 15 DOM
18. 2025-02-03
    soldstatus $705,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,063 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,153 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$90/yr (+$8/mo · 8.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,069
• − Property taxes: −$1,063
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,086
• − Management: −$1,086
• − Depreciation: −$1,594
• Taxable income: $5,406
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,297
• After-tax cash flow: $4,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #2138

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, IL
• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 28,922
• Household income: $45,009
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1626.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.69%
• Current HPI: 147.0877
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.19%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $705,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,063 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.