3263 Vineyard Ave #200 · Pleasanton, CA 94566

$194,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured public records · 94 Days on market

Built 2014 $217/sqft · 85% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable singlewide available in Pleasanton's Vineyard Estates (55+ community). This home has 2 opposite end bedrooms; kitchen with solid surface countertops and black finish appliances; LTV flooring; laundry closet with stackable washer & dryer; large shed; long driveway; great location overlooking creek; energy star certified & more. Ready for move in.

Key facts

• Ltv flooring
• Laundry closet
• Long driveway

Tags

• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• BLACK FINISH APPLIANCES
• LTV FLOORING
• LAUNDRY CLOSET
• LARGE SHED
• LONG DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 1.3% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in CA, #655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Pleasanton Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #43 of 1,400 in CA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Vintage Hills Elementary (538 students, 5% FRL); Pleasanton Middle (1,050 students, 12% FRL); Amador Valley High (2,665 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,359 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.52%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,500
• List price: $194,900
• Delta: 84.74%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3231 Vineyard Ave #126	0.15mi	2/2.0	880 (-2%)	5mo	$52,000	$59	85
3231 Vineyard Ave., #83 #83	0.23mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	24mo	$88,000	$92	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $57,822
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $195,375
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94566

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,094 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,072/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $1,251

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,510

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,362	-5% $1,307	+0% $1,251	+5% $1,196	+10% $1,141
Rent	-10% $1,007	-5% $1,129	+0% $1,251	+5% $1,374	+10% $1,496
Rate	-1.0pp $1,350	-0.5pp $1,301	base $1,251	+0.5pp $1,201	+1.0pp $1,150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3819 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	863	$2,940	$3.40	0d	14	0.71mi
835 Palomino Dr Unit 2 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$2,850	$2.64	22d	1	0.72mi
3849 Vineyard Ave Unit B Pleasanton, CA	1.0	1.0	611	$2,500	$4.09	45d	1	0.75mi
3847 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,700	$3.00	18d	1	0.75mi
3851 Vineyard Ave Unit D Pleasanton, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,995	$3.33	45d	1	0.77mi
3955 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	829	$5,000	$6.03	0d	5	0.85mi
4320 Valley Ave Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1073	$3,474	$3.24	4d	2	1.41mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,900 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,900 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $194,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-03-19
    listed $199,900 Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Adorable singlewide available in Pleasanton's Vineyard Estates (55+ community). This home has 2 opposite end bedrooms; kitchen with solid surface countertops and black finish appliances; LTV flooring; laundry closet with stackable washer & dryer; large shed; long driveway; great location overlooking creek; energy star certified & more. Ready for move in.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,072 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,481 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$409/yr (+$34/mo · 38.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$1,072
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,970
• − Management: −$2,970
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable income: $12,551
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,012
• After-tax cash flow: $12,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasanton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $123,770
• Composite: 73.12/100
• National rank: #351
• State rank: #43 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pleasanton

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #655

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pleasanton, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 78,550
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,222
• Household income: $191,155
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 38% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Chinese 10% Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -841.68%
• Current HPI: 308.8324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.04%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $199,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,072 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.